California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification IEPR Workshop on

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California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts November 24, 2015 Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

California Energy Commission Overview • Introduction Overview of demand cases & Input Scenarios •

California Energy Commission Overview • Introduction Overview of demand cases & Input Scenarios • Transportation Electrification • Plug-in Electric Vehicles (Light Duty) 2

California Energy Commission Energy Demand Forecasting Models • Transportation Energy Demand: – Accounts for

California Energy Commission Energy Demand Forecasting Models • Transportation Energy Demand: – Accounts for all energy used for movement of people and goods, by fuel type, on California roads and rail system. • Off-Road: – Accounts for diesel and gasoline used in off-road applications of moving or stationary equipment in different sectors of the economy. • TCU: – Accounts for stationary use of electricity and natural gas in Transportation, Communication, and Utility (TCU) sectors, such as shore power, ground power at airports, and others. • Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural (3 models): – Accounts for electricity use of moving equipment such as forklifts and tractors. • Residential: – Accounts for electricity use of moving equipment e. g. boats 3

California Energy Commission 6 Demand Cases Input Scenarios Income/ Demand Cases Population Fuel Prices

California Energy Commission 6 Demand Cases Input Scenarios Income/ Demand Cases Population Fuel Prices Liquid Fuels LDV NG, Electric, Preference Vehicle Price High for ZEV Transition 2030 Hydrogen Common Demand High Energy Cases Demand H L L (Increasing over Time) Low Energy L H H Demand Mid Energy Constant (2013 H Survey) M M M High for ZEV Transition 2050 H L H Constant (2013 H Demand Transportation- High Petroleum Specific Demand Cases Low Petroleum Survey) L H L Demand High for ZEV Transition 2030 (Increasing over Time) High Alternative Fuel Demand H H L High for ZEV Transition 2030 (Increasing over Time) 4

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification 5

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification 5

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification • Typically refers to the use of electricity in

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification • Typically refers to the use of electricity in on-road and off-road movement of people and goods. • On-road (includes rail) • Light duty vehicles (LDV) for personal transportation • Medium/heavy duty vehicles used in short distance goods movement and service trucks. • Long distance fixed route movements (Post-Processed): Ø High Speed Rail Ø Electrified Commute Rail • Short distance fixed route movements: Ø Light Rail for Urban Transit Ø Catenary buses and trucks (currently only for demonstration) • Off-road • Movements (Forklift, vehicles used inside airports, etc) • Stationary (idled trucks and ships at truck stops, ports) 6

California Energy Commission Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV): Prominent in Electrification • Includes Battery Electric

California Energy Commission Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV): Prominent in Electrification • Includes Battery Electric vehicles (BEV and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) – Also refers to Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV), but staff forecasts NEVs separately. • Most PEV scenario discussions focus on Light Duty Vehicles (excluding NEVs) • Staff uses behavioral models to forecast PEV demand, along with all other fuels and LDVs. 7

California Energy Commission Key Inputs Driving PEV Demand (Same for All LDVs) • •

California Energy Commission Key Inputs Driving PEV Demand (Same for All LDVs) • • Vehicle Prices Fuel Economy Range (more sensitive for PEVs) Incentives Consumer Preferences Choices of Vehicle Class and Models 8

California Energy Commission What Inputs Are Different in the Revised PEV Forecast? • There

California Energy Commission What Inputs Are Different in the Revised PEV Forecast? • There are three scenarios for each of the following vehicle attributes: • Vehicle Price • Makes and Models • Range (2 input scenarios) • Consumer preferences (2 input scenarios) • Input scenarios are more favorable to ZEV vehicles, to ensure better ZEV compliance in the mid and high energy demand cases. 9

California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicles in the Three Common Energy Demand Cases •

California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicles in the Three Common Energy Demand Cases • High Energy Demand: – High income and population, low energy prices, high ZEV preferences, ZEV prices converging with gasoline in 2030. • Mid Energy Demand: – Mid income, population, and energy prices, High ZEV Preferences, ZEV prices converging with gasoline in 2050. • Low Energy Demand: – Low income & population, High energy prices, Low ZEV Preferences, ZEV price increments over gasoline vehicles constant at 2014 levels. 10

California Energy Commission Percent* of Total LDV Sales: Increasing Preferences for PEVs? Fuel/Technology Type

California Energy Commission Percent* of Total LDV Sales: Increasing Preferences for PEVs? Fuel/Technology Type Gasoline Ethanol Hybrid Diesel Plug-in hybrid Electric Natural gas Hydrogen New Vehicle Sales** 2010 85. 08% 8. 09% 5. 13% 1. 66% 0. 00% 0. 04% 0. 00% 2011 80. 55% 11. 84% 4. 83% 2. 09% 0. 14% 0. 47% 0. 09% 0. 00% 2012 78. 27% 12. 41% 6. 29% 1. 85% 0. 81% 0. 28% 0. 09% 0. 00% 2013 75. 98% 12. 06% 7. 36% 1. 77% 1. 59% 1. 21% 0. 03% 0. 00% 2014 78. 66% 9. 83% 6. 03% 2. 41% 1. 78% 1. 25% 0. 04% 0. 00% 1, 009, 452. 00 1, 419, 722. 00 1, 774, 719. 00 1, 976, 345. 00 2, 130, 627. 00 * Percent of same model year sales of same calendar year total new vehicle sales, e. g. 2013 models years sold new in 2013 calendar year. ** New Vehicle sales is the sum of all model years sold new in the calendar year, e. g. 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 model years sold new in 2010 calendar year. 11

California Energy Commission Retail Price Equivalents Required for Transition to AFVs: Passenger Cars, High

California Energy Commission Retail Price Equivalents Required for Transition to AFVs: Passenger Cars, High Volume, Fully Learned Source: http: //onlinepubs. trb. org/onlinepubs/conferences/2015/sustainability/24. David. Greene. pdf 12

California Energy Commission High Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle

California Energy Commission High Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle Prices in 2030, in $2013 13

California Energy Commission Mid Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle

California Energy Commission Mid Energy Demand Case: ZEV Vehicle Price Converge to Gasoline Vehicle Prices in 2050, 2013$ 14

California Energy Commission Low Energy Demand Case: Constant ZEV Vehicle Price Increments vs. Gasoline

California Energy Commission Low Energy Demand Case: Constant ZEV Vehicle Price Increments vs. Gasoline 15

California Energy Commission Vehicle Class Choices: ZEV vs Gasoline (Forecast) Vehicle Class Gasoline PHEV

California Energy Commission Vehicle Class Choices: ZEV vs Gasoline (Forecast) Vehicle Class Gasoline PHEV Electric Fuel Cell Subcompact 1966 2012 1966 2003 Compact 1965 2011 1969 - Midsize 1956 2012 1969 2013 Large 1961 2015 2012 2018 Sport 1962 2014 1972 - Cross Utility - Small 1998 2015 2006 2011 Cross Utility - Small Truck 1966 2015 1998 2015 Cross Utility - Midsize 1993 2015 2006 2009 Sports Utility - Compact 1966 2017 1995 - Sports Utility - Midsize 1966 - 2006 - Sports Utility - Large 1966 - 1987 2018 Sports Utility - Heavy (8, 500 -10, 000 1987 - - - Van - Compact 1966 2017 1973 - Van - Large 1966 - 1995 2018 Van – Heavy (8, 500 -10, 000) 1966 - 1989 - Pickup - Compact 1966 2017 1982 - Pickup - Standard 1951 - 2004 2018 Pickup - Heavy (8, 500 -10, 000) 1958 - 1996 - 16

California Energy Commission Air Resources Board’s ZEV Most Likely Scenario: Cumulative Sales Source: ARB

California Energy Commission Air Resources Board’s ZEV Most Likely Scenario: Cumulative Sales Source: ARB 17

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification Assessment (TEA) Study Created ZEV based scenarios: • •

California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification Assessment (TEA) Study Created ZEV based scenarios: • • • ZEV Compliance: Assuming a 50/50 split between PEVs and fuel cell vehicles. ZEV Program “Most Likely Compliance” Scenario x 3 Source: ICF, California Transportation Electrification Assessment, September 2014 http: //www. caletc. com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Cal. ETC_TEA_Phase_1 -FINAL_Updated_092014. pdf 18

California Energy Commission PEV Demand Forecast: Number of On-Road Vehicles 19

California Energy Commission PEV Demand Forecast: Number of On-Road Vehicles 19

California Energy Commission Mass Transit & Freight • Short Distance: – Direct Electric •

California Energy Commission Mass Transit & Freight • Short Distance: – Direct Electric • Light Rail • Electrified Rail • Trolley Busses – Electric Transit/School Busses – EV Trucks (Class 4 -6) • Long Distance: High Speed Rail; Direct Electric: Catenary Truck (Demo only now); 20

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division aniss.

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division aniss. bahreinian@energy. ca. gov / 916 -653 -0381 21