Cari COF Climate Outlook JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2016 and AprilMayJune

Cari. COF Climate Outlook January-February-March 2016 and April-May-June 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC 2

RAINFALL caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov(data Nov source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM(data JFM source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM. Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 094 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 432 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 109 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 432 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 132 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 431 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 120 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 431 Stations : 10 !Limited! Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 104 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 1 Used : 432 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 1 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 126 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 431 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 167 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 431 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 095 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 117 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 111 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 104 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes 6: Used : 429 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic MAM Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 104 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 1 Used : 432 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 1 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 127 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 106 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 429 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May - June 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6) CFSv 2 model 7) Météo. France Arpège model. 8) JMA model 9) Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) El Niño has manifested and is now strong and still intensifying (latest SST anom. 2. 3°C). Most models suggest a strong El Niño lasting into the first quarter of 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of at least 99% for JFM and >95% for AMJ for remaining in El Niño. Similarly, SSTs have been and are still above average north and east of the Caribbean Islands. Temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic eastwards are expected to warm further into AMJ (with the possible exception of areas just north of the S American continent, where El Niño is often associated with stronger trade winds and, hence, stronger upwelling). 2) Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to average to above-average air moisture in the islands for JFM. This pattern is expected to intensify across the Antilles into AMJ and extenuate in the Bahamas. However, over the Antilles and increasingly towards the south and east, a pattern of drier air could be observed in JFM and AMJ, as a result of El Niño. A strong El Niño is expected to sustain increased vertical wind shear and subsidence over the Caribbean, which weakens deep convection (except the NW, especially in MAM, where the opposite is expected). 3) Global models are suggesting a shift to above-normal rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas in JFM and in islands north of 20°N into AMJ. By contrast, a shift to below-normal rainfall is expected further south- and east-ward, with a southeastward movement of the area with high chances for below-normal rainfall. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

2 M MEAN TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NOv (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 170 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 50 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 222 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 50 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 219 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 48 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 230 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 48 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 203 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 50 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 213 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 48 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 219 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 48 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 50 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 50 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 290 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 49 Stations : 10 Fair CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 216 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 49 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 203 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 50 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 274 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 49 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 73 Values : 20 Index : 0. 266 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 49 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 227 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 38 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 225 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 38 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 246 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 37 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 220 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 37 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 240 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 38 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 248 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 37 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 236 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 37 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAM MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 172 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 208 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 37 Stations : 10 Moderate CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 187 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !!Limited!! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 240 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 38 Stations : 10 Moderate ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 185 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !!Limited!! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 175 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !!Limited!! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Maximum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JFM MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over JFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JFM (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 107 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 187 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 157 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 180 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 163 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 5 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 178 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 173 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic MAM 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Dec initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 139 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 176 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 176 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 39 Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 152 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 163 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : 4 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 5 Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 174 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 169 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) January – February – March 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May – June 2016 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JFM 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ 2 m Minimum Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK ONDJFM caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic ONDJFM CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Nov Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over DJFM (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic ONDJFM Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 139 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 422 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 147 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 422 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 48 Values : 20 Index : 0. 141 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 Used : 35 Stations : 10 !Limited! ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : 3 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT OUTLOOK JJASONDFJMAM 2015 -16 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Nov (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 468 Values : 20 Index : 0. 111 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 407 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Drought Outlook Oct to Mar Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (December 2015): 2015 Drought concern is noted from Hispaniola eastand southward, except for most parts of Puerto Rico. We issue a drought warning in northern Dom. Republic as well as from Antigua southwards, except Grenada and Martinique where we issue a drought watch. caricof@cimh. edu. bb Previous Outlook

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of November 2015): (more information here) – Because of below-normal rainfall during the previous dry and wet seasons, water shortages occur in many portions of the Antilles. – Nearly all island nations are in longer-term drought (except Bahamas and Cuba). – Thanks to the return of more seasonable rainfall in parts of the region during October and November, some Antilles islands are currently no longer facing severe shorter-term drought. • Shorter-term (till March 2016): – We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may arise (or persist) from Hispaniola east- and southward, especially in ABC Islands, Antigua, Barbados, Guianas, Leewards. • Longer-term (beyond March 2016): – Very strong El Niño seems to have peaked in strength. El Niño often results in a drier early part of the year in the Lesser Antilles and drier secondary wet season in the northern Guianas. This may lead to drought concerns towards the end of the Caribbean dry season (i. e. May 31, 2016). – After El Niño peaks, it tends to dissipate towards the middle – and possibly replaced by a La Niña by the end – of the following year. This evolution could finally bring drought relief to the region. – Areas with existing water shortages may not see recovery until the next wet season, in particular Barbados, Belize, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards. RAISE AWARENESS & CONSERVE WATER!! caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 31 st, 2016)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until November 2015, 2015 with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-0. 8 (moderately dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the dry season (May 31 st) is a concern across all the Antilles except western Cuba (no data available for Haïti), and the Guianas. • A drought warning is issued for northern French Guiana and the Antilles, except Cayman, eastern Cuba, and Guadeloupe, for which we issue a drought watch. A drought watch is also issued for the Bahamas, southwest Belize and the rest of the Guianas. caricof@cimh. edu. bb Previous Outlook

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks January to March 2016 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1 , Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: January to March 2016 USUALLY: Number of wet days is low from January to March, except the Guianas which are in their secondary wet season. FORECAST: January to March rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), but above- to normal in Cayman, Cuba and Lucayan Islands. caricof@cimh. edu. bb IMPLICATION: Increasing surface dryness; fewer disruptions of outdoor activities and limited recharge of water reservoirs in Guianas.

Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: January to March 2016 JFM 2015 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells USUALLY: Very few wet spells occur after December, except in the Guianas. FORECAST: January to March rainfall expected to be below- to normal in eastern and southern Caribbean with fewer wet days (high confidence), wet spells (medium confidence) and extreme wet spells (medium confidence, but above- to normal in Cayman, Cuba and Lucayan Islands. caricof@cimh. edu. bb IMPLICATION: Limited flash flood potential.

January to March 2016 Forecast Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) caricof@cimh. edu. bb Number of 7 -day wet Number of 7 -day very wet Number of 3 -day spells in JFM 2016 extremely wet spells in Number of wet days in JFM 2016 (20% wettest) (10% wettest) JFM 2016 (1% wettest) Climatology Forecast 16 -35 17 -37 0 -2 0 -1. 2 0 -0 7 -27 0 -13 0 -5 0 -2. 9 0 -2 0 -1. 3 0 -0 16 -39 13 -32 0 -1. 1 0 -0 0 -0 20 -33 14 -33 0 -2 0 -1. 1 0 -0 0 -0 14 -26 15 -32 1 -3 0 -2. 3 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 6 0 -0 8 -19 12 -25 0 -1. 3 0 -2. 2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 9 -20 11 -26 1 -4 1. 9 -5. 1 0 -2. 5 0 -3. 1 0 -0. 5 0 -0 28 -47 21 -46 0 -2. 8 0 -2. 7 0 -1. 5 0 -0 15 -33 19 -44 20 -51 23 -50 21 -47 23 -53 14 -26 39 -54 26 -42 24 -42 28 -44 38 -53 32 -55 17 -35 15 -35 9 -22 0 -2. 8 0 -1 0 -0 10 -31 0 -6 0 -2. 2 0 -4. 4 0 -0. 7 0 -1 13 -37 0 -5. 5 0 -2. 1 0 -4 0 -0 0 -2 14 -34 0 -5 0 -2. 3 0 -4 0 -1. 3 0 -1. 5 14 -34 0 -6. 1 0 -2. 3 0 -4 0 -1. 5 16 -37 0 -5 0 -2 0 -4 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 5 16 -31 3 -8 3. 4 -8. 9 1 -5. 7 0. 8 -6. 8 0 -0 26 -56 0 -1. 1 0 -0 22 -38 0 -1 23 -40 0 -0 24 -45 0 -0 30 -55 0 -0 27 -44 9 -24 0 -0 8 -21 0 -0 brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase: grey none are expected 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0

APPENDIX caricof@cimh. edu. bb

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige 1. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige 3. shtml

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs El Niño region caricof@cimh. edu. bb Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //portal. iri. columbia. edu/portal/server. pt? open=512&obj. ID=585&Page. ID=0&cached=true&mode=2&user. ID=2

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2013 -december-quick-look/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!t ercile%20 summary!1%20 month!Tropics!201310!/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-rangeforecast? time=2015100100, 5088, 2016043000&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20 summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/cfsv 2/camerica_prec_prob 2. shtml

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. apcc 21. org/eng/service/6 mon/ps/japcc 030703. jsp

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast JFM 2015 (0. 5 month lead) caricof@cimh. edu. bb AMJ 2016 (3. 5 month lead)

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!t ercile%20 summary!1%20 month!Tropics!201310!/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2 m-temperature-public-charts-long-rangeforecast? time=2015100100, 3624, 2016022900&area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20 summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob