Canadian Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Program Project A

Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A 515 Newfoundland – Labrador Shelf & WWF Scotian Shelf Sea Surface Temperature Changes & Biogeographic Ranges of Northeast US Continental Shelf Commercial Marine Species Gail L. Chmura 1, Lou Van Guelpen 2, Gerhard W. Pohle 2, Sarah Vereault 1, and Elizabeth Flanary 1 www. geog. mcgill. ca/climatechange/ www. wwf. ca 1 Mc. Gill University & Global Environment and Climate Change Centre 2 Huntsman Marine Science Centre / Atlantic Reference Centre

For each species the “thermal niche” or “bioclimate envelope” was determined from its geographical distribution (water depths & range in latitude) with respect to satellite-derived (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperatures. We determined the winter minimum and summer maximum. February August We determined future temperatures by adding the change image to this one.

Laminaria digitata – reported thermal niche (or range) is -2 to 22°C Plotted from temperatures reported in the literature. Plotted from temperatures derived from distribution data.

Scenarios of Forcing Factors Used – from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B 2 forecasts low population growth and more concern for the environment A 2 forecasts high population growth and less concern for the environment greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases (& sulphate aerosols) WWW. IPCC. ch

We used output from global circulation / global climate models – actually Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) 2 periods used: 1960 -1999 = baseline 2070 -2099 = 4°C avg global warming Plus: 2030 -2059 = 2°C avg global warming - see website New 2005

Using geospatial statistics we downscaled the coarse output of each AOGCM Hadley Centre AOGCMs vary in their number of layers and algorithms for the processes and transfers among the layers.

AOGCMs vary in their spatial resolution. Spatial Resolution of Models (°lat & long) CCCma 3. 75 x 3. 75 CCSR/NIES 5. 6 x 5. 6 CSIRO 3. 2 x 5. 6 GFDL 2. 25 x 3. 75 GFDL (US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

= - avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the period 2070 -2099 avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the baseline period 1960 -1999 change in SSTs for that month (at the center of each pixel)

“downscaled” GFDL grid in vector format. change in SSTs GFDL changefield for February

Change = 2099 minus the baseline: February CCCma CCSR CSIRO GFDL A 2 B 2 change in temp. August A 2 Greater differences among models than between scenarios. B 2

CCCma February A 2 B 2 August A 2 B 2 CCSR CSIRO GFDL

real-time satellite data, averaged, & 9 km resolution interpolated (downscaled) change in SSTs = + GFDL changefield for Feb future sea surface temperatures February AVHRR SST GFDL prediction for Feb SST 2079 -2099.