Can Computers Compete With Human Experience Gaye Banfield

Can Computers Compete With Human Experience? Gaye Banfield Gaye. Banfield@bpp. com

We have come along way since Eliza & The Doctor? n n n Intelligent decision-making - AIs analyse information from hundreds of data sources making key decisions Behaviour-based search are used extensively in online shopping AIs predicts market movements using huge quantities of historical data – Algorithmic Trading Data mining to your digital personality– webscraping - looking at a person's word choice, work history AI-enabled videos interpreting a person's facial expressions and word choices

But we aren’t quite there yet? n n n Bad decisions on dodgy data – GBP Flash Crash blamed on an over zealous AI How to spoof a market – NYSE steps in AIs in overdrive – Knight Capital & the NYSE Never assume – PVDMI incorrect classification Only good as the data – false positives – HSBC voice recognition problems

Human intelligence = intuition + consciousness + emotion intuition consciousness emotion

Gut Feeling n n n The ability to know things without consciously reasoning Draws on past knowledge and experience As a process it happens suddenly Does not follow logical thinking People with knowledge and experience are able to apply gut feeling better than novice people

Evidence for Gut Feeling n Financial traders are better at reading their ‘gut feelings’ than the general population – and the better they are at this ability, the more successful they are as traders Reference Kandasamy, N, Garfinkel, SN, Page, L et al. Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor. Scientific Reports; 19 Sept 2016; DOI: 10. 1038/srep 32986 n Top Athletes - “The new sports battleground is no longer about the value of a stats approach vs. a traditional one. Most teams by now realize that blending the two offers a better shot at winning. ” Reference https: //www. seattletimes. com/sports/mariners/athletes-coaches-trying-to-findbalance-between-analytics-and-gut-feeling/

The End Game n To have humans and machines seamlessly interacting there needs to be a common, pseudo-emotional, understanding n Need AIs with more ‘gut feeling’ about them “If we focus on conscious mind and model it as a piece of software we will conclude that humans are doomed. But, if we recognize that body and brain act as a single functioning unit…then we will also recognize how exquisitely we are constructed for rapid pattern recognition. Humans can indeed compete against the machines. ” John Coates ex-trader, neuroscientist

AI & Gut Feeling Input +Process + Learn = Output Agent Environment Critic Input Output Process Feedback Ø Ø Input/State is the opponent’s previous action (or biological feedback) Output/Action is the network’s action (behaviour) There is no memory of past rewards and no mechanism for estimating future rewards - myopic.

Modelling the End Game NN EC FS QC AI Gut Feel Computational Intelligence Paradigms modelling Gut Feeling

To Summarize No decision we make is entirely rational There is some emotional input involved Minimizing emotion comes with time and experience n Sharpening your intuition, your gut feeling also comes with time and experience n Combining logic, data, and gut feeling are bound to make for better decisions n n n