Cargo Cult Science May Be Causing You To

Cargo Cult Science May Be Causing You To Lose Out On The Truth

“The real purpose of the scientific method is to make sure nature has misled you into thinking you know something you don’t know. ” – Robert Pirsig

“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know. ” - Albert Einstein

What we’re covering… • How important maintaining an objective process & avoiding the destruction cargo cult sciences cause, • What is the scientific method, • Evolution of my swing experiments (did you visit my http: //gohpl. com/swingexperiment link? ), and • How far I’ve come since 11 yo swing experiment…

A Couple Recurring Cast of Characters… Dr. Ben Goldacre: Ben is a bestselling author, broadcaster, campaigner, medical doctor and academic who specializes in unpicking the misuse of science and statistics by journalists, politicians, quacks, drug companies, and more.

A Couple Recurring Cast of Characters… Dr. Richard Feynman: American theoretical physicist, worked on Manhattan Project, received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965, British journal Physics World said he was ranked as one of the ten greatest physicists of all time, NY Times bestselling book.

Ben Goldacre, Bad Science: Quacks, Hacks, & Big Pharma Flacks…

Dr. Ben Goldacre Quote… “They have never tested an idea for themselves, using their own hands, or seen the results of that test, using their own eyes, and they have never thought carefully about what those results mean for the idea they are testing, using their own brain. ”

Dr. Richard Feynman’s best selling book Surely You’re Joking Mr. Feynman…

Dr. Feynman On Cargo Cult Science… “The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn't work. No airplanes land. So I call these things cargo cult science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land. ”

Dr. Feynman On Maintaining An Objective Nature… Paraphrasing: “Give people all the facts they need to judge the value of your contribution, not just info that leads to judgment into one outcome or another. Be careful of biases. ”

What is the Scientific Method? • Question • Background research • Hypothesis • Data Collection • Data Analysis & Conclusion

Evolution of Swing Experiments • 11 yo 6 th Grade Mike & Joey Experiment (1992) • To see what hits the ball farther a wood or metal bat • One wood, 2 Metal Bats Used • Pitched to each other • Looked at between 50 -100 batted balls • Marked off distances by “stepping off” each batted ball • Got a “C” on our project : -D

Evolution of Swing Experiments • October 2014 – ‘Showing numbers v. NOT showing numbers • To see which technique increased Bat Speed at Impact, and by how much • 100 consecutive swings one way, 100 consecutive swings the other, • Breaking the swing into 2 -steps • Found average 6 -mph gain in avg. Bat Speed at Impact by “Showing Numbers” • Problem: didn’t counter-balance the swings

Evolution of Swing Experiments • August 2015 – “Don’t Buy Expensive Bats Before Testing First” • Using same company & size metal bat (34/31), testing different models $200 v. $400 • 200 counter-balanced swings, • Zepp & Radar Gun measurements • Found $400 bat outperformed on Zepp (2 -4 – mph), but underperformed on BES readings (4. 6 mph) • Problem: end loaded v. balanced

How Far I’ve Come Since 11 yo… • How to isolate a variable (breaking swing apart), • Taking bigger sample sizes, • Collecting accurate apples to apples data, • Counter-balancing experiment (take out “warm-up” and “getting tired” biases

What We Went Over: • How important maintaining an objective process & avoiding the destruction cargo cult sciences cause, • What is the scientific method, • Evolution of my swing experiments, and • How far I’ve come since 11 yo swing experiment.

Please go to: http: //gohpl. com/swingexperiment and share your swing experiments… THANK YOU!