Cari COF Climate Outlook JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2017 and AprilMayJune

Cari. COF Climate Outlook January-February-March 2017 and April-May-June 2017 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC

RAINFALL caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November(data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). November 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November 3. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). 4. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM 5. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JFM(data source: JFM ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). 6. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM(data JFM source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). 7. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 092 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 110 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 091 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 426 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 098 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Very Limited! Experiment 1 !Very Limited! caricof@cim. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 102 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 1 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 1 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 126 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 167 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 429 Stations : 10 NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 !Limited! caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Novemberdata source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). November Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, December (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 096 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !very Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 118 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 098 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 101 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 426 Stations : 10 !Limited! Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 426 Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 4 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 427 Stations : 10 NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 104 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 427 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Index : 0. 031 !!Very Limited!! Index : 0. 127 !Limited! caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February - March 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6) CFSv 2 model 7) Météo. France Arpège model. 8) JMA model 9) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) SSTs in the Niño region of the Pacific are currently slightly below average (Niño 3. 4 SST anomalies -0. 5°C). A majority of models suggests temperature anomalies to remain slightly negative, however, returning from borderline La Niña to coldneutral ENSO conditions. La Niña chances are decreasing from 20 -40% confidence for JFM 2017, down to less than 20% by AMJ. By contrast, return to ENSO neutral conditions is more likely 55 -75% confidence by JFM and 60 -75% by AMJ). Tropical North Atlantic SSTs tend to cool anomalously towards the end of a La Niña, and are currently slightly above average throughout the Caribbean Islands. Small positive SST anomalies are expected to persist throughout the region and portions of the Tropical North Atlantic during JFM, but mostly fade by AMJ. 2) La Niñas tend to shift rainfall chances for JFM to above-normal in the southern-most islands of the Caribbean, and belownormal in the Bahamas and Cuba. However, with the forecast ENSO conditions suggesting a weak La Niña at most, their effect on rainfall may not be dominant. 3) Warm SSTs within the Caribbean may lead to above-average humidity for JFM. Warm tropical Atlantic SST may also enhance air humidity levels. 4) Global models show limited signal as to the expected rainfall during AMJ, with probabilities showing climatology (equal chances for above or below) or models disagreeing between each other.

Probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM MEAN TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Mean Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Mean Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 214 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 280 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Fair ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 241 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 221 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Mean Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 227 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 47 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 4 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 237 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 217 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MEAN TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Mean Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Mean Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 228 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 224 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 201 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Mean Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 183 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 247 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 67 Values : 20 Index : 0. 243 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January - February – March 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 234 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 256 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 212 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 233 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 263 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 226 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 169 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 143 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 127 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 100 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 103 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 151 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 165 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 191 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 247 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 229 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 131 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 141 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , December initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 180 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 214 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 203 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 172 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 133 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 161 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 51 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January - February – March 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2017 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK ONDJFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic ONDJFM CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over November. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over DJFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic ONDJFM Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 151 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 417 Stations : 10 Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 150 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 417 Stations : 10 Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 294 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 428 Stations : 10 Fair ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK JJASONDJFMAM 2016 -17 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over November (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 467 Values : 20 Index : 0. 106 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 394 Stations : 10 !Limited ! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of February 2017 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Drought Outlook October 2016 to March 2017 Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (December 2016): 2016 We continue to see no drought concern developing throughout the region. A drought warning is issued for Cayman. A drought watch is issued for most other portions of Cuba, Grenada, inland French Guiana, the Leewards (except Antigua) and Tobago. caricof@cimh. edu. bb Previous Outlook

Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Hydrological year (May 30 th, 2017)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through November 2016, 2016 with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤ 0. 8 (very dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought emergency is in effect for Cayman Islands • A drought warning is in effect for central Cuba, Grenada, SE Puerto Rico and Tobago. • A drought watch is in effect for N Belize, E Cuba, French Guiana, Jamaica, NW Puerto Rico and Trinidad. caricof@cimh. edu. bb Previous Outlook

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of November 2016): (more information here) – Grand Cayman is likely to experience its driest year on record with an observed wet season rainfall sum of only 50% of average. As a result, the island is in both short- and long-term drought. S Belize, central Cuba, N Leewards and Tobago are in long-term drought. – September, October and November rainfall was sufficient to continue alleviating adverse drought conditions from earlier in 2016 in most other areas • Shorter-term drought situation (until March 2017): – We expect a shorter-term drought situation to continue in Cayman and to possibly develop in Cuba, Grenada, French Guiana, the Leewards (except Antigua), and to possibly remain in Tobago. • Longer-term drought situation (until May 2017): – Longer-term drought is very likely to remain in Cayman (~90% chance) and potentially become more impactful as the dry (tourism) season progresses. It is evolving in central Cuba, Grenada, SE Puerto Rico and Tobago, and is possible in N Belize, French Guiana, NW Puerto Rico and Trinidad. – Though dry season impacts may be quite similar to the usual, longer-term drought will not likely be a major concern by the end of the dry season in other areas. – A borderline La Niña appeared since September and expected to fade by February. La Niña tends to suppress chances of drought during the dry season. The exception is the Bahamas and Cuba, where drought chances tend to increase towards March with La Niña. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER USAGE!! caricof@cimh. edu. bb

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 35 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 53 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 85 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency > 85 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks January to March 2017 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1 , Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: January to March 2017 JFM 2017 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Across the region during November-December-January, about 20 to 40 days out of a total of 90 days are wet days. FORECAST: DJF rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in much of the region, By contrast, below- to normal is forecast for Bahamas, Belize and Cuba. We forecast little change from the usual amount of wet days (very low confidence). caricof@cimh. edu. bb IMPLICATION: • Disruptions of outdoor activities by rainfall tend to be few as compared to other times of the year. • Surface dryness will increase faster in the extreme north and west of the region than elsewhere.

Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: December 2016 to February 2017 JFM 2017 frequency of 7 -day wet spells Wet days outlook DJF 2017 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells caricof@cimh. edu. bb USUALLY: Up to 3 wet spells (ABC Islands and coastal Guianas: up to 4) occur from January to March, with up to 1 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 2; coastal Guianas: up to 3). FORECAST: DJF rainfall is likely to be aboveto normal in much of the region, By contrast, below- to normal is forecast for Bahamas, Belize and Cuba. We forecast little change from the usual amount of wet days, wet spells or very wet spells (very low confidence). IMPLICATION: • Little recharge of large water reservoirs expected at this time of year. • Depletion of large reservoirs during dry season likely slower than usual.

Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: December 2016 to February 2017 JFM 2017 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook Very wet spells outlook caricof@cimh. edu. bb USUALLY: Virtually no extreme wet spells occur between January and March, except in coastal Guianas (up to 1) which are in their short wet season. FORECAST: DJF rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in much of the region, By contrast, below- to normal is forecast for Bahamas, Belize and Cuba. We forecast little change from the usual amount of wet days, wet spells or very wet spells (very low confidence). Apart from the coastal Guianas, we forecast no extreme wet spells (high confid. ). IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential not a major concern until the end of March, with the possible exception of the Guianas.

caricof@cimh. edu. bb Climatology Forecast 0. 8 -2. 3 0. 7 -2. 6 1. 1 -4. 3 1. 3 -4. 5 0. 2 -1. 7 0. 3 -2. 1 0. 5 -2. 1 0. 6 -2. 3 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 7 -2. 5 0 -1. 6 1. 7 -3. 4 1. 5 -3. 8 0 -3 0. 1 -2. 8 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 6 -2. 2 0 -2. 4 0. 2 -2. 5 0. 8 -4. 4 1 -4. 5 0. 2 -4. 7 0. 7 -4. 7 0. 4 -4. 2 0. 7 -4. 4 0. 4 -4. 2 0. 7 -4. 5 0. 3 -4. 2 0. 6 -4. 4 0. 4 -3. 9 0. 9 -4. 1 0. 9 -4. 2 1 -4. 1 0. 4 -3. 9 0. 9 -4. 3 0. 4 -3 0. 2 -2. 9 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 5 -2. 6 0. 9 -2. 6 0. 8 -2. 9 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 8 -2. 2 1. 3 -3. 7 0. 9 -3. 8 0. 4 -2. 5 0. 5 -2. 5 1. 4 -4. 3 1. 5 -4. 4 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 3 Climatology Forecast 0 -0. 9 0 -1 0 -2 0. 1 -2 0 -0. 9 0 -0. 8 0. 4 -1. 3 0. 1 -1. 2 0 -0. 7 0 -0. 9 0. 4 -1. 7 0. 4 -1. 8 0 -1. 1 0 -1. 3 0 -1. 1 0. 4 -2. 9 0. 4 -2. 6 0 -2. 9 0. 3 -2. 6 0 -2. 9 0. 2 -2. 4 0. 4 -3. 1 0. 3 -3. 1 0 -2. 6 0. 1 -2. 9 0 -3 0. 2 -2. 6 0. 3 -2. 6 0. 4 -2. 2 0 -2. 6 0. 2 -2. 6 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 9 0 -1. 1 0 -0. 9 0. 2 -1. 4 0. 1 -1. 5 0 -1. 2 0. 4 -2. 6 0. 8 -2. 5 0 -0. 4 0 -0. 7 No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells (1% wettest) Climatology Forecast 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0. 2 0 -0. 1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0. 6 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 9 0 -1. 3 0 -1. 9 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 5 0 -1 0 -0. 7 0 -0. 3 0 -1. 6 0 -0 0 -0. 9 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0. 4 0 -0 0 -0. 9 0 -0 grey none are expected Climatology Forecast 16 -34 17 -37 7 -25 7 -28 17 -38 19 -41 21 -33 18 -39 14 -25 14 -30 8 -19 10 -19 9 -22 29 -46 26 -54 43 -59 38 -63 15 -31 15 -34 12 -27 13 -30 19 -44 20 -49 20 -51 23 -55 22 -45 25 -46 23 -49 26 -52 21 -46 25 -52 20 -46 23 -50 23 -52 28 -57 14 -25 12 -26 39 -54 32 -64 26 -41 24 -43 24 -42 25 -43 28 -43 26 -46 39 -54 35 -61 32 -53 35 -56 17 -34 16 -37 No. of 7 -day very wet spells (10% wettest) dark blue an increase, Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, January to March 2017

APPENDIX caricof@cimh. edu. bb

US Climate Prediction Centre – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige 1. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige 3. shtml

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iridl. ldeo. columbia. edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/SST. html? L=2. 5

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iridl. ldeo. columbia. edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/SST. html? L=5. 5

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal_charts_public_eurosip_precipitation

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-rangeforecast? time=2016100100, 5088, 2016043000&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20 summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/cfsv 2/camerica_prec_prob 2. shtml

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. apcc 21. org/ser/outlook. do? lang=en

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast JFM 2016 -’ 17 (0. 5 month lead) caricof@cimh. edu. bb AMJ 2017 (3. 5 month lead)

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal_charts_public_eurosip_2 tm

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2 m-temperature-public-charts-long-rangeforecast? time=2015100100, 3624, 2016022900&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20 summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob