Cari COF Climate Outlook JuneJulyAugust 2018 and SeptemberOctoberNovember

Cari. COF Climate Outlook June-July-August 2018 and September-October-November 2018 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC

RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML): JJA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr 3. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , May (Initialisation). 4. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA 5. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). 6. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May ( initialisation). 7. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 223 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 415 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 211 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 415 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 313 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 415 Stations : 10 Good CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 288 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 415 Stations : 10 Experiment 1 Fair caricof@ci!Fair!0. 070 m. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 471 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : 429 Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 427 Stations : 10 NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 427 Stations : 10 NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Index : 0. 261 Fair Index : 0. 277 Fair caricof@cimh. edu. bb

RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over April(data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). April Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over April Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , May(initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, May ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 133 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 409 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 128 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 409 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 199 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 409 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 164 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 409 Stations : 10 Experiment 1 !Limited! caricof@cih. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 468 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : 426 Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 196 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 172 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6) CFSv 2 model 7) Météo. France Arpège model. 8) JMA model 9) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) The Cool SST anomalies between -0. 5°C and -1°C in the Niño 3. 4 region of the Pacific associated with a weak La Niña since August have faded in April, marking an end to the La Niña event. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) have been around average (anomalies of -0. 5°C to +0. 5°C), with the exception of coastal portions off West Africa (-0. 5°C to -1°C), and in portions of the western Caribbean Sea and north of Cuba (+0. 5 to +1°C). 2) Most models suggest neutral ENSO conditions for JJA. Model confidence for ENSO neutral conditions is ~65% for JJA and ~40 - 45% for SON. Most models suggest El Nino conditions to appear later in the year, with a confidence of 40 -50% by SON. Models further suggest sustained positive anomalies in the TNA north of the region by SON. They also suggest temperatures below-average to dominate the TNA further south and east during JJA. 3) If the present neutral conditions remain in place until JJA, ENSO will exert minimal influence on Caribbean rainfall and temperature. Rather, a cool TNA around and east of much of the region reduces rainfall chances and tends to reduce total rainfall for JJA (except in the Guianas), as well as tend to keep minimum temperatures below average. 4) By contrast, warm SSTs around the northern Caribbean may lead to above-average humidity, as well as enhanced atmospheric instability. Such conditions, as well as an enhanced sub-tropical jet in the north associated with a possible transition to El Niño by November would tend to increase precipitation in the northern half of the region during the latter part of the wet season. El Niño would increase wind shear further south, and reduce storminess and precipitation there.

Probabilistic JJA rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

2 M TEMPERATURE: MEAN MAXIMUM MINIMUM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over April (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over April Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , May initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over April (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over April Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , May initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JJA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 216 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 182 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 46 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 242 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 226 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 237 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 244 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JJA Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 128 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 058 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 165 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 259 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 208 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JJA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 203 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 179 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 209 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 204 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 190 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JJA Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 185 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 102 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 220 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 239 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 205 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JJA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 162 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 211 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 171 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 210 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 189 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JJA Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 056 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 032 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 103 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 116 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 197 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 131 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic SON Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic MAMJJA CCA experiments: 1. 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over April (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over April caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic MAMJJA Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 232 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 414 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 182 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 414 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON 2017 -’ 18 CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over April (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 240 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 377 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of August 2018 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Assistant Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Shorter term Drought Outlook (March to August 2018) Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (May 2018): 2018 As we transition from the dry season into the wet season, we are currently not seeing any shorter term drought concern developing throughout the region. Exceptions are: A drought watch is issued for Barbados, southeastern Belize, eastern and northern Dom. Republic, St. Kitts and Tobago. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Long term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30 th, 2018)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through April 2018, 2018 with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-1. 3 (very dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought watch is in effect for western Cuba and northern French Guiana. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of April 2018): (more information here) – The dry season received a good amount of rainfall due to the presence of a weak La Niña. – Short term drought conditions are seen in Cayman, Western Cuba and St. Kitts & Nevis, though not severe. • Shorter term drought situation (by the end of August 2018): – Shorter term drought might possibly develop in Barbados, south-eastern Belize, eastern and northern Dom. Republic, St. Kitts and Tobago. • Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2018): – Long term drought might possibly develop in western Cuba and northern French Guiana. * We advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates. * caricof@cimh. edu. bb CONTINUE TO MONITOR & CONSERVE WATER !!

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 33. 3333 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 33. 3334 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 83. 3333 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency ≥ 83. 3334 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – Wet days and Wet spells Outlooks June to August 2018 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: June to August 2018 JJA 2018 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Out of 92 days in June-July. August, there about 30 to 45 wet days in relatively flat areas of Belize and the islands, but 50 to 65 in mountainous areas and in coastal Guianas (ABC Islands: 5 -15). FORECAST: JJA rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days, except in the Guianas which are likely to be at least as wet as usual, with an increase in wet days (medium confidence). IMPLICATIONS: • Surface wetness increasing slower than usual after the dry season in Belize and the islands. • Less reliable rains for agriculture than usual in Belize and the islands. • Increasing frequency of rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities.

Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: June to August 2018 JJA 2018 frequency of 7 -day wet spells USUALLY: 3 to 6 wet spells (ABC Islands: up to 3) occur from June to August, with 1 to 3 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 2). Wet days outlook FORECAST: JJA rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (medium confidence), except in the Guianas which are likely to be at least as wet as usual, with an increase in wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (low to medium confid. ). JJA 2018 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells IMPLICATIONS: • Recharge rates of large water reservoirs associated with the wet season potentially slower than usual. • Flooding potential in the Guianas associated with many very wet spells.

Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: June to August 2018 MJJ 2018 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook USUALLY: Up to 1 extreme wet spell occur between June to August (ABC Islands: up to 1). FORECAST: JJA rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (medium confidence), except in the Guianas which are likely to be at least as wet as usual, with an increase in wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (low to medium confid. ). By contrast, no substantial shift in extreme wet spells is forecast (low confid. ). Very wet spells outlook IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is becoming a concern across the region.

Forecast 23 -36 4 -16 29 -43 33 -45 28 -44 24 -40 5 -12 17 -29 43 -61 49 -66 39 -52 26 -39 38 -55 47 -64 35 -67 41 -60 50 -66 45 -60 44 -54 56 -71 52 -67 20 -35 46 -62 28 -49 36 -52 24 -43 52 -69 51 -66 47 -61 34 -52 Climatology 1. 7 -4. 7 0. 4 -3. 4 2. 6 -6. 4 3 -5. 4 2. 6 -5. 5 2. 9 -5. 9 0. 9 -3. 4 1. 8 -4. 8 3. 9 -6. 7 2. 2 -5. 6 3. 9 -6. 3 3. 3 -5. 6 3. 4 -6. 9 2. 3 -5. 1 3 -6 3. 1 -5. 6 3. 8 -6. 1 3. 1 -5. 9 3. 4 -5. 8 3. 4 -6 2. 1 -4. 7 3 -6 2. 5 -5. 5 2. 9 -5. 6 1. 7 -4. 7 3 -5. 5 2. 9 -5. 1 4. 4 -6. 5 3. 9 -5. 8 Forecast 1. 4 -3. 7 0 -3. 2 2 -4. 8 2. 6 -5 1. 9 -5. 4 2. 2 -5. 6 0. 6 -2. 7 1. 3 -4. 1 3. 3 -6. 4 1. 6 -4. 7 3. 1 -6 3. 2 -6. 4 3. 3 -6. 4 3. 7 -8. 3 1. 9 -7. 4 2. 8 -6. 4 3 -6. 7 3. 5 -7. 4 2. 7 -6. 6 3. 1 -6. 3 3. 6 -7. 2 1. 7 -4. 5 2. 8 -5. 2 2 -4. 8 2. 5 -4. 9 1. 2 -3. 6 2. 4 -5. 3 2. 9 -5. 4 3. 9 -6. 2 2. 9 -5. 8 Climatology 0. 9 -2. 9 0 -2. 1 0. 9 -3 0. 9 -2. 6 1. 3 -3. 4 0. 9 -3. 6 0 -1. 3 0. 6 -2. 9 1. 7 -4. 5 0. 9 -2. 9 1. 7 -3. 5 1. 3 -3. 3 1. 7 -3. 7 1. 3 -3. 9 0. 9 -3. 1 0. 9 -3. 4 1. 3 -3. 2 1. 2 -3. 9 1. 3 -3. 5 0. 9 -3. 3 0. 9 -3 1. 3 -3 1. 2 -3. 1 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 4 -2. 6 0. 9 -3 1. 3 -3. 1 2 -3. 4 1. 3 -3. 4 Forecast 0. 6 -2. 6 0 -1. 5 0. 8 -2. 9 0. 7 -2. 5 0. 8 -3. 2 0. 7 -3. 5 0 -1. 5 0. 5 -2. 6 1. 1 -4. 5 0. 6 -2. 9 1 -3. 7 1. 2 -4. 3 1. 5 -3. 8 1. 7 -4. 5 0. 5 -3. 2 0. 8 -3. 6 1. 3 -3. 7 1. 5 -3. 7 1 -4. 2 1 -3. 7 1 -4. 6 0. 6 -2. 7 0. 7 -2. 7 0. 9 -3. 1 0. 7 -3. 1 0. 3 -2. 7 0. 8 -3. 4 1. 4 -3. 2 1. 1 -3. 3 Climatology 0 -0. 9 0 -0. 2 0 -1 0 -1. 3 0 -1 0 -0. 7 0 -1. 3 0 -0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0. 6 0 -1. 1 0 -1 0 -1. 9 0 -1 0 -1. 3 0 -1 Forecast 0 -0. 1 0 -0. 9 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 7 0 -1. 1 0 -0. 5 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 1 0 -1. 6 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 7 0 -0. 3 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 7 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 8 0 -0. 4 0 -0. 6 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 2 grey none are expected Climatology 26 -41 6 -16 34 -49 36 -47 33 -48 28 -41 7 -15 19 -33 49 -66 53 -68 42 -51 25 -35 37 -52 44 -60 40 -56 41 -57 51 -63 46 -60 45 -52 55 -68 50 -64 24 -38 51 -63 32 -50 40 -57 28 -45 54 -67 51 -63 53 -64 43 -50 dark blue an increase, Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Charity) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Guyana_Wales Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% No. of 7 -day very wet spells No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells wettest) (10% wettest) (1% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, June to August 2018

Dry Spells Outlook for June to August 2018 (experimental) Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

How many 7 -day, 10 -day or 15 -day dry spells do we historically get on average from June to August? 10 -day dry spells 7 -day dry spells 15 -day dry spells

7 -day dry spells from June to August 2018 What is the FORECAST for June to August 2018? Historical avg. number of 7 -day dry spells Probability of at least THREE 7 -day dry spells THREE MAX number of 7 -day MAX number dry spells

15 -day dry spells from June to August 2018 What is the FORECAST for June to August 2018? Historical avg. number of 15 -day dry spells Probability of at least ONE 15 -day dry spell MAX number of 15 -day MAX number dry spells

June to August 2018 Antigua (Green. Cas) Aruba (Beatrix) Bahamas (Freeport) Bahamas (New. Provi) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize_Belmopan Belize (C. Farm) Belize_Melinda Belize_PG-Airpor Belize_PGorda Belize_Towerhill Cayman Cuba_Camaguey Cuba_Casablanca Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana_Apaikwa Guyana_Bmont 7 Guyana_Bmont. Fron No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast 0 -5 7 -10 2 -4 1 -3 0 -3 1 -4 1 -3 1 -4 0 -1 2 -5 1 -5 2 -4 3 -8 7 -10 0 -1 3 -6 0 -2 0 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 2 -6 7 -11 1 -5 1 -3 1 -3 1 -4 1 -6 1 -4 1 -5 0 -1 2 -6 1 -5 2 -8 8 -11 0 -1 3 -8 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 4 -7 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 1 -4 4 -6 0 -0 1 -3 0 -0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 3 -7 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -0 0 -2 0 -3 0 -5 4 -8 0 -0 0 -3 0 -0 0 -1 0 -1 1 -3 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -2 1 -4 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 1 -4 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -3 2 -5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0

June to August 2018 Guyana (Charity) Guyana_De. Kindren Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana_La. Bagat Guyana_Leon. Front Guyana_Mc. Nabb. B Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana_Onderneem Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica_Manley Jamaica_Worthy-P Jamaica_bodles Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) St. Maarten (TNCM) Suriname (Zanderij) Trinidad (Piarco) Tobago (ANR Robinson) No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast 0 -3 0 -1 0 -2 1 -4 0 -2 0 -3 1 -6 0 -2 0 -1 6 -10 2 -5 6 -10 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 -5 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -5 0 -3 0 -0 6 -11 2 -6 7 -11 0 -2 1 -3 0 -1 2 -6 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 -1 2 -6 0 -2 3 -6 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 3 -8 0 -3 3 --28 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -3 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -3 0 -1 1 -3 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 1 -4 0 -1 1 -4 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0

Heat Outlook for May to July 2018 Infrequent excessive heat Dr. Simon MASON 2, Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK 1 (cmeerbeeck@cimh. edu. bb), Dr. Hannah Nissan 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2 , Wazita Scott 1 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA caricof@cimh. edu. bb

How hot will the next three to six months be? Jun-Jul-Aug 2018 Night time Sep-Oct-Nov 2018 Milder Usual Hotter Day time Milder Usual Hotter FORECAST: 1. For the first time since a number of years, the forecast does not suggest significant chances for warmer than usual conditions between June and November. 2. Night-time temperatures between June and August in particular may turn out cooler than usual. IMPLICATIONS: • Heat stress in the vulnerable population & small livestock between August and October, but likely to a more limited extent than in recent years. • Cooling need until October reduced compared to most recent years.

How many heatwave days do we historically get on average? From June to August From August to October From June to November 0 7 14 21 28 From September to November 0 0 7 14 21 28

What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from June to August 2018? FORECAST:

What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from September to November 2018? FORECAST:

What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from August to October 2018? FORECAST:

How many heatwave days from May till July 2018? USUALLY: 1) In most years, 5 to 15 heatwave days are counted in Belize and in leeward or wind sheltered areas in the Lesser Antilles between May and June, as well as in the Bahamas and Greater Antilles between June and July. 2) Wind-exposed areas in the Lesser Antilles and the coastal Guianas experience very few heatwave days in these months, if any. FORECAST: There will likely be less heatwave days than in most recent years across the region during this period. Notwithstanding, there is a 15 -20% chance for at least 14 heatwave days in Belize, eastern Cuba and Trinidad in the period May to July 2018. IMPLICATIONS: • Although there is the likelihood of a few heatwaves in many locations which may cause heat stress in human populations or livestock, the heat stress should be less accute than in most recent years.

APPENDIX

Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/mean-temperature-anomalies/

Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-monthly-rainfall/ https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/spi-monitor/

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – NMME Predicted SSTs El Niño region Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/seasanom. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season 4. png Caribbean & tropical Atlantic

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted SSTs https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_ssto? time=2018010100, 744, 2018020100&stats=ensm

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_rain

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NMME – probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/nmme/probabilistic_seasonal/nmme_precip_probabilistic. shtml#CENTRAL AMERICA

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. apcc 21. org/ser/outlook. do? lang=en

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast SON 2018 (3. 5 month lead) JJA 2018 (0. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal_charts_public_eurosip_2 tm

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_2 mtm

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. apcc 21. org/eng/service/6 mon/ps/japcc 030703. jsp

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2 m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic T 2 m forecast JJA 2018 (0. 5 month lead) SON 2018 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf 2

caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425 -1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424 -4733