Cari COF Climate Outlook April May June 2019

Cari. COF Climate Outlook April- May- June 2019 and July-August-September 2019 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Dr. Teddy Allen – Asst. Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums Cari. COF - FCAC Cari. COF FCAC

RAINFALL caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb 3. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Mar (Initialisation). 4. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ 5. Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). 6. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Mar (initialisation). 7. Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean. caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 100 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 404 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 111 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 404 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Experiment 1 Index : caricof@!ci!Fair!0. 070 m. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 087 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 430 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 099 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 430 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ Mean precipitation forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Mar (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over --- (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 146 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 397 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 129 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 397 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cih. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 241 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 427 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 228 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 427 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July – August-September 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS Mean precipitation forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

2 M TEMPERATURE: MAXIMUM MINIMUM MEAN caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ forecast for 2 m Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Mar (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Mar (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS forecast for 2 m Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperatures CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Mar data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , Mar (Initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Mar (initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 133 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limted! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 054 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 39 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 39 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 134 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 190 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 158 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 115 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 40 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 40 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 254 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 264 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Maximum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July – August-September 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS Maximum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 140 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 40 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 40 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 150 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 4 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 198 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 5 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April – May-June 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

JAS MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 107 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 116 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 41 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : 39 Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : 52 Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 152 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 53 Values : 20 Index : 0. 155 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Minimum T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS Minimum 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML): AMJ caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 230 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 165 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 1 Used : 46 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 Experiment 3 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S CFSv 2 Experiment 4 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N CFSv 2

CPT probabilistic AMJ 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 223 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 46 Stations : 20 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 256 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 3 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic AMJ Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML): JAS caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 133 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 150 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 47 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 1 Experiment 3 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S CFSv 2 Experiment 4 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N CFSv 2

CPT probabilistic JAS 2 m Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 235 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 69 Values : 20 Index : 0. 231 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 46 Stations : 10 Moderate NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 2 Experiment 6 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Objective Mean T 2 m Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Probabilistic JAS Mean 2 m Temperature forecast map caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DROUGHT caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ CCA experiments: 1. 2. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 4, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 037 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 4 Used : 412 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 1 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 093 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 412 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 4 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 1 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic Jun 2018 – May 2019 CCA experiments: 1. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Dec (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 4, obtained from the IRI data library). caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic Jun- May Drought forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 1 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 472 Values : 20 Index : 0. 058 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 371 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 3 b Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Cari. COF Drought Outlook By the end of June 2019 Coordination: Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck - Climatologist Dr. Teddy Allen – Assistant Climatologist caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Shorter term Drought Outlook (January to June 2019) Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Current update (March 2019): We are currently in the core of the dry season. This time around, drought concern develops throughout much of the region. A drought warning should be considered for the ABC Islands, Grenada and Suriname. A drought watch should be considered for Barbados, central & south Belize, French Guiana, parts of Hispaniola, Leeward (except Guadeloupe) and Windward Islands, parts of the US C’bean Territories. Previous Outlook Short term drought alert levels by the end of June 2019 (updated March 2019 – covering January to June 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Long term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the dry season (May 31 st, 2019)? Current Outlook • This 12 -month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through February 2019, with potential impacts on large surface water reservoirs and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12 -month SPI is ≤-0. 8 (moderately dry or worse – ref. : CDPMN). • A drought warning should be considered for Antigua, Barbados, west-central Belize, N Dom. Rep. , Grenada, NE Guyana, St. Lucia, Tobago. • A drought watch should be considered for the remainder of the Antilles (except central Cuba, Guadeloupe and W Puerto Rico), most of Belize, N French Guiana, remainder of Guyana. Long term drought alert levels by the end of the 2019 dry season (updated March 2019 – covering June 2018 to May 2019 caricof@cimh. edu. bb Previous Outlook

Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern? • Current drought situation (up to the end of December 2018): (more information here) – Most areas in the Antilles (except Cuba, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, most of Jamaica, St. Kitts and Trinidad), Belize and northern Guyana have seen long term drought developing. – Shorter term drought is seen in the ABC Islands, Belize, much of French Guiana, northern Guyana, southern- and eastern-most Hispaniola, Lesser Antilles (except Grenada, Guadeloupe and St. Kitts), much of the US C’bean Territories. • Shorter term drought situation (by the end of May 2019): – Shorter term drought is evolving in the ABC Islands, Grenada and Suriname. – Shorter term drought might possibly develop in Barbados, central & south Belize, French Guiana, parts of Hispaniola, Leeward (except Guadeloupe) and Windward Islands, parts of US C’bean Terr. • Long term drought situation (by the end of May 2019): – A weak El Niño is expected to contribute to reduced rainfall up until May and possibly beyond. – Long term drought is evolving in Antigua, Barbados, west-central Belize, N Dom. Rep. , Grenada, NE Guyana, St. Lucia, Tobago. – Long term drought might possibly develop in the Antilles (except central Cuba, Guadeloupe and W Puerto Rico), most of Belize, N French Guiana, remainder of Guyana. Continue to MONITOR DROUGHT, look out for MONTHLY UPDATES & CONSERVE WATER!! caricof@cimh. edu. bb

ALERT LEVEL NO CONCERN DROUGHT WATCH DROUGHT WARNING DROUGHT EMERGENCY caricof@cimh. edu. bb MEANING ACTION LEVEL ü ü No drought concern ü ü monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure Drought possible ü ü ü keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure Drought evolving ü ü ü protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts ü ü Drought of immediate ü concern ü ü ü release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Thresholds Goodness Index Drought Skill Thresholds Alert Levels Probabilities Negative Skill <0 No Concern < 33. 3333 Very Limited 0 – 0. 1 Drought Watch 33. 3334 – 50 Limited 0. 1 – 0. 2 Drought Warning 50 – 83. 3333 Moderate 0. 2 – 0. 25 Fair 0. 25 -0. 3 Good > 0. 3 Drought Emergency ≥ 83. 3334 caricof@cimh. edu. bb ROC Discrimination Thresholds No < 0. 5 Poor 0. 5 0. 6 Moderate 0. 6 – 0. 7 Fair 0. 7 -0. 8 Good 0. 8 – 0. 95 Very Good > 0. 95

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – Wet days and Wet spells Outlooks April to June 2019 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Wazita Scott 1, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Precipitation outlook Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2019 AMJ 2019 Frequency of wet days USUALLY: Across the region during April-May -June, about 25 to 40 days out of a total of 91 days are wet days (coastal Guianas: 45 to 60 days; ABC Islands: 10 or less). FORECAST: AMJ rainfall may be drier than usual in Belize, Cuba, Hispaniola and the US C’bean Territories, with slightly fewer wet days in the latter two areas (low confid. ); but possibly wetter than usual in the Guianas, with slightly more wet days there (medium confid. ) and in ABC Isls. , Grenada, Trinidad & Tobago (low confid. ). IMPLICATIONS: • Frequency of outdoor activity disruptions due to rainfall should be increasing towards June. • Decreasing surface wetness towards April (Belize, Guianas and Greater Antilles) or May (Lesser Antilles) will progressively increase wild fire potential.

Precipitation outlook Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2019 AMJ 2019 frequency of 7 -day wet spells Wet days outlook USUALLY: 1 to 4 wet spells (ABC Islands up to 2; coastal Guianas: 3 to 6) occur from April to June, with 1 or 2 of them ending up very wet (ABC Islands: up to 1; coastal Guianas: 1 to 4). FORECAST: AMJ rainfall may be drier than usual in Belize, Cuba, Hispaniola and the US C’bean Territories, with slightly fewer wet days in the latter two areas (low confid. ); but possibly wetter than usual in the Guianas, with slightly more wet days, wet spells and very wet spells there (medium confid. ) and in ABC Isls. , Grenada, Trinidad & Tobago (low confid. ). AMJ 2019 frequency of 7 -day very wet spells IMPLICATIONS: • Depletion of large water reservoirs and soil moisture should continue up until the end of the dry season (i. e. usually late April or May). • Rising flood potential towards May, especially in coastal Guyana.

Precipitation outlook Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2019 AMJ 2019 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3 -day wet spells Wet days outlook Wet spells outlook Very wet spells outlook USUALLY: : Up to 1 extreme wet spell occur between April to June (Guianas: up to 2). FORECAST: AMJ rainfall may be drier than usual in Belize, Cuba, Hispaniola and the US C’bean Territories, with slightly fewer wet days in the latter two areas (low confid. ); but possibly wetter than usual in the Guianas, with slightly more wet days, wet spells and very wet spells there (medium confid. ) and in ABC Isls. , Grenada, Trinidad & Tobago (low confid. ). No significant change or a slight increase in the number of extreme wet spells is forecast. IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential throughout the region is expected to be of limited concern until April, but increase from May onwards.

Forecast 16 -32 3 -10 18 -35 20 -36 17 -30 16 -30 6 -20 Climatology 1. 2 -3. 8 0. 4 -1. 7 0. 9 -3. 9 1. 2 -3 2. 1 -3. 7 1. 3 -3. 6 Forecast 1. 1 -4. 2 0. 2 -1. 9 0. 9 -3. 7 1 -4. 1 1 -3. 4 1. 6 -4. 1 1 -4. 2 Climatology 0. 4 -2. 4 0 -1. 1 0. 4 -1. 9 0. 3 -2. 6 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 9 -2. 4 0. 4 -2. 1 Forecast 0. 5 -2. 4 0 -1. 2 0. 3 -2 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 4 -2. 2 0. 7 -2. 9 0 -2. 3 Climatology 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 9 0 -1 0 -1 Forecast 0 -1. 4 0 -0. 3 0 -1. 2 0 -0. 7 0 -1. 4 0 -1. 2 Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_73 Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) 17 -31 27 -43 41 -63 19 -34 26 -39 37 -52 44 -58 42 -54 45 -60 42 -60 41 -57 49 -61 20 -37 34 -50 25 -42 26 -41 22 -34 33 -55 57 -69 27 -44 22 -36 15 -31 24 -47 38 -63 19 -37 27 -41 38 -55 44 -62 42 -57 46 -61 42 -63 43 -60 48 -65 19 -40 31 -52 23 -42 22 -42 21 -35 32 -57 57 -71 27 -46 22 -38 1. 7 -4. 6 0. 8 -3. 4 0. 9 -4. 5 1. 2 -3. 4 2. 8 -6. 3 2. 7 -5. 6 3. 1 -6. 2 2. 7 -5. 6 3. 1 -6. 4 3 -6. 2 3. 2 -6. 4 3 -6. 4 2. 2 -5. 1 1. 4 -3. 2 1. 7 -4. 7 1. 2 -4. 1 1. 3 -3. 6 1. 3 -3. 8 3. 4 -6. 9 1. 4 -4. 1 1. 3 -3. 4 1. 4 -5 0. 9 -4. 4 1. 1 -4. 7 1. 2 -4 3. 2 -7. 8 3. 1 -7. 1 3. 7 -7. 4 3. 2 -7. 4 3. 3 -6. 7 3. 6 -7. 3 3. 5 -7. 7 3. 4 -7. 3 2 -5. 5 1. 3 -4 1. 6 -5. 1 1 -3. 9 1. 4 -4. 1 0. 9 -4 3. 7 -8 1. 6 -5 1. 4 -4. 5 0. 6 -3 0 -2. 4 0. 4 -2. 5 0. 4 -2. 1 1. 3 -3. 4 1. 3 -3 1. 5 -3. 4 1. 6 -3. 8 1. 2 -3. 9 1 -3. 4 0. 9 -3 0. 4 -2. 1 0. 9 -3. 6 0. 3 -2. 1 0. 4 -2. 1 1. 7 -4. 3 0. 4 -1. 9 0. 5 -3. 3 0 -2. 4 0. 3 -2. 9 0. 4 -2. 3 1. 3 -5. 1 1. 7 -3. 7 1. 7 -5. 4 1. 3 -3. 8 1. 4 -4. 4 1. 6 -4. 6 1. 3 -5. 6 1. 5 -4. 6 0. 8 -3. 8 0. 4 -2. 2 0. 8 -4 0. 3 -2. 2 0. 5 -2. 5 0. 4 -2 1. 8 -5. 3 0. 6 -2. 4 0. 4 -2. 4 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1. 5 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 1 0 -2 0 -1. 9 0 -0. 9 0 -1 0 -1. 3 0 -0 0 -1. 6 0 -0. 7 0 -2. 3 0 -2 0 -1. 6 0 -1. 7 0 -1. 2 0 -1. 5 0 -1. 3 0 -2. 1 0 -1. 6 0 -0. 3 0 -2 0 -0. 4 0 -1 0 -2. 2 0 -1. 2 0 -0. 9 grey none are expected Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Climatology 18 -31 4 -8 18 -33 19 -35 17 -28 18 -28 7 -18 dark blue an increase, No. of wet days No. of 7 -day wet spells (20% No. of 7 -day very wet spells No. of 3 -day extremely wet spells wettest) (10% wettest) (1% wettest) brown is a decrease in frequency, April to June 2019

Dry Spells Outlook for April to June 2019 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck caricof@cimh. edu. bb Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

How many 7 -day, 10 -day or 15 -day dry spells do we historically get on average from April to June? 10 -day dry spells 7 -day dry spells 15 -day dry spells

April to June 2019 Antigua (Green. Cas) Aruba (Beatrix) Bahamas (Freeport) Bahamas (New. Provi) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize_Belmopan Belize (C. Farm) Belize_Melinda Belize_PG-Airpor Belize_PGorda Belize_Towerhill Cayman Cuba_Camaguey Cuba_Casablanca Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana (Albion) Guyana_Apaikwa Guyana_Bmont 7 Guyana_Bmont. Fron Guyana (Charity) No. of 7 -dy dry spells Climatology 3 -6 9 -12 4 -8 4 -7 3 -6 5 -7 5 -8 4 -7 4 -8 2 -6 5 -8 4 -7 3 -7 5 -9 6 -10 0 -3 3 -7 1 -5 1 -4 0 -1 0 -4 Forecast 3 -7 9 -12 4 -8 4 -7 3 -8 2 -7 4 -8 5 -8 4 -7 4 -8 2 -6 5 -8 4 -8 3 -7 5 -9 6 -10 0 -4 3 -8 0 -5 1 -3 0 -1 0 -5 0 -4 No. of 10 -dy dry spells Climatology 1 -4 5 -8 1 -4 2 -3 1 -4 1 -3 3 -5 2 -4 2 -5 1 -4 2 -5 2 -4 1 -4 3 -5 3 -7 0 -2 2 -4 1 -4 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 Forecast 1 -4 5 -8 1 -4 2 -4 1 -4 0 -3 2 -5 2 -4 2 -5 0 -4 2 -5 1 -4 2 -6 3 -7 0 -2 1 -4 0 -2 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 No. of 15 -dy dry spells Climatology 0 -2 3 -5 1 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 1 -2 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 Forecast 0 -2 2 -5 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0

April to June 2019 cont. Guyana (De. Kindren) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Greatfall) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (Kamarang) Guyana (La. Bagat) Guyana (Leon. Front) Guyana (Mards) Guyana (Mc. Nabb. B) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Onderneeming) Guyana (Rose. Hall) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Jamaica (Sangster) Jamaica (Worthy. Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) St. Maarten (TNCM) Suriname (Zanderij) Trinidad (Piarco) Tobago (ANR Robinson) No. of 7 -dy dry spells Climatology Forecast 0 -3 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 0 -2 1 -4 0 -4 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3 1 -3 0 -3 1 -6 0 -5 0 -3 0 -3 0 -2 5 -8 4 -9 3 -6 2 -7 1 -4 1 -5 2 -6 2 -5 2 -7 1 -4 3 -6 3 -7 0 -1 2 -6 3 -6 3 -7 No. of 10 -dy dry spells Climatology Forecast 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 2 -4 2 -5 1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -3 0 -2 0 -2 1 -3 0 -0 1 -3 1 -3 No. of 15 -dy dry spells Climatology Forecast 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -0 0 -2 0 -0 0 -0 1 -2 1 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1

7 -day dry spells from April to June 2019 What is the FORECAST for April to June 2019? Historical avg. number of 7 -day dry spells Probability of at least THREE 7 -day dry spells THREE MAX number of 7 -day MAX number dry spells

15 -day dry spells from April to June 2019 What is the FORECAST for March to May 2019? Historical avg. number of 15 -day dry spells Probability of at least ONE 15 -day dry spell MAX number of 15 -day MAX number dry spells

APPENDIX caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/mean-temperature-anomalies/

Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-monthly-rainfall/ https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/spi-monitor/

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 5. shtml http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt 18. shtml

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm. shtml

Explanatory variables – NMME Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/NMME/seasanom. shtml Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_ssto? facets=undefined&time=2018100100, 744, 2018110100&stats=e

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c. gif

http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb

caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_rain? facets=undefined&time=2018100100, 744, 2018110100&stats=tsum

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/international/nmme/probabilistic_seasonal/nmme_precip_probabilistic. shtml#CENTRAL AMERICA

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Philippe Legoutté caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast JAS 2019 (3. 5 month lead) AMJ 2019 (0. 5 month lead) caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //iri. columbia. edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb https: //www. ecmwf. int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system 5_public_standard_2 mtm? facets=undefined&time=2018100100, 2208, 2019010100&stats=tsum

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2 m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier caricof@cimh. edu. bb

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2 m forecast caricof@cimh. edu. bb http: //ds. data. jma. go. jp/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3 -mon/fcst_gl. php

Environment Canada Can. SIPS - probabilistic T 2 m forecast AMJ 2019 (0. 5 month lead) caricof@cimh. edu. bb JAS 2019 (3. 5 month lead) http: //climate-modelling. canada. ca/

caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425 -1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424 -4733