Cari COF Climate Outlook JulyAugustSeptember 2018 and OctoberNovemberDecember
Cari. COF Climate Outlook July-August-September 2018 and October-November-December 2018 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands
Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC
RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML): JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May 3. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over --- data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , --- (Initialisation). 4. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over --5. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). 6. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June ( initialisation). 7. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 230 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 404 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 178 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 404 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 Experiment 1 Index : caricof@ci!Fair!0. 070 m. bb
CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 274 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 426 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 251 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 426 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic OND rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over --(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , --- (initialisation). ( Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over --Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, June ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 152 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 394 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 130 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 394 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cih. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 471 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 186 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 419 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 152 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 419 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 5) CFSv 2 model 6) Météo. France Arpège model. 7) JMA model 8) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) The SST anomalies have increased to 0°C in the Niño 3. 4 region of the Pacific. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) have recently cooled from around average (anomalies of -0. 5°C to +0. 5°C) to below average (-0. 5°C to -2°C) in the Caribbean Sea and further east, while remaining above average (+0. 5 to +1°C) further north. 2) A majority of models forecast continued warming of the Niño 3. 4 region in JAS and OND, with ~55% suggesting neutral ENSO conditions for JAS, while 60 -65% suggest El Niño conditions by OND. Models further indicate sustained positive anomalies to the north of the region by OND. They also suggest below-average temperatures to dominate the TNA during JAS, while the negative anomalies are forecast to lessen by OND. 3) While neutral, ENSO will exert minimal influence on Caribbean rainfall and temperature. Rather, with below-average SSTs in and eastward of the region, below-average humidity and atmospheric instability is expected in JAS, tilting the odds towards cooler air temperatures (especially at night) and towards drier conditions across the Caribbean. 4) If El Niño manifests by OND, an enhanced sub-tropical jet would tend to increase precipitation in the north, while increased wind shear further south would reduce precipitation there. El Niño would increase wind shear further south, and reduce storminess and precipitation there, as well as decrease the potential for strong late-season hurricane activity.
Probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic OND rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
2 M TEMPERATURE: MEAN MAXIMUM MINIMUM caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JAS forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over --(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , --- initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ---. --Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic OND forecast for 2 m Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over --(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , --- initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ---. --Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 216 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 182 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 46 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 242 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 226 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 237 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 244 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic JAS Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 128 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 058 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 165 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 259 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 208 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic OND Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 203 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 179 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 209 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 153 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 204 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 190 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic JAS Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MAXIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 185 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 102 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 220 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 239 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 205 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic OND Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 162 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 211 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 171 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic JJA 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 210 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 189 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic JAS Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 056 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 032 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 103 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 116 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 197 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 131 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2018 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Probabilistic OND Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb
DROUGHT caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic AMJJAS CCA experiments: 1. 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic AMJJAS Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 232 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 414 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 182 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 414 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON 2017 -’ 18 CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb
CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 471 Values : 20 Index : 0. 240 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 377 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of September 2018 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Assistant Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands
Shorter term Drought Outlook (April to September 2018) Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (June 2018): 2018 As we transition from the dry season into the wet season, we are currently not seeing any shorter term drought concern developing throughout the region. Exceptions are: A drought watch is issued for Barbados, northwestern Belize, Grenada, northern Leewards. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Long term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30 th, 2018)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through May 2018, 2018 with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-1. 3 (very dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought watch is in effect for Cayman Is. and northern Leewards. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of May 2018): (more information here) – In most places, at least the normal amount of rainfall was recorded during the dry season partly due to a weak La Niña, with the notable exception of Anguilla. – As a result, short term drought conditions are seen in Anguilla. • Shorter term drought situation (by the end of September 2018): – Shorter term drought might possibly develop in Barbados, north-western Belize, Grenada, northern Leewards. • Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2018): – Long term drought might possibly develop in Cayman Isl. and the northern Leewards. * We advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates. * caricof@cimh. edu. bb CONTINUE TO MONITOR & CONSERVE WATER !!
ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts
Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 33. 3333 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 33. 3334 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 83. 3333 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency ≥ 83. 3334 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95
Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – Wet days and Wet spells Outlooks July to September 2018 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb
Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2018 JAS 2018 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Out of 92 days in Jul-Aug-Sep, there about 35 to 59 wet days in relatively flat areas of Belize and the islands, but 50 to 65 in mountainous areas and in coastal Guianas (ABC Islands: 5 -15). FORECAST: JAS rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days across the region except for a small increase in Suriname (medium confidence). IMPLICATIONS: • Surface wetness increasing slower than usual. • Less reliable rains for agriculture than usual. • Increasing frequency of rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities.
Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2018 JAS 2018 frequency of 7 -day wet spells USUALLY: 3 to 6 wet spells (ABC Islands: up to 3) occur from July to September, with 1 to 3 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 2). Wet days outlook FORECAST: JAS rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (medium confidence), except for the inner region of Guyana an increase in wet spells (low to medium confid. ). JAS 2018 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells IMPLICATIONS: • Recharge rates of large water reservoirs associated with the wet season potentially slower than usual. • Flooding potential in the inner region of Guyana associated with wet spells.
Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2018 JAS 2018 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook USUALLY: Up to 1 extreme wet spell occur between July to September (ABC Islands: up to 1). FORECAST: : JAS rainfall may be drier than usual with fewer wet days, wet spells and very wet spells (medium confidence), except for the inner region of Guyana an increase in wet spells (low to medium confid. ). By contrast, no substantial shift in extreme wet spells is forecast (low confid. ). Very wet spells outlook IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is becoming a concern across the region.
Climatology Forecast 29 -41 27 -39 2. 6 -4. 9 2. 2 -4. 6 0. 9 -3 0. 8 -3 0 -1. 3 6 -17 4 -15 1. 2 -3. 9 0. 6 -3. 8 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 2 -2. 1 0 -0. 9 0 -0 37 -48 32 -46 3. 4 -6. 4 3 -6 1. 4 -3. 2 1. 3 -3. 4 0 -1. 2 39 -49 36 -47 3. 9 -6. 2 3. 5 -6. 1 1. 6 -3. 9 1. 2 -3. 7 0 -1. 5 37 -49 31 -47 2. 8 -5. 6 2. 8 -5. 9 1. 3 -3. 4 1. 3 -3. 7 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 4 31 -44 27 -45 3. 4 -6. 2 3. 1 -6. 5 1. 2 -3. 4 1. 1 -3. 7 0 -1 0 -0. 9 10 -18 8 -16 1. 4 -3. 9 1 -3. 7 0. 4 -1. 7 0. 1 -1. 6 0 -1 0 -0. 2 24 -34 21 -32 3 -5. 1 2. 6 -5. 2 1. 7 -3. 3 1. 3 -3. 3 0 -1. 3 52 -64 46 -60 3. 7 -7. 2 3. 4 -7. 3 1. 8 -5. 4 1. 4 -5. 2 0 -2. 5 0 -2. 3 56 -69 53 -68 2. 9 -6. 6 2. 2 -6 0. 9 -3. 2 0. 8 -3. 4 0 -1. 1 39 -48 36 -51 3. 9 -6. 4 3. 1 -6. 2 1. 7 -3. 6 1. 2 -3. 9 0 -2 0 -1. 7 17 -26 15 -26 1. 7 -4. 1 1. 3 -4. 3 0. 4 -2. 4 0. 4 -2. 2 0 -0. 1 26 -41 22 -40 2. 1 -4. 8 1. 9 -4. 6 0. 9 -3 0. 7 -2. 6 0 -1 0 -0. 9 32 -46 29 -44 2. 1 -5. 1 1. 7 -5. 1 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 8 -2. 5 0 -1 0 -0. 9 27 -42 22 -40 1. 7 -4. 3 1. 3 -4 0. 4 -2. 7 0. 3 -2. 4 0 -1 0 -0. 8 35 -51 31 -51 1. 7 -4. 3 1. 4 -4 0. 4 -2. 5 0. 5 -2. 2 0 -1 0 -0. 4 34 -51 32 -58 1. 8 -5. 4 1. 7 -6. 2 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 7 -3 0 -1. 4 31 -44 29 -43 1. 8 -4. 7 1. 6 -4. 4 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 5 -2. 4 0 -1 0 -0. 8 32 -38 28 -38 2. 1 -3. 9 1. 5 -3. 8 0. 7 -2. 6 0. 6 -2. 4 0 -1. 3 45 -58 42 -58 2. 1 -4. 7 1. 9 -4. 5 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 7 -2. 2 0 -1 0 -0. 4 39 -52 37 -51 2. 1 -4. 3 2 -4. 7 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 6 -2. 5 0 -0. 8 0 -0. 5 28 -42 25 -39 2. 6 -5. 6 2. 2 -5. 2 0. 9 -3 0. 8 -3 0 -2 0 -1. 7 53 -64 48 -60 3. 9 -7 3. 3 -6. 5 1. 7 -3. 7 1. 2 -3. 8 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 6 36 -50 32 -50 2. 7 -5. 4 2. 4 -5. 6 0. 9 -3. 2 0. 8 -3. 2 0 -1. 3 44 -59 39 -56 3. 4 -5. 6 2. 9 -5. 7 1. 7 -3. 4 1. 1 -3. 6 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 6 33 -49 29 -49 2. 2 -5. 7 1. 9 -5. 1 0. 9 -3 0. 6 -2. 8 0 -1 56 -65 53 -67 3. 4 -5. 5 3. 2 -5. 7 1. 3 -3. 3 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 4 36 -51 35 -53 1. 9 -3. 4 1. 7 -3. 5 0. 7 -1. 7 0. 6 -1. 9 0 -1. 4 47 -59 47 -58 4 -6. 4 3. 5 -6. 3 1. 5 -3. 4 1. 4 -3. 6 0 -1. 3 36 -53 34 -56 3. 4 -5. 6 3 -5. 7 1. 7 -3. 4 1. 4 -3. 2 0 -1. 2 grey none are expected No. of 7 -day very wet spells No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells (10% wettest) (1% wettest) dark blue an increase, Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Guyana_Wales Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, July to September 2018
Dry Spells Outlook for July to September 2018 (experimental) Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Wazita B. Scott – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands
How many 7 -day, 10 -day or 15 -day dry spells do we historically get on average from July to September? 10 -day dry spells 7 -day dry spells 15 -day dry spells
7 -day dry spells from July to September 2018 What is the FORECAST for July to September 2018? Historical avg. number of 7 -day dry spells Probability of at least THREE 7 -day dry spells MAX number of 7 -day dry spells
15 -day dry spells from July to September 2018 What is the FORECAST for July to September 2018? Historical avg. number of 15 -day dry spells Probability of at least ONE 15 -day dry spell MAX number of 15 -day dry spells
July to September 2018 Antigua (Green. Cas) Aruba (Beatrix) Bahamas (Freeport) Bahamas (New. Provi) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize_Belmopan Belize (C. Farm) Belize_Melinda Belize_PG-Airpor Belize_PGorda Belize_Towerhill Cayman Cuba_Camaguey Cuba_Casablanca Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana_Apaikwa Guyana_Bmont 7 Guyana_Bmont. Fron No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast 1 -3 6 -10 1 -3 1 -3 0 -2 1 -3 1 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 -1 1 -4 1 -4 3 -7 7 -10 0 -1 2 -5 0 -3 3 -6 1 -4 2 -5 1 -4 6 -11 1 -3 0 -3 0 -3 1 -4 0 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1 -4 1 -5 3 -8 7 -10 0 -1 3 -6 0 -3 2 -6 1 -4 2 -6 2 -5 0 -2 3 -7 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 1 -4 3 -6 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 1 -3 1 -2 0 -2 3 -10 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 1 -5 3 -8 0 -0 0 -3 0 -1 0 -4 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 1 -4 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -3 1 -5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1
July to September 2018 cont’d No. of 7 -dy dry spells No. of 10 -dy dry spells No. of 15 -dy dry spells Historically Forecast Guyana (Charity) Guyana_De. Kindren Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana_La. Bagat Guyana_Leon. Front Guyana_Mc. Nabb. B Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana_Onderneem Guyana (Skeldon) 2 -5 1 -3 2 -5 0 -3 1 -5 2 -6 1 -4 3 -4 2 -7 2 -5 1 -4 2 -6 0 -3 1 -4 2 -6 1 -4 2 -5 2 -7 2 -5 0 -2 1 -3 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 1 -2 0 -5 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 -1 0 -3 0 -5 0 -3 1 -3 0 -5 0 -2 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica_Manley Jamaica_Worthy-P Jamaica_bodles Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) St. Maarten (TNCM) Suriname (Zanderij) Trinidad (Piarco) Tobago (ANR Robinson) 0 -2 6 -9 1 -4 6 -9 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 5 -11 1 -4 5 -9 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 -4 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 2 -5 0 -2 2 -5 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 2 -6 0 -3 2 -6 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -0 1 -2 0 -0 0 -4 0 -0 0 -3 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0
Heat Outlook for July to December 2018 Excessive heat at times Dr. Simon MASON 2, Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK 1 (cmeerbeeck@cimh. edu. bb), Dr. Hannah Nissan 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2 , Wazita Scott 1 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA caricof@cimh. edu. bb
How hot will the next three to six months be? Jun-Jul-Aug 2018 Night time Day time USUALLY: • The hotter part of the year starts in April in Belize and Trinidad, in May in the other Islands, in August in the Guianas. It ends in October in Belize and the islands, in November in the Guianas. • In most years, August or September are the hottest months in the islands. FORECAST: Sep-Oct-Nov 2018 Milder Usual Hotter 1. For the first time since a number of years, the forecast suggests temperatures may not be warmer than usual between July and December. 2. That said, some areas may experience slightly warmer than usual temperatures, especially the ABC Islands, Belize and the Greater Antilles from Sep. to Dec.
How many heatwave days do we historically get on average? average From July to September 0 7 14 21 28 USUALLY: • In most years, at least 7 heatwave days are counted from July to September throughout most areas in the Caribbean, with the exception of Belize, Trinidad, and in cool highland areas. • September is the month in which all stations can record heatwaves, i. e. the peak of the hotter season.
What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from July to September 2018? FORECAST: • 50% chance or higher that there will be at least 7 heatwave days from July to September 2018 in the Greater Antilles and some locations in the Windward Islands. • A few of these stations could record 14 heatwave days or more.
How will heat affect the Caribbean from July till September 2018? FORECAST: 1. For the first time since a number of years, the forecast does not suggest significant chances for warmer than usual summer conditions between July and December. 2. That said, some areas may experience slightly warmer than usual temperatures, especially the ABC Islands, Belize and the Greater Antilles from Sep. to Dec. 3. The forecast suggests a 50% chance or higher that there will be at least 7 heatwave days from July to September 2018 in the Greater Antilles and some locations in the Windward Islands. A few of these stations could record 14 heatwave days or more. IMPLICATIONS: • Heat stress in the vulnerable population & small livestock until October (or November in the Guianas), but unlikely to the same extent as in recent years. • By consequence, cooling needs until October are reduced compared to recent years. • Nevertheless, the occurrence of a few heatwaves in many locations is likely to temporarily increase heat stress in human populations or livestock.
APPENDIX
Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/mean-temperature-anomalies/
Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-monthly-rainfall/ https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/spi-monitor/
US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml
NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml
Explanatory variables – NMME Predicted SSTs El Niño region Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/seasanom. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season 4. png Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted SSTs https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_ssto? time=2018010100, 744, 2018020100&stats=ensm
US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif
Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_rain
UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob
NMME – probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/nmme/probabilistic_seasonal/nmme_precip_probabilistic. shtml#CENTRAL AMERICA
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier
Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php
Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast – need to update JAS 2018 (0. 5 month lead) OND 2018 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf 2
IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_2 mtm
UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2 m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier
Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php
Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic T 2 m forecast JAS 2018 (0. 5 month lead) OND 2018 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf 2
caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425 -1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424 -4733
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