Capital Markets Overview Presented by Fritz Meyer Senior
Capital Markets Overview Presented by Fritz Meyer Senior Market Strategist CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09
Important Information Consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully. For this and other information about AIM funds, obtain a prospectus from your financial advisor and read it carefully before investing. Note: Not all products, materials or services available at all firms. Advisors, please contact your home office. 2 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Important Information The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker and are subject to change based on factors such as market and economic conditions. The author’s views and opinions are not necessarily those of Invesco Aim and are not guaranteed or warranted by Invesco Aim. These views and opinions are not an offer to buy a particular security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Past performance cannot guarantee comparable future results. 3 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Important Information Performance quoted is past performance and cannot guarantee comparable future results; current performance may be higher or lower. Results shown assume the reinvestment of dividends. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. Investing in small companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity. Foreign securities have additional risks, including exchange rate changes, political and economic upheaval, the relative lack of information about these companies, relatively low market liquidity and the potential lack of strict financial and accounting controls and standards. Investing in emerging markets involves greater risk than investing in more established markets such as risks relating to the relatively smaller size and lesser liquidity of these markets, high inflation rates, adverse political developments and lack of timely information. 4 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Important Information Diversification and asset allocation do not assure profit or eliminate the risk of loss. The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the U. S. stock market. Government securities, such as U. S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds offer a high degree of safety and they guarantee the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. U. S. T-bills are short-term securities with maturities of one year or less. Long-term government bonds used in this illustration have a maturity of approximately 20 years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of change in consumer prices, as determined by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Consumer Confidence — So Bad It Might Be Good Dow Jones Industrial Average Consumer Confidence Plunges have often coincided with market bottoms. Source: Copyright 2008© S 1060 A. Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Data as of Dec. 31, 2008. 6 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Stock Market Volatility equals risk S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Volatility Index 100 -day average of absolute change in S&P 500 Index Because stocks are volatile they have historically delivered an “equity risk premium. ” Volatility has spiked from recent lows, shaking investors out of stocks. Source: Copyright 2008© S 0237. Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Data as of Dec. 29, 2008. 7 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Taxable Bond Yield Spreads Versus U. S. Treasury Bonds U. S. Government Agency Bonds Mortgage. Backed Securities Investment. Grade Corporate Bonds High-Yield Bonds Source: Copyright 2008© B 0384. Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Data as of Dec. 29, 2008. 8 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Stocks Have Bottomed Mid Recession S&P 500 Clear bands indicate recession. Nov-08 Sources: Standard & Poor’s; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data as of Nov. 30, 2008. 9 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Gross Domestic Product Growth — Actual and Forecast Key recovery drivers: homebuilding, business investment in capital expenditures and inventories and consumer spending on durables (autos). Stimuli: plunge in energy, lower mortgage rates and fiscal stimulus package. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data as of Dec. 23, 2008. Wall Street Journal survey taken Dec. 5 -8, 2008. 10 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Consumer Outlook — Household Balance Sheet Household Debt as a Percent of Total Household Assets This ratio has jumped higher mainly due to falling asset prices (denominator). Source: Federal Reserve. Data through Sept. 30, 2008. 11 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Housing Starts Outlook — Actual and Forecast Annual Growth in Number of Households (actual and estimated) Housing Starts (actual) Housing Starts (estimated) Sources: U. S. Census Bureau. Data as of Nov. 30, 2008. Mortgage Bankers Association’s housing starts forecast dated Dec. 11, 2008. Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, March 2006. 12 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Big Picture: Echo Boom Bigger Than Baby Boom and Still Growing Labor force to grow 0. 8% per year through 2016 U. S. Live Births 1909– 2006 Is this the next baby boom? USA Today July 17, 2008 Baby Boomers (1946– 1976) 117 million Echo Boomers (1977– 2007) 120 million Sources: 1909 to 2004: U. S. Census Bureau; The 2007 Statistical Abstract; 2005 to 2007: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services; National Center for Health Statistics. Preliminary data for 2006 and 2007. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 13 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Inflation Has Plunged With Oil Prices Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data as of Nov. 30, 2008. 14 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Federal Reserve Policy Shock and awe “Sure we have mortgage money. It’s just that you can’t have any. ” 15 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Quantitative Easing Flooding the banking system with excess (lendable) reserves Slope = +5. 6% Source: Federal Reserve. H. 3 Table 5 and H. 6 Table 7. Data as of Dec. 17, 2008. 16 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Federal Budget Deficit as a Percent of GDP Congressional Budget Office January 2009 Projections Source: Actual: BEA. Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted annual rates. Data through Sept. 30, 2008. Projected: Congressional Budget Office, September 2008 Forecast. Annual data. 17 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Federal Debt As a percent of GDP compared to other nations Source: CIA World Factbook, last updated December 2008 with 2007 estimates. 18 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Spending Projections (2007) Percent of GDP Actual Projected Medicare and Medicaid Social Security Other Federal Noninterest Spending Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), The Long-Term Budget Outlook, December 2007. The CBO’s actual and projected figures exclude interest payments on the federal debt which amounted to an estimated 1. 7% of the GDP in 2007. 19 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
S&P 500 — Earnings Drive Stock Prices 1 10452 1 Range of bottom-up/top-down estimated 2009 S&P 500 earnings Per Share (left scale): $76. 43/$63. 00 2 Average 2009 S&P 500 year-end forecast (right scale) of the 12 Wall Street strategists surveyed by Barron’s, published Dec. 22, 2008 Source: Thomson Baseline. Data through Dec. 22, 2008. Reuters survey of consensus estimates as of Dec. 19, 2008. 20 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Stock Market Arithmetic 7% earnings growth + reinvested dividends = ~10% * Growth paths are compounded monthly to yield 5% and 7% annually. ** Excludes write-offs. Data through Nov. 30, 2008. Source: Copyright 2008© Yardeni Research, Inc. Strategist’s Handbook, Dec. 5, 2008, page 18. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 21 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
S&P 500 Total Return Index Since 1925 Trend Line Slope = 11% Source: Copyright© Thechartstore. com, with permission. Data through Oct. 31, 2008. 22 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
S&P 500 Index Total Return Since 1989 Trend Line Slope = 11% “History suggests that this is a smart time to invest in U. S. equities. ” - Warren Buffet Oct. 17, 2008 Source: Baseline. Data through Nov. 25, 2008. 23 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Investment Strategy “Winning is crucial to my retirement plans. ” 24 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Asset Allocation Harvard-Yale Style Portfolio for a New Era In “When Markets Collide, ” El-Erian proposes this neutral asset mix for long-term investors. Equities U. S. 15% Other advanced economies 15% Emerging economies 12% Private 7% 49% Bonds U. S. 5% International 9% Real Assets Real estate Commodities 6% 11% Inflation protected bonds 5% Infrastructure 5% 27% Special Opportunities Expected long-term real return Expected standard deviation Source: “When Markets Collide” 25 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 Mohammed El-Erian, Pimco CEO and CIO and former president of Harvard’s endowment: “U. S. -based individual investors have too much invested in the U. S. and not enough internationally. ” “Use weakness to get exposure to emerging economies because that is where the growth is going to be long term. ” “People should be asking how much inflation protection they have. At some point, real estate will be attractive again as an inflation hedge. ” 8% 5%– 7% 8%– 12% Source: Barron’s, June 2, 2008. invescoaim. com
Investment Theme: Dividend Growth Dividend growers have historically done the best Past performance cannot guarantee comparable future results. Source: Copyright 2008© S 09. Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Data as of Oct. 31, 2008. 26 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
About Risk Investing in small companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity. Foreign securities have additional risks, including exchange rate changes, political and economic upheaval, the relative lack of information about these companies, relatively low market liquidity and the potential lack of strict financial and accounting controls and standards. Investing in emerging markets involves greater risk than investing in more established markets such as risks relating to the relatively smaller size and lesser liquidity of these markets, high inflation rates, adverse political developments and lack of timely information. 27 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
To Conclude • Stock market volatility has cycled up and down over time. Spikes have marked stock market turns. • The economy is in recession. • Stocks have bottomed mid recession. • Stocks have historically low forward priceearnings multiples. • Stocks have an 11% long-term trend. • Taxable and tax-exempt bonds are on sale. • Commodities have corrected sharply. • Asset allocation (modern portfolio theory) is one of the best investment methods yet. • El-Erian’s recommended asset allocation is something to consider. “It’s just a correction. The fundamentals are still good. ” 28 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
And Don’t Believe Everything You Hear A study by Media Research Center of a year’s worth of economic coverage on ABC, CBS and NBC found more than twice as many stories and briefs focused on negative aspects of the economy (62%) compared to good news (31%). Source: Media Research Center, “Bad News Bears, ” October 2006 “We were wondering if now would be a good time to panic? ” 29 CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 invescoaim. com
Thank You Invesco Aim. SM is a service mark of Invesco Aim Management Group, Inc. Invesco Aim Advisors, Inc. , Invesco Aim Capital Management, Inc. , Invesco Aim Private Asset Management, Inc. and Invesco Power. Shares Capital Management LLC are the investment advisors for the products and services represented by Invesco Aim; they each provide investment advisory services to individual and institutional clients and do not sell securities. Please refer to each fund’s prospectus for information on the fund’s subadvisors. Invesco Aim Distributors, Inc. is the U. S. distributor for the retail mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and institutional money market funds represented by Invesco Aim. All entities are indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd. All data provided by Invesco Aim unless otherwise noted. CMO-PPT-2 P 1. 09 Invesco Aim Distributors, Inc.
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