Cari COF Climate Outlook SeptemberOctoberNovember 2018 and DecemberJanuaryFebruary

Cari. COF Climate Outlook September-October-November 2018 and December-January-February 2018 -'19 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC

RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON source: NOAA CPC NMME , August ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over data SON Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 166 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 404 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 161 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 404 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 178 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 183 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 173 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF source: NOAA CPC NMME , August ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over data DJF Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 120 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 388 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 151 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 388 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 418 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 418 Stations : 10 !Limited! Experiment 1 !Limited!

CPT probabilistic DJF Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 471 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 195 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 418 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 181 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 418 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) December-January-February 2018 -'19 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 5) CFSv 2 model 6) Météo. France Arpège model. 7) JMA model 8) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) The SST anomalies have increased to 0 -0. 5°C in the Niño 3. 4 region of the Pacific. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs have remained cool (anomaly of around 0 to -1°C) in the Caribbean Sea and further east, with even larger anomalies off the coast of West Africa, while remaining above average (+0. 5 to +1°C) further north. 2) A majority of models forecast continued warming of the Niño 3. 4 region in JAS and OND, with ~55% suggesting neutral ENSO conditions for JAS, while 60 -65% suggest El Niño conditions by OND. Models further indicate sustained positive anomalies to the north of the region by OND. They also suggest below-average temperatures to dominate the TNA during JAS, while the negative anomalies are forecast to lessen by OND. 3) While neutral, ENSO will exert minimal influence on Caribbean rainfall and temperature. Rather, with below-average SSTs in and eastward of the region, below-average humidity and atmospheric instability is expected in JAS, tilting the odds towards cooler air temperatures (especially at night) and towards drier conditions across the Caribbean. 4) If El Niño manifests by OND, an enhanced sub-tropical jet would tend to increase precipitation in the north, while increased wind shear further south would reduce precipitation there. El Niño would increase wind shear further south, and reduce storminess and precipitation there, as well as decrease the potential for strong late-season hurricane activity.

Probabilistic SON rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

2 M TEMPERATURE: MEAN MAXIMUM MINIMUM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON data source: NOAA CPC NMME , August ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF data source: NOAA CPC NMME , August ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 159 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 0059 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 252 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Fair CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 159 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 252 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 159 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Limited NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 163 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 44 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 062 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 44 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 195 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 43 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 166 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 43 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 195 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 43 Stations : 10 Limited NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 166 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 43 Stations : 10 Limited NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) December-January-February 2018 -'19 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic DJF Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 241 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 117 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 238 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 173 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 238 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 173 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 134 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 087 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !!Very. Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 23 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 121 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 121 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) December - January - February 2018 -'19 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic DJF Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 079 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very. Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : -0. 026 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Negative Skill ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 108 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 086 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very. Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 108 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 086 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !!Very. Limited!! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 117 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 016 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 109 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 090 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 109 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 090 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! NMME Y modes : 8 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) December-January-February 2018 -'19 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic DJF Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASON CCA experiments: 1. 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASON Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 417 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 221 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 417 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON 2017 -’ 18 CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 236 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 377 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of November 2018 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Assistant Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Shorter term Drought Outlook (June to November 2018) Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (August 2018): As we transition from the dry season into the wet season, we are currently not seeing any shorter term drought concern developing throughout the region. Exceptions are: A drought watch is issued for Barbados, northern Belize, Cayman, Grenada, northern Haiti, southwestern Puerto Rico and Tobago. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Long term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30 th, 2018)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through July 2018, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-1. 3 (very dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought watch is issued for Antigua, NW Belize, Cayman Is. and St. Kitts. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of July 2018): (more information here) – In parts of Barbados and the Leewards, as well as in southern-most Hispaniola the period May to July has been severely dry or worse, meaning short-term drought has manifested there. – Long term drought? ? ? ? • Shorter term drought situation (by the end of November 2018): – Shorter term drought might possibly develop in Barbados, northern Belize, Cayman, Grenada, northern Haiti, southwestern Puerto Rico and Tobago. • Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2018): – Long term drought might possibly develop in Antigua, northwestern Belize, Cayman Is. and St. Kitts. * We advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates. * caricof@cimh. edu. bb CONTINUE TO MONITOR & CONSERVE WATER !!

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 33. 3333 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 33. 3334 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 83. 3333 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency ≥ 83. 3334 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – Wet days and Wet spells Outlooks September to November 2018 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: September to November 2018 SON 2018 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Out of 91 days in Sep-Oct-Nov, there about 35 to 50 wet days (coastal Guianas: 20 -35; ABC Islands: 10 -20). FORECAST: SON rainfall may be drier than usual throughout the region except Bahamas and Cayman Isl. , with fewer wet days across the region except for a small increase in in the Guianas (medium confidence). IMPLICATIONS: • Annual peak in frequency of rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities throughout Belize and the islands. • Slightly less reliable rains than usual, but unlikely to severely impact agriculture.

Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: September to November 2018 SON 2018 frequency of 7 -day wet spells Wet days outlook SON 2018 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells USUALLY: Between 3 and 6 wet spells (coastal Guianas: 1 -3) occur from September to November, with 1 to 4 of them ending up very wet (coastal Guianas: up to 2). FORECAST: SON rainfall may be drier than usual throughout the region except Bahamas and Cayman Isl. , with fewer wet days (medium confidence), wet spells and very wet spells across the region (low to medium confid. ) except for a small increase in the number of wet days in the Guianas (medium confid. ). IMPLICATIONS: • Recharge rates of large water reservoirs associated with the wet season potentially slower than usual. • Flood potential slightly reduced during peak season for long-term flooding in Belize and the islands.

Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: September to November 2018 SON 2018 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook USUALLY: Up to 2 extreme wet spell occur from September to November, except in the Guianas where it is the dry season. FORECAST: : SON rainfall may be drier than usual throughout the region except Bahamas and Cayman Isl. , with fewer wet days (medium confidence), wet spells and very wet spells across the region (low to medium confidence) except for a small increase in the number of wet days in the Guianas (medium confidence). By contrast, no substantial shift in extreme wet spells is forecast (low confid. ). Very wet spells outlook IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is a concern throughout the region, including coastal Guianas from November onwards.

Climatology Forecast 29 -41 27 -39 2. 6 -4. 9 2. 2 -4. 6 0. 9 -3 0. 8 -3 0 -1. 3 6 -17 4 -15 1. 2 -3. 9 0. 6 -3. 8 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 2 -2. 1 0 -0. 9 0 -0 37 -48 32 -46 3. 4 -6. 4 3 -6 1. 4 -3. 2 1. 3 -3. 4 0 -1. 2 39 -49 36 -47 3. 9 -6. 2 3. 5 -6. 1 1. 6 -3. 9 1. 2 -3. 7 0 -1. 5 37 -49 31 -47 2. 8 -5. 6 2. 8 -5. 9 1. 3 -3. 4 1. 3 -3. 7 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 4 31 -44 27 -45 3. 4 -6. 2 3. 1 -6. 5 1. 2 -3. 4 1. 1 -3. 7 0 -1 0 -0. 9 10 -18 8 -16 1. 4 -3. 9 1 -3. 7 0. 4 -1. 7 0. 1 -1. 6 0 -1 0 -0. 2 24 -34 21 -32 3 -5. 1 2. 6 -5. 2 1. 7 -3. 3 1. 3 -3. 3 0 -1. 3 52 -64 46 -60 3. 7 -7. 2 3. 4 -7. 3 1. 8 -5. 4 1. 4 -5. 2 0 -2. 5 0 -2. 3 56 -69 53 -68 2. 9 -6. 6 2. 2 -6 0. 9 -3. 2 0. 8 -3. 4 0 -1. 1 39 -48 36 -51 3. 9 -6. 4 3. 1 -6. 2 1. 7 -3. 6 1. 2 -3. 9 0 -2 0 -1. 7 17 -26 15 -26 1. 7 -4. 1 1. 3 -4. 3 0. 4 -2. 4 0. 4 -2. 2 0 -0. 1 26 -41 22 -40 2. 1 -4. 8 1. 9 -4. 6 0. 9 -3 0. 7 -2. 6 0 -1 0 -0. 9 32 -46 29 -44 2. 1 -5. 1 1. 7 -5. 1 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 8 -2. 5 0 -1 0 -0. 9 27 -42 22 -40 1. 7 -4. 3 1. 3 -4 0. 4 -2. 7 0. 3 -2. 4 0 -1 0 -0. 8 35 -51 31 -51 1. 7 -4. 3 1. 4 -4 0. 4 -2. 5 0. 5 -2. 2 0 -1 0 -0. 4 34 -51 32 -58 1. 8 -5. 4 1. 7 -6. 2 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 7 -3 0 -1. 4 31 -44 29 -43 1. 8 -4. 7 1. 6 -4. 4 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 5 -2. 4 0 -1 0 -0. 8 32 -38 28 -38 2. 1 -3. 9 1. 5 -3. 8 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 6 -2. 4 0 -1. 3 45 -58 42 -58 2. 1 -4. 7 1. 9 -4. 5 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 7 -2. 2 0 -1 0 -0. 4 39 -52 37 -51 2. 1 -4. 3 2 -4. 7 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 6 -2. 5 0 -0. 8 0 -0. 5 28 -42 25 -39 2. 6 -5. 6 2. 2 -5. 2 0. 9 -3 0. 8 -3 0 -2 0 -1. 7 53 -64 48 -60 3. 9 -7 3. 3 -6. 5 1. 7 -3. 7 1. 2 -3. 8 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 6 36 -50 32 -50 2. 7 -5. 4 2. 4 -5. 6 0. 9 -3. 2 0. 8 -3. 2 0 -1. 3 44 -59 39 -56 3. 4 -5. 6 2. 9 -5. 7 1. 7 -3. 4 1. 1 -3. 6 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 6 33 -49 29 -49 2. 2 -5. 7 1. 9 -5. 1 0. 9 -3 0. 6 -2. 8 0 -1 56 -65 53 -67 3. 4 -5. 5 3. 2 -5. 7 1. 3 -3. 3 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 4 36 -51 35 -53 1. 9 -3. 4 1. 7 -3. 5 0. 7 -1. 7 0. 6 -1. 9 0 -1. 4 47 -59 47 -58 4 -6. 4 3. 5 -6. 3 1. 5 -3. 4 1. 4 -3. 6 0 -1. 3 36 -53 34 -56 3. 4 -5. 6 3 -5. 7 1. 7 -3. 4 1. 4 -3. 2 0 -1. 2 grey none are expected No. of 7 -day very wet spells No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells (10% wettest) (1% wettest) dark blue an increase, Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Guyana_Wales Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, September to November 2018

Dry Spells Outlook for September to November 2018 (experimental) Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

How many 7 -day, 10 -day or 15 -day dry spells do we historically get on average from September to November? 10 -day dry spells 7 -day dry spells 15 -day dry spells

7 -day dry spells from September to November 2018 What is the FORECAST for September to November 2018? Historical avg. number of 7 -day dry spells Probability of at least THREE 7 -day dry spells MAX number of 7 -day dry spells

15 -day dry spells from September to November 2018 What is the FORECAST for September to November 2018? Historical avg. number of 15 -day dry spells Probability of at least ONE 15 -day dry spell MAX number of 15 -day dry spells

September to November 2018 Antigua (Green. Cas) Aruba (Beatrix) Bahamas (Freeport) Bahamas (New. Provi) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize_Belmopan Belize (C. Farm) Belize_Melinda Belize_PG-Airpor Belize_PGorda Belize_Towerhill Cayman Cuba_Camaguey Cuba_Casablanca Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana_Apaikwa Guyana_Bmont 7 Guyana_Bmont. Fron No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast 1 -3 6 -10 1 -3 1 -3 0 -2 1 -3 1 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 -1 1 -4 1 -4 3 -7 7 -10 0 -1 2 -5 0 -3 3 -6 1 -4 2 -5 1 -4 6 -11 1 -3 0 -3 0 -3 1 -4 0 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1 -4 1 -5 3 -8 7 -10 0 -1 3 -6 0 -3 2 -6 1 -4 2 -6 2 -5 0 -2 3 -7 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 1 -4 3 -6 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 1 -3 1 -2 0 -2 3 -10 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 1 -5 3 -8 0 -0 0 -3 0 -1 0 -4 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 1 -4 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -3 1 -5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1

September to November 2018 cont’d No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast Guyana (Charity) Guyana_De. Kindren Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana_La. Bagat Guyana_Leon. Front Guyana_Mc. Nabb. B Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana_Onderneem Guyana (Skeldon) 2 -5 1 -3 2 -5 0 -3 1 -5 2 -6 1 -4 3 -4 2 -7 2 -5 1 -4 2 -6 0 -3 1 -4 2 -6 1 -4 2 -5 2 -7 2 -5 0 -2 1 -3 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 1 -2 0 -5 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 -1 0 -3 0 -5 0 -3 1 -3 0 -5 0 -2 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica_Manley Jamaica_Worthy-P Jamaica_bodles Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) St. Maarten (TNCM) Suriname (Zanderij) Trinidad (Piarco) Tobago (ANR Robinson) 0 -2 6 -9 1 -4 6 -9 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 5 -11 1 -4 5 -9 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 -4 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 2 -5 0 -2 2 -5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 2 -6 0 -3 2 -6 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -0 1 -2 0 -0 0 -4 0 -0 0 -3 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0

Heat Outlook for September 2018 to February 2019 Heat more bearably than in most recent years Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK 1 (cmeerbeeck@cimh. edu. bb), Dr. Simon MASON 2, Dr. Hannah Nissan 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2 , Wazita Scott 1 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Dec-Jan-Feb 2018 -’ 19 Sep-Oct-Nov 2018 How hot will the next three to six months be? Night time Day time USUALLY: • The hotter part of the year ends in October in Belize and the islands, in November in the Guianas. • Temperatures comfortable from December to February throughout the region. FORECAST: Milder Usual Hotter 1. For the first time since a number of years, the forecast suggests temperatures may not be significantly warmer than usual between September and November. 2. That said, some areas may still experience warmer than usual temperatures, associated with generally drier conditions than usual, and, in the northwestern parts of the Caribbean, due to above-average ocean temperatures.

How many heatwave days do we historically get on average? From September to November 0 7 14 21 28 USUALLY: • In most years, up to 7 heatwave days are counted from September to November in the Bahamas, Belize, and the Greater Antilles, 7 -14 in the Lesser Antilles and 14 -21 in the Guianas. • September is the month in which all stations can record heatwaves, i. e. the peak of the hotter season.

What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from September to November 2018? FORECAST: • 60 -80% chance that there will be at least 7 heatwave days from September to November 2018 in the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southwards as well as in the Guianas. • A few locations in Barbados, the Windwards and the Guianas could record 14 heatwave days.

How will heat affect the Caribbean from July till September 2018? FORECAST: 1. For the first time since a number of years, the forecast suggests temperatures may not be significantly warmer than usual between September and November. 2. That said, some areas may still experience warmer than usual temperatures, associated with generally drier conditions than usual, and, in the northwestern parts of the Caribbean, due to above-average ocean temperatures. 3. 60 -80% chance that there will be at least 7 heatwave days from September to November 2018 in the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southwards as well as in the Guianas. A few locations in Barbados, the Windwards and the Guianas could record 14 heatwave days. IMPLICATIONS: • Some Heat stress in the vulnerable population & small livestock until October (or November in the Guianas), but unlikely to the same extent as in recent years. • By consequence, cooling needs until October are reduced compared to recent years. • Nevertheless, the occurrence of a few heatwaves in many locations is likely to temporarily increase heat stress in human populations or livestock, especially in areas that experience unusually dry conditions.

APPENDIX

Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/mean-temperature-anomalies/

Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-monthly-rainfall/ https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/spi-monitor/

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – NMME Predicted SSTs El Niño region Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/seasanom. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season 4. png Caribbean & tropical Atlantic

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted SSTs https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_ssto? time=2018010100, 744, 2018020100&stats=ensm

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_rain

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NMME – probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/nmme/probabilistic_seasonal/nmme_precip_probabilistic. shtml#CENTRAL AMERICA

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast – need to update SON 2018 (0. 5 month lead) DJF 2018 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf 2

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_2 mtm

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2 m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic T 2 m forecast SON 2018 (0. 5 month lead) DJF 2018 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf 2

caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425 -1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424 -4733