Cari COF Climate Outlook JulyAugustSeptember 2017 and OctoberNovemberDecember

Cari. COF Climate Outlook July-August-September 2017 and October-November-December 2017 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC

RAINFALL caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May(data May source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May 3. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June initialisation). 4. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS 5. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JAS data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). 6. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). 7. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 250 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 424 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 166 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 424 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 287 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 424 Stations : 10 Fair CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 265 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 424 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 1 caricof@ci!Fair!0. 070 m. bb

CPT probabilistic JASRainfall forecast JAS Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 468 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : 424 Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 270 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 426 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 241 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 426 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

ONDRAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May(data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). May Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June(initialisation). June( Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, June ( initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 408 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 130 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 408 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 159 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 408 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 150 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 408 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 468 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : 426 Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 184 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 421 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 160 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 421 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October –November-December 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6) CFSv 2 model 7) Météo. France Arpège model. 8) JMA model 9) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) SSTs in the Niño region of the Pacific have recently been warming up to borderline El Niño conditions (Niño 3. 4 SST anomalies around +0. 5°C). Most models, suggest temperature anomalies to either remain slightly positive by JAS, favouring neutral (60% confidence) over weak El Niño. By OND, the models have the same confidence in both scenarios (40 -45% confidence). Compared to previous updates, this means a much decreased chance for El Niño. 2) Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs east of the Caribbean have warmed significantly, especially near the west African coast, to 0. 5 -1°C above average. By comparison, SSTs are now 0 -0. 5°C above avg. in the Caribbean Sea as well as in the TNA north of the islands. Some models suggest a gradual return to values close to average in the eastern TNA, while anomalies are predicted to remain largely unchanged by OND elsewhere. 3) With ENSO conditions predicted to be warm neutral to borderline El Niño, impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected to be limited. However, if El Niño were to manifest, chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean and Guianas would increase. 4) Warm SSTs east of the Caribbean may lead to above-average humidity and atmospheric instability in the wet season, which tilts the odds towards a wetter wet season, and more intense hurricane season. 5) With SSTs remaining above average throughout much of the region, air temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average, but wetter than usual conditions during the wet season will push down max temps.

Probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic OND rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Jun initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jun initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 281 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Fair ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 182 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 251 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Fair CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 230 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 310 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 44 Stations : 10 Good NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 287 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 44 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

OND TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Jun initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jun initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 133 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 017 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 150 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 129 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 5 X modes : 3 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 204 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 45 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 68 Values : 20 Index : 0. 192 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 45 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July – August- September 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October –November - December 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic OND 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 249 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 168 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 8 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 218 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 179 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 223 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 267 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

OND MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 184 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 089 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 210 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 142 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 229 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 190 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic OND 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 186 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 096 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 202 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 162 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 241 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 205 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

OND MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over OND (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OND (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , June initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over OND caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 087 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : -0. 071 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Negative Skill ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 098 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 118 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic OND 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 143 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 0. 138 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) October-November-December 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic OND 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK AMJJAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJJAS CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over May Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JJAS (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJJAS Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 248 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 428 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 216 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 428 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK DJFMAMJJASON 2016 -17 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over May (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 278 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 394 Stations : 10 Fair ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of September 2017 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Shorter term Drought Outlook (April to September 2017) Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (June 2017): 2017 As we transition from the dry into the wet season, we continue to see no drought concern developing throughout the region, except: A drought warning is issued for Haïti. A drought watch is issued for Tobago. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30 th, 2017)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through May 2017, 2017 with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-1. 3 (very dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought watch is in effect for Bahamas. Previous Outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of May 2017): (more information here) – After an exceptionally wet month of April, a substantial improvement in short and mid term drought conditions were seen in Grand Cayman. Nevertheless, it remains in long term drought. – Some other areas in the Caribbean are also facing short term drought concerns, incl. N Bahamas, St. Barth’s, as well as potentially Belize and Trinidad & Tobago, which are also in long term drought. • Shorter term drought situation (by the end of September 2017): – We expect a shorter term drought situation to possibly manifest in Haïti and to possibly develop in Tobago. • Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2017): – Long term drought is possible in Bahamas. – Though the potential long term drought concerns are region-wide at its lowest since at least 2014, we advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates. – One definite reason to keep monitoring the situation is the possibility of an El Niño by the end of the year. If an El Niño manifests, that may once again raise drought concerns when we will go into the next dry season by the end of 2017. caricof@cimh. edu. bb CONTINUE TO MONITOR & CONSERVE WATER !!

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 33. 3333 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 33. 3334 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 83. 3333 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency ≥ 83. 3334 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks July to September 2017 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1 , Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2017 JAS 2017 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Out of 92 days in Jul-Aug-Sep, there about 35 to 50 wet days (50 to 65 in mountainous areas; ABC Islands: 5 -15). FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence). caricof@cimh. edu. bb IMPLICATION: • Frequent rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities. • Surface wetness makes environmental conditions more conducive to mosquito breeding and moisture related pests.

Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2017 JAS 2017 frequency of 7 -day wet spells Wet days outlook JAS 2017 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells caricof@cimh. edu. bb USUALLY: Between 2 and 6 wet spells (ABC Islands: 1 to 4) occur from July to September, with 1 to 3 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 2). FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet and very wet spells (low confid. ). IMPLICATION: • Recharge of large water reservoirs associated with wet season.

Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: July to September 2017 JAS 2017 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook Very wet spells outlook USUALLY: Up to 1 or 2 extreme wet spell occur between July to September (ABC Islands: up to 1). FORECAST: JAS is likely to be wetter than usual or usual in The Bahamas, Greater Antilles and W Guianas, whereas Barbados, Belize, Trinidad & Tobago and Windwards, may be drier than usual. We forecast slightly less wet days in the latter locations and coastal Guianas, but slightly more in most other places (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet, very wet and extremely wet spells (low confid. ). IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is a concern throughout the region. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells (1% wettest) Climatology Forecast 29 -42 6 -17 37 -49 39 -49 36 -49 31 -46 10 -18 2. 6 -5. 1 1. 3 -3. 9 3. 4 -6. 4 3. 9 -6. 4 2. 7 -5. 6 3. 4 -6. 4 1. 3 -3. 9 0. 9 -3 0. 4 -2. 1 1. 3 -3. 4 1. 7 -3. 9 1. 3 -3. 4 0. 4 -1. 7 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1. 3 0 -0. 4 0 -1. 3 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 1 0 -0. 4 31 -46 3 -15 34 -49 37 -50 30 -47 29 -50 12 -23 23 -38 52 -65 56 -69 39 -48 17 -26 26 -42 33 -46 28 -42 35 -51 34 -51 31 -44 31 -38 45 -58 38 -52 28 -42 52 -64 36 -50 44 -59 32 -49 56 -65 36 -51 50 -66 57 -74 35 -51 14 -25 21 -39 29 -44 22 -42 29 -50 30 -55 29 -43 28 -38 41 -57 36 -51 29 -46 49 -63 37 -58 40 -57 32 -54 48 -62 34 -53 2. 7 -5. 6 1 -4. 6 3. 6 -7 3. 9 -6. 8 2. 9 -6 3. 5 -7. 2 1. 3 -4. 4 2. 9 -5. 7 3. 7 -7. 4 3 -6. 9 3. 9 -6. 4 1. 7 -3. 9 2. 1 -4. 7 2. 1 -5. 1 1. 7 -4. 3 1. 8 -5. 4 1. 7 -5. 1 2. 1 -3. 9 2. 1 -4. 7 2. 1 -4. 3 2. 6 -5. 6 3. 9 -7. 3 3 -5. 6 3. 4 -5. 6 2. 1 -5. 6 3. 4 -5. 6 1. 7 -3. 4 3. 8 -8. 1 2. 8 -7. 2 3. 3 -6. 5 1. 4 -4. 8 2. 4 -5. 5 2. 1 -5. 8 1. 8 -5. 1 1. 7 -4. 7 1. 7 -6. 1 2 -5. 3 1. 8 -4. 4 2. 3 -5. 3 2. 1 -5 2. 7 -6. 1 3. 7 -7. 1 2. 7 -6. 3 3. 4 -6. 6 2. 3 -5. 8 3. 3 -5. 9 1. 9 -3. 9 1 -3. 6 0. 4 -2. 4 1. 6 -3. 8 1. 3 -3. 9 1. 3 -3. 6 1. 3 -4 0. 3 -1. 8 1. 4 -3. 6 1. 8 -5. 5 0. 9 -3. 4 1. 7 -3. 8 0. 4 -2. 6 0. 9 -3 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 4 -2. 7 0. 4 -2. 6 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 9 -3 1. 7 -3. 9 0. 9 -3. 4 1. 7 -3. 4 0. 9 -3 1. 3 -3. 4 0. 9 -1. 7 1. 5 -5. 4 0. 9 -4 1. 3 -4. 2 0. 6 -2. 7 0. 9 -2. 9 0. 9 -3 0. 6 -2. 5 0. 7 -3. 1 0. 8 -2. 9 0. 7 -2. 8 0. 9 -2. 7 0. 7 -2. 7 1. 1 -3. 6 1. 4 -4. 1 1 -3. 7 1. 3 -4 0. 8 -3. 2 1. 3 -3. 6 0. 6 -2 0 -1. 3 0 -2. 5 0 -1 0 -2 0 -0. 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1. 1 0 -2. 3 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 6 0 -0. 8 0 -0. 9 0 -0. 8 0 -0. 3 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 8 0 -1. 3 0 -0. 4 0 -0. 5 0 -1. 6 0 -1. 3 0 -1. 6 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 2 grey none are expected No. of 7 -day very wet spells (10% wettest) dark blue an increase, Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, July to September 2017

APPENDIX caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/mean-temperature-anomalies/

Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-monthly-rainfall/ https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/spi-monitor/

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iridl. ldeo. columbia. edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/SST. html? L=2. 5

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_charts_public_ecmwf_sst

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb

caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_charts_public_ecmwf_precipitation

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/nmme/probabilistic_seasonal/nmme_precip_probabilistic. shtml#CENTRAL AMERICA

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. apcc 21. org/ser/outlook. do? lang=en

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast JAS 2017 (0. 5 month lead) caricof@cimh. edu. bb OND 2017 (3. 5 month lead)

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal_charts_public_eurosip_2 tm

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_charts_public_ecmwf_2 tm

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob