CARIBBEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM Cari COF Barbados March
CARIBBEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (Cari. COF) Barbados, March 1 st, 2012 Creating a Climate Outlook Forum. The Central American Experience Patricia Ramírez O Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) Comité Regional de Recursos Hidráulicos (CRRH)
2001 Climate information for vulnerability reduction in Central America An activity in the after “Mitch” Reconstruction Process CRRH-SICA/Central America NMHSs Reach out to organizations working in agriculture, food security, health and water management to evaluate potential use of the information produced by RCOFS. ØReduce RCOF cost through “distant” work.
2001 Climate information for vulnerability reduction in Central America An activity in the after “Mitch” Reconstruction Process CRRH-SICA/Central America NMHSs Objective: ØStreghening regional capacity to regular production and dissemination of climate information and outlooks.
How to get from global products to local regional scale How to add value to the available global information and data to produce climate information relevant for interested users ?
Step by step : How Identification of climate sensitive sectors information needs: Networking to build-up a regional group of people with interest in disscussing climate and relevant information (NWSs, Research Centers, and private sector) Encourage a group of interested climatologist (at least one per country to engage into “Virtual” discussion ( Internet) about global and regional climate. Promotion of the use of common methodologuies and tools for the analysis Capacity building (at least an annual workshop) Partnership with the local scientist communities (ie Center for Geophysical Research/University of Costa Rica) to advance research on regional climate drivers
How Steps : Strenghening of tools for climate data analysis at country level (Tool development and implementation) Partnership with local scientist communities ( Center for Geophysical Research/University of Costa Rica), to advance research on regional climate drivers.
3. Outreach to stakeholders in climate sensitive sectors Data base of internet of potential users, likely to be reached by internet build –up and up-dated on quaterly bases used to ditribute COFs results • • Press conferences in the each country inmediately after COF venue. • Video conferences connecting stakeholders in key sectors for face to face presentation of Seasonal Climate Outlook. 7
3. Outreach to stakeholders in climate sensitive sectors • • Survey with users. • Promotion of alliances with other regional organizations interested in climate risk management in their sectors. • Promotion of Climate Outlooks Application Forum (CA-COAF) 8
2000 -2010 Central America Climate Forum Global Centers Products Analysis & Discussion Research Centers Seasonal Outlooks National “scaling” and dissemination Internet Comunidad de Aprendizaje NMHSs own country climate analysis: PERSPECTIVA CLIMÁTICA REGIONAL Press and Video Conferences/web Water Management “FORO VIRTUAL” Health Agriculture Food Security Energy Media Sectoral Users (Internet) Emergency Managers
CPT/IRI ASO 2010
Panama, CPT /IRI results for D 09 -M 10 Niño 3 Niño 1. 2
Contingency Analysis <= Probabilidad Condicional de observar un escenario BN en la Precipitación de la CP 1 en el trimestre ASO dado que se observaron valores BN de AMO-N 3 y del AMO-(PDO+N 3) y AN de N 3, durante el bimestre anterior de MJ. Valores comparados con MJ, 1971 -2000
Base de Datos (CRRH/BID-Bien Público Regional) BD Nacional, Panamá BD Nacional, Nicaragua BD Regional BD Nacional , El Salvador Internet BD Nacional , Guatemala BD Nacional Honduras BD Nacional, Costa Rica BD Nacional Belice
PERSPECTIVAS CLIMATICAS Trimestre mayo-julio 2011 Lluvias de normal a arriba lo normal Para el trimestre de mayo a julio de 2011 no se pronostican condiciones secas para ninguna zona del país, por el contrario, hay altas probabilidades de escenarios lluviosos (arriba lo normal, áreas color azul en el mapa), zonas central y occidental del país: El resto del país presentaría lluvias en el rango de los promedios (normal, áreas color verde en el mapa): Lluvias entre 609 y 1102 milímetros en el trimestre
PERSPECTIVAS CLIMATICAS MAYO-AGOSOTO 2011 Inicio Época Lluviosa 2011 En abril comenzarían las lluvias, propias de la transición de la estación seca a la lluviosa. Condiciones favorables para establecimiento pleno de la época lluviosa en la primera quincena de mayo en el occidente y centro del país y en la segunda quincena en el resto del territorio nacional. Es bastante probable, que en algunos lugares del país, el inicio de la estación lluviosa ocurra adelantado de una a dos semanas (zonas central-occidental del país), respecto a la fecha promedio del 21 de mayo.
Food Seccurity Climate Rsik Forum SE-CRRH (Secretario Ejecutivo Max Campos) Area CLIMA (Coordinadora Patricia Ramírez) Foro Climático América Central Resultados COF CRRH Apoyo financiero: PRESANCA (SICA-UE) INCAP-SISCA Patricia Palma, Directora Regional Brenda Molina, Oficial Financiera, PNUD. Foro de Aplicaciones de las Perspectivas Climáticas a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional COF-SAN Resultados COF SAN Difusión Regional de Resultados COF CRRH y CAPC--SAN SE CRRH-INCAP Apoyo Técnico INSIVUMEHGuatemala Cengicaña-Guatemala NMS-Belice SMN-Honduras INETER-Nicaragua SNET-El Salvador IMN-Costa Rica ICE-Costa Rica UCR-CIGEFI-Costa Rica ETESA-Panamá ACP-Panamá Apoyo Técnico CRRH-COF CLIMA PRESANCA SISCA FEMICA INCAP FOCAR CEPREDENAC CAC-CORECA
Presidents and Head of States CRRH- Climate Outlook SG-SICA -Regional Secretariats for Agriculture , Water and Sanitation, Health, Fisheries, Risk Management , Food Security Information & expertise CA COF Members expertise Information &expertise CA- Co. F members expertise Interpreted Outlook (web) and internet CA COF Members expertise Food Security National Committees Polítical authority Information and expertise Technical Authority Ministries of Agriculture Recomendation consultation National Fisheries authorities Follow-up Coordinación
Creating CA-COF: Lessons learned Climate sensitive sectors are very receptive to any piece of information for risk management NMHSs may provide. Confidence increased as long as the communication between climatologists and sectoral experts grew and outlooks provided more relevant information for them. Feedback from the users provided guidance for the climatologists work and helped to identify applied research agenda. (survey about the use and interest with them helped to increase understanding about do’s and don’ts)
Creating CA-COF: Lessons learned Capacities and resource integration at regional level ( Central America) showed to be a cost effective mean to enhace the offer of climate information and services by NMHSs. Networking with specialized agencies working with users sectors (agriculture, food security, rosk management, water and sanitation and health) created also agenda for partner research institutions and NMHSs. Present “Outlooks” as sectoral climate risk sessonal scenarios is increasing receptiveness and support from user sectors
FCAC 2000 -2011: Finnancial support received from: • • Central American Countries governments NOAA/USA Government of China-Taiwan Mesoamerican Cooperation Program (México-SICA) WMO- Spain Trust Fund GEF-UNEP-TWAS: Project for Adaptation to Cl. Ch (AIACC) EU : PREVDA and PRESANCA Programs Tool Development and trainning: • University of Costa Rica • IRI • UCSB 22
December 2002 XXII Central America Presidents and Head of States Adopts the Regional Estrategy for Agriculture y Food Security The Summit Declaration recognized the CA-COF as “authorized sources of information for climate and climate Outlooks to guide goverments seasonal and long term climate risk management. 23
2010 XXXIII Central America Presidents and Head of States Regional Strategy for Climate Change (ERCC) Area No 1: Vunerability adaptation to climate a variability and Climate change Actions : Strmghen and support climate information platforms including Regional Climate Data Base anf CA-COF 24
December 2002 XXII Central America Presidents and Head of States Adopts the Regional Estrategy for Agriculture y Food Security The Summit Declaration recognized the CA-COF as “authorized sources of information for climate and climate Outlooks to guide goverments seasonal and long term climate risk management. 25
December 2012 XXXVIII Summit of Central America Presidents and Head of States Fortalecer las capacidades de las instituciones regionales y nacionales para generar, analizar y comunicar información que permita evaluar la amenaza climática por parte de las instituciones que tienen el mandato. “ Fortalecer la capacidad para el monitoreo y análisis de los eventos extremos, como base para el seguimiento de la variabilidad del clima necesaria para la toma de decisiones 26
Creating CA-COF: Lessons learned Regional Climate Forum proved to be a cost efficient way to produce and disseminating information valuable for risk reduction of vulnerability. Networking between climate information producers, and agriculture, food security, health, risk management organizations helped to overcome resource limitations. .
Challenges ahead Take advantage of new tools for group discussion (i. e. Learning community … http: //coat. cathalac. org, facebook, net meeting, others) Improve tools (use of regional model, downscaling, data rescue) to cope with increasing demand from users and governments.
Example: RESULTADOS DICIEMBRE 2011 DE LOS 5 MIEMBROS CPTEC product for CA. CPTEC (Brasil) contribution to to CA-COF trough IMN, Costa Rica 29
Challenges ahead Empowering social groups to use climate information and otulooks to promote climate information aplication for risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. Pilot project in Guatemala Altiplano, to develop capacity of local producer and local authorities to understand climate outlooks and develop their own scenarios based on local knowlege (CRRH, INSIVUMEH, Central America Institute for Food Security-(INCAP- with the support of AID) wil start in april 2012
Climate information and forecast can help to make the difference Thank you Muchas Gracias Patricia Ramírez O. , MSc Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) Comité Regional de Recursos Hidráulicos (CRRH)
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