Cari COF Climate Outlook December 2014JanuaryFebruary 2015 and
Cari. COF Climate Outlook December 2014/January-February 2015 and March-April-May 2015 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands
Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC XLII FCAC – Ciudad de Guatemala, 09/10 -04 -2014 2
RAINFALL
DJF rainfall
CPT probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over October (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library) 2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over October 3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , October initialisation) 4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic 5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library) Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.
Experiment 1
Data: Predictor = CPT rainfall forecast October SST observations 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. Tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1971 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 150 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0. 165 Limited!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 1 DJF Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
Experiment 2
Data: Predictor = CPT rainfall forecast August SST observations 1979 -2014 90 -20 W and 0 -30 N (i. e. tropical N Atl. ) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 150 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0. 198 Limited!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 2 DJF Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
Experiment 3
Data: Predictor = CPT rainfall forecast DJF simulated SST 1982 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, August initialisation] Predictand = DJF rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1983 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 151 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 234 Moderate
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 3 DJF Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 4
Data: Predictor = CPT rainfall forecast DJF simulated SST 90 -20 W and 0 -30 N (i. e. tropical N Atl. ) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, August initialisation] Predictand = DJF rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1983 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 151 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0. 181 Limited!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 4 DJF Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
Experiment 5
Data: Predictor = CPT rainfall forecast DJF simulated rainfall 100 -40 W and 5 S-35 N (i. e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 5; optimum = 4 Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 150 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0. 190 Limited!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 5 DJF Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
MAM rainfall
CPT probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Oct (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the. IRI data library) 2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over MAM (data source: NOAA CPCFSv 2, Oct(initialisation)
Experiment 1
CPT MAM rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = Oct SST observations 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 121 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 057 !! Very Limited! !
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 1 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
Experiment 2
CPT MAM rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MAM simulated SST 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Nov initialisation] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 153 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 091 !! Very Limited!!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 2 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE
Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance: 1) Puerto Rico & USVI: DJF MAM A=%; N=%; B=% Note: 2) Guadeloupe: DJF Martinique : DJF French Guiana: DJF French Northern Antilles: DJF A = 35% ; A = 32% ; A = 30% ; A = 32% ; N = 35% ; N = 36% ; N = 35% ; B = 30% B = 32% B = 34% B = 33% Note: For the Lesser Antilles there is an agreement between several dynamic models (Eurosip, JMA) ) and statistic SST/RR (with skill) for a normal forecast in DJF 2014 -2015. (predictor stay SST over tropical North Atlantic and Pacific, with a low but positive ENSO anomaly). Over French Guiana : The statistic model has good skill and says normal or above. The dynamic models exhibit a drier than normal forecast. Over ASO, the drought situation was: Normal on St. Barth’s and dry in St. Martin, normal to dry in Guadeloupe, normal (windward side) to very dry (leeward side) in Martinique. Normal to wet conditions in French Guiana. 3) Barbados: DJF MAM A = 30%; N = 39% ; B = 31% A = 62%; N = 20% ; B = 18% Note: CPT CCA with ERRSTs and CFSv 2 SSTs showed good skill and fair discrimination for DJF, very limited skill and poor discrimination for MAM. 4) St. Maarten & NE Caribb. : DJF A = 37%; N = 32% ; B = 31% Note: CPT CCA with ERRSTs and CFSv 2 SSTs showed (very) limited skill and very poor discrimination for DJF
Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance: 5) Trinidad and Tobago: Note: DJF MAM A = 53% ; N = 31% ; B = 16% A=%; N=%; B=% CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed fair skill and no to good discrimination for 6) Jamaica: DJF A = 29% ; N = 22% ; B = 49% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited to moderate skill and no to good discrimination for DJF. 7) Suriname: DJF MAM A = 65% ; N = 25% ; B = 10% A = 40% ; N = 30% ; B = 30% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed fair to good skill and limited to fair discrimination for DJF, limited skill and discrimination for MAM. 8) Belize: Note: DJF A = 50% ; N = 30% ; B = 20% CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed moderate skill and discrimination for DJF. 10) Curaçao: Note: A = 57% ; N = 23% ; B = 20% CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited skill and no to fair discrimination for 9) St. Vincent: Note: DJF ASO A=%; N=%; B=%
Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance : 11) Grenada: DJF MAM A = 44% ; N = 33% ; B = 23% A = 41% ; N = 30% ; B = 29% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed moderate to fair skill and limited to moderate discrimination for DJF, negative skill and no discrimination for MAM. 12) Aruba: DJF A = 65% ; N = 24% ; B = 11% *** Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed fair skill and moderate to fair discrimination for DJF. ***After multi-model ensemble: A 40 N 35 B 25. 13) St. Lucia: DJF MAM A = 33% ; N = 33% ; B = 33% A = 32% ; N = 32% ; B = 36% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b showed limited skill and limited discrimination for DJF, negative skill and no discrimination for MAM. 14) Cayman: DJF A = 12% ; N = 22% ; B = 66% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited skill and no to moderate discrimination. 15) Dominica: DJF A = 46% ; N = 19% ; B = 35% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited to fair skill and no to good discrimination. 16) Guyana: DJF A=%; N=%; B=% DJF A = 48% ; N = 29% ; B = 23% Note: 17) Antigua: Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed very limited to fair skill and no to moderate discrimination.
Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance : 18) St. Kitts: DJF A = 62% ; N = 26% ; B = 12% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed very limited to fair skill and no to moderate discrimination. 19) Bahamas: DJF A = 25% ; N = 15% ; B = 59% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed negative (ERSST) to fair (CFSv 2) skill and no (ERSST) to moderate (CFSv 2) discrimination. 20) Cuba - West: Cuba - Central: Cuba - East: DJF DJF A = 26% ; N = 35% ; B = 39% A = 24% ; N = 36% ; B = 40% A = 40% ; N = 20% ; B = 41% Note: CPT CCA experiments using ERSSTv 3 b and CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited (ERSST) to fair (CFSv 2) skill and no to moderate discrimination.
Cari. COF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional rainfall outlooks
Cari. COF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional rainfall outlooks
Cari. COF precipitation outlooks
Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Eight data sources (incl. GPCs): 1) IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2) UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3) European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4) APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5) WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6) CFSv 2 model 7) Météo. France Arpège model. 8) JMA model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2 m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1) 2) 3) ENSO conditions have recently been (warm-)neutral (SST anom. 0 -0. 5°C). Most new model runs suggest a progression into an El Niño by NDJ 2014, with an estimated overall confidence of 67% for NDJ and 58 -66% for FMA. Similarly, SSTs are slightly above average around N and E of the Caribbean, as well as further out eastward in the N Atlantic. However, this marks a small reversal in anomalies compared to previous months and may be (partly) due to weaker trade winds. associated with an unusual northward excursion of the ITCZ in late September and the first half of October as well as two periods of negative NAO. Into FMA, indications are that eastern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic could return to average SSTs. Thanks to slightly warmer SSTs around the Atlantic during NDJ, average to above-average air moisture may be the prevalent pattern, marking a shift from a pattern of drier air observed during much of the year. Further, the suggested weak El Niño may sustain increased vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic as well as over eastern and southern Caribbean (including the Guianas). The signals of added moisture, but possibly stronger wind shear will counteract each other in producing anomalous rainfall. Testimony to the uncertainty as to which factor will dominate is the disagreement between some global models as to NDJ rainfall, with some suggesting below- to normal over the E Caribbean, and others rather above-normal.
Probabilistic DJF rainfall forecast map D D A R T F
Probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast map D D A R T F
2 m TEMPERATURE
DJF
CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m temp. forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over October (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library) 2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over October 3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , November initialisation) 4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF 5) Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over DJF (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library)
Experiment 1
Data: Predictor = CPT T 2 m forecast October SST observations 1979 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. Tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 6 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 259 Fair
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 1 DJF T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 2
Data: Predictor = CPT T 2 m forecast October SST observations 1979 -2014 90 -20 W and 030 N (i. e. tropical N Atl. ) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 4 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 7 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 280 Fair
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 2 DJF T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 3
Data: Predictor = CPT T 2 m forecast DJF simulated SST 1982 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Nov initialisation] Predictand = DJF T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1982 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 236 Moderate
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 3 DJF T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 4
Data: Predictor = CPT T 2 m forecast DJF simulated SST 90 -20 W and 0 -30 N (i. e. tropical N Atl. ) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Nov initialisation] Predictand = DJF T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1982 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 6 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 242 Moderate
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 4 DFJ T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 5
Data: Predictor = CPT T 2 m forecast DJF simulated T 2 m 100 -40 W and 5 S-35 N (i. e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library] Predictand = DJF T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 3; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 5; optimum = 3 Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 3 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 169 !Limited!
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 5 DJF T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
MAM T 2 m
CPT probabilistic MAM 2 m temp. forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over OCT (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the. IRI data library) 2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over MAM (data source: NOAA CPCFSv 2, November (initialisation)
Experiment 1
Data: Predictor = CPT MAM T 2 m forecast OCTOBER SST observations 1979 -2013 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 334 Good
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 1 MAM T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Experiment 2
Data: Predictor = CPT MAM T 2 m forecast MAM simulated SST 1983 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Nov initialisation] Predictand = MAM T 2 m for 51 Caribbean stations 1979 -2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 338 Good
ROC area maps
CCA modes
Experiment 2 MAM T 2 m Forecast Tercile maps ABOVE NORMAL BELOW
Supporting probabilistic T 2 m forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance: 1) Cayman: DJF A = 82% ; N = 10% ; B = 8% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b & CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited to fair skill and moderate to fair discrimination. Temperature will continue to be above normal. 2) Note: 3) St. Lucia: DJF MAM A = 60% ; N = 30% ; B = 10% A = 75% ; N = 20% ; B = 5% CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b showed good skill and fair to good discrimination for DJF and MAM. Puerto Rico & USVI: DJF MAM A=%; N=%; B=% Note: 4) St. Maarten & NE Caribb: DJF A = 49%; N = 36% ; B = 15% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b & CFSv 2 SSTs showed moderate & limited skill, resp. (GI 0. 36) but very poor discrimination. Temperature will continue to be above normal. 5) Note: 6) Note: 7) Note: 8) Note: 9) Note: Trinidad and Tobago: DJF A = 82% ; N = 14% ; B = 4% CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b & CFSv 2 SSTs showed good skill and discrimination. Jamaica: DJF A = 57% ; N = 23% ; B = 20% CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b & CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited to fair skill and no to moderate discrimination. Belize: DJF A = 63% ; N = 21% ; B = 16% CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b showed moderate skill and moderate to fair discrimination. St. Vincent: DJF A = 33% ; N = 39% ; B = 28% CPT CCA with ERSSTv 3 b & CFSv 2 SSTs showed fair skill and discrimination. Dominica: DJF A = 25% ; N = 27% ; B = 48% CPT CCA with limited to skill using ERSSTs & CFSv 2 SSTs and no to fair discrimination.
Supporting probabilistic T 2 m forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance: 10) Barbados: DJF A = 70% ; N = 26% ; B = 4% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs and CFSv 2 SSTs showed good skill and discrimination. 11) Guyana: DJF A=%; N=%; B=% DJF MAM A = 42% ; N = 35% ; B = 23% A = 27% ; N = 34% ; B = 39% Note: 12) Grenada: Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs and DJF CFSv 2 SSTs showed very limited to fair skill and no to limited discrimination for DJF, good skill and moderate to fair discrimination for MAM. 13) Suriname: DJF MAM A=%; N=%; B=% Note: CPT CCA with limited skill. IRI suggests 80% for AN for NDJ (but with longer climatology). 14) Aruba: DJF A = 76% ; N = 17% ; B = 7% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs and DJF CFSv 2 SSTs showed very good skill and discrimination for DJF. 15) Antigua: DJF A = 36% ; N = 38% ; B = 26% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs and DJF CFSv 2 SSTs showed limited to fair skill and no to moderate discrimination. 16) Bahamas: DJF MAM A = 55% ; N = 20% ; B = 25% A = 47% ; N = 21% ; B = 31% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs Oct (for DJF and MAM runs) and CFSv 2 SSTs (DJF run) showed very limited skill and no to limited discrimination. 17) St. Kitts: DJF A = 73% ; N = 8% ; B = 19%.
Supporting probabilistic T 2 m forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional objective forecasts & outlook guidance: 10) Cuba West: Cuba Central: Cuba East: DJF DJF DJF A = 28% ; A = 75% ; A = 33% ; A = 55% ; A = 54% ; A = 70% ; N = 34% ; N = 12% ; N = 25% ; N = 20% ; N = 17% ; N = 20% ; B = 44% (Tmax) B = 13% (Tmin) B = 41% (Tmax) B = 25% (Tmin) B = 29% (Tmax) B = 10% (Tmin) Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs Oct and CFSv 2 SSTs showed moderate to fair skill and no to fair discrimination.
Cari. COF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional T 2 m outlooks
Cari. COF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional T 2 m outlooks
Probabilistic DJF 2 m temperature forecast D D A R T F
Probabilistic MAM 2 m temperature forecast D D A R T F
Drought outlook
Supporting probabilistic SPI forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views: 1) Barbados: Note: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8)P = 43% Rel. Odds =3. 2 (drought watch) CPT CCA with moderate discrimination ROC 0. 68. 2) St. Maarten & NE Caribb: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) P = 44% Rel. Odds >3 (drought watch) Note: CPT CCA with moderate to good discrimination ROC 0. 6 -0. 9. 3) Trinidad & Tobago: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) watch) Note: CPT CCA with fair skill and moderate to good discrimination ROC 0. 6 -0. 9. 4) Jamaica: ASONDJFMA 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) drought alert in SE portions of the country) Note: P = 33% Rel. Odds = 1. 1 (no concern) CPT CCA with fair skill and good discrimination. 9) St. Lucia: Note: P = 30% Rel. Odds = 1 (no concern) CPT CCA with moderate skill. 8) Aruba: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 63% Rel. Odds = 7 (drought warning) CPT CCA with limited skill and good discrimination ROC 0. 85 -0. 95. 7) Grenada: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P < 20% Rel. Odds <1 (no concern) CPT CCA with negative skill and no to good discrimination ROC 0. 1 -0. 9. 6) St. Vincent: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 52% Rel. Odds =7 (drought warning, with CPT CCA with limited skill and moderate to good discrimination ROC 0. 6 -0. 9. 5) Belize: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 35% Rel. Odds =3. 4 (drought SONDJF (SPI < -1. 3) P = 16% Rel. Odds = 2. 3 CPT CCA with very limited skill but very good discrimination.
Supporting probabilistic SPI forecasts CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views: 10) Cayman: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: CPT CCA with very good discrimination. 11) Dominica: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 46% Rel. Odds =3. 7 (drought watch) CPT CCA with negative skill but good discrimination. 13) Bahamas: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 59% Rel. Odds =6 (drought warning) CPT CCA with good discrimination. 12) Antigua: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) Note: P = 70% Rel. Odds =10. 7 (drought alert) P = 18% Rel. Odds =0. 8 (no concern) CPT CCA with moderate skill and very good discrimination. 14) Cuba: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) P(West) = 31% ; P(Central) = 33% ; P(East) = 49 Rel. Odds(West) =1. 9 (no concern) ; Rel. Odds(Central) =2 (drought watch) ; Rel. Odds(West) =3. 9 (drought watch) 15) St. Kitts: hydrol. year 2014 -5 (SPI<-0. 8) P = 61% Rel. Odds ~6 (drought warning)
SPI outlook Sep to Feb – areas under immediate drought concern? October 2014’s update November 2014’s update: Drought concerns have continued in the western Caribbean, in particular in the vicinity of Cayman Islands, Haïti and in Jamaica (where drought concerns have elevated since last update), as well as in portions of the Guianas. Greater concern since last update exists in Puerto Rico and parts of the eastern Caribbean. 103
SPI outlook Hydrological Year 2014 -2015 – drought concern by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 30 th, 2015)? • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until October 2014, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. • Impactful hydrological drought is a concern in the Greater Antilles (except for Cuba), as well as in much of Leeward and Windward Islands, Trinidad & Tobago. • Drought is possible in Belize, the ABC Islands, Barbados and the western Guianas. 104
SPI outlook Sep 2014 to May 2015 – shorter- / longer-term concern? • Current drought situation: – Jamaica, Haïti and part of the Windward Islands are in drought and have suffered water shortages. • Shorter-term: – We expect that the drought situation to possibly appear in some of the islands and improve over others. • Longer-term: – It is possible that an El Niño will evolve by the end of this year. El Niño often results in a drier dry season (except for the NW Caribbean). – Water shortages may occur in portions of the Antilles during the dry season, which is our tourist season. CONSERVE WATER!! Especially in Cayman, Haïti, Jamaica, and E Caribbean. 105
Interpreting the drought alert levels Colour Alert level Meaning Suggested action level GREEN No Concern No drought concern Business as usual YELLOW Drought Watch Drought possible Keep updated, conserve water ORANGE Drought Warning Drought evolving Be prepared, conserve water. protect RED Drought Alert Drought of immediate concern Take action, ration water, protect 106
Appendix
US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/
US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/
NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml
Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs El Niño region Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //portal. iri. columbia. edu/portal/server. pt? open=512&obj. ID=585&Page. ID=0&cached=true&mode=2&user. ID=2
Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs El Niño region Caribbean & tropical Atlantic http: //portal. iri. columbia. edu/portal/server. pt? open=512&obj. ID=585&Page. ID=0&cached=true&mode=2&user. ID=2
Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_s st!sea%20 surface%20 temperature!1%20 month!Tropics!201401!ensemble%20 mean!/
Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2013 -december-quick-look/
http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2013 -december-quick-look/
IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
EUROSIP – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!tercile%20 s ummary!1%20 month!Tropics!201310!/
ECMWF – ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2 m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast
UK Met Office – probabilistic rainfall forecast ABOVE NORMAL BELOW http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob
NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/cfsv 2/camerica_prec_prob 2. shtml
APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //www. apcc 21. org/eng/service/6 mon/ps/japcc 030703. jsp
WMO LC for LRF-MME – Multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast https: //www. wmolc. org/modules/data/plot_PMME. php? tm_id=1&cdepth=3&upnum=6&ca_id=101&s 1=3&s 2=1&t 1
WMO LC for LRF-MME – Individual deterministic rainfall forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout
Japan Met Agency – probabilistic rainfall forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4 m. E/fcst_gl. php
TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology January, February & March
TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology April, May & June
TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology July, August & September
TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology October, November & December
IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
EUROSIP – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_rain!tercile%20 s ummary!1%20 month!Tropics!201309!/
ECMWF – ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2 m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast
UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast ABOVE NORMAL BELOW http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob
APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //www. apcc 21. org/eng/service/6 mon/ps/japcc 030703. jsp
WMO LC for LRF-MME – Multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast https: //www. wmolc. org/modules/data/plot_PMME. php? tm_id=1&cdepth=3&upnum=6&ca_id=101&s 1=3&s 2=1&t 1
WMO LC for LRF-MME – Individual deterministic T 2 m forecast https: //www. wmolc. org/modules/data/plot_PMME. php? sm_id=1&tm_id=1&cdepth=3&upnum=6&ca_id=101&s 1=3&s 2=1&t 1=4
WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range-Forecast – individual GPC models inter-model consistency https: //www. wmolc. org/modules/data/plot. php? tm_id=1&cdepth=3&upnum=6&ca_id=83&s 1=3&s 2=3&t 1=4#
Japan Met Agency – probabilistic T 2 m forecast http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4 m. E/fcst_gl. php
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