California Energy Commission Summary of Planning Area Forecasts

California Energy Commission Summary of Planning Area Forecasts: CED 2017 Revised December 15, 2017 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division Chris. Kavalec@energy. ca. gov 916 -654 -5184 1

California Energy Commission Summary of Results Average annual % growth in sales (2016 -2030) and net peak (2017 -2030) Electricity Sales (GWh) High Mid Net Peak (MW) Low High Mid Low LADWP 1. 35% 0. 91% 0. 45% 1. 43% 0. 84% 0. 30% PG&E 1. 35% 0. 65% -0. 09% 1. 73% 1. 08% 0. 59% SCE 1. 34% 0. 63% -0. 11% 1. 46% 0. 55% -0. 16% SDG&E 1. 39% 0. 64% -0. 21% 1. 61% 1. 00% 0. 50% SMUD 2. 06% 1. 49% 0. 97% 2. 01% 1. 14% 0. 53% 2

California Energy Commission LADWP 3

California Energy Commission LADWP Highlights (Inputs) • Population growth of 0. 53% per year 2016 -2030, from 3. 98 million to 4. 26 million; growth in number of households of 0. 73 percent per year in mid case • Personal income growth of 2. 8% per year in mid case • 1, 800 GWh consumption from light-duty EVs on the road in 2030 in the mid case, of which 1, 000 GWh is residential EV consumption • BTM PV installed capacity of 650 MW in 2030 in mid case 4

California Energy Commission LADWP: Baseline Consumption Average growth 2016 -2027 of 1. 51%, 1. 28%, and 0. 83% vs. 1. 02% in CEDU 2016 mid 35, 000 20, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 15, 000 1990 GWH 30, 000 5

California Energy Commission LADWP: Baseline Peak End-Use Load Average growth 2017 -2027 of 1. 66%, 1. 19%, and 0. 82% vs. 0. 82% in CEDU 2016 mid 6

California Energy Commission LADWP: Consumption to Sales (Mid) ~3, 100 g. Wh of total self-generation in 2030, of which 1, 100 is PV 7

California Energy Commission LADWP: End Use Load to Net Peak (Mid) ~620 MW of total self-generation in 2030, of which 290 is PV 8, 000 Peak End-Use Load 7, 500 Gross Generation Net Peak Self-Generation 6, 500 Losses 6, 000 5, 500 Average Annual Growth Net Peak 2017 -2030 = 0. 84% 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 5, 000 2016 MW 7, 000 8

California Energy Commission LADWP Highlights (Output) • In mid case, residential baseline consumption grows at 1. 89% per year, 2016 -2030, commercial by 1. 11%, industrial by -0. 42% • Because of relatively weak commercial and industrial consumption growth, LADWP consumption grows slower than state average 2016 -2030 in mid case • Electrification contributes 155 GWh to consumption by 2030 9

California Energy Commission PG&E 10

California Energy Commission PG&E Highlights (Inputs) • Population growth of 0. 95% per year 2016 -2030, from 13. 8 million to 15. 7 million; growth in number of households of 1. 03 percent per year in mid case • Personal income growth of 2. 9% per year in mid case • 6, 000 GWh consumption from light-duty EVs on the road in 2030 in the mid case, of which 3, 400 GWh is residential EV consumption • BTM PV installed capacity of 8, 700 MW in 2030 in mid case 11

California Energy Commission PG&E: Baseline Consumption Average growth 2016 -2027 of 1. 66%, 1. 37%, and 1. 07% vs. 1. 13% in CEDU 2016 mid 140, 000 130, 000 120, 000 100, 000 90, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid 80, 000 CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid 70, 000 History 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 60, 000 1990 GWH 110, 000 12

California Energy Commission PG&E: Baseline Peak End-Use Load Average growth 2017 -2027 of 1. 69%, 1. 29%, and 0. 98% vs. 1. 13% in CEDU 2016 mid 30, 000 28, 000 26, 000 24, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History 20, 000 18, 000 16, 000 14, 000 12, 000 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 10, 000 1990 MW 22, 000 13

California Energy Commission PG&E: Consumption to Sales (Mid) ~23, 000 GWh of total self-generation in 2030, of which 15, 000 is PV 130, 000 120, 000 110, 000 100, 000 90, 000 Average annual growth in sales 2016 -2030 = 0. 65% 80, 000 Consumption Sales 70, 000 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 60, 000 2015 GWH Self-Generation 14

California Energy Commission PG&E: Impact of Peak Shift (Mid) ~2, 200 MW increase in net peak by 2030 29, 000 27, 000 25, 000 Peak Shift MW 23, 000 21, 000 Average Annual Growth Adjusted Net Peak 2017 -2030 = 1. 08% 19, 000 Gross Generation at Peak End Use Load Unadjusted Net Peak 17, 000 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2022 Adjusted Net Peak 15, 000 15

California Energy Commission PG&E Highlights (Output) • In mid case, residential baseline consumption grows at 2. 12% per year, 2016 -2030, commercial by 1. 47%, industrial by 0. 22% • Fueled by relatively strong residential and commercial growth, PG&E consumption grows faster than state average 2016 -2030 • Due to peak shift, net peak grows faster than sales 16

California Energy Commission PG&E: Baseline and Managed Sales Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 12, 600 GWh reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 130, 000 120, 000 GWh 110, 000 100, 000 90, 000 80, 000 70, 000 60, 000 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mid Baseline Sales 2021 2022 2023 2024 Managed Sales Mid-Mid 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Managed Sales Mid-Low 17

California Energy Commission PG&E: Baseline and Managed Peak Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 3, 100 MW reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 25, 000 24, 000 23, 000 22, 000 MW 21, 000 20, 000 19, 000 18, 000 17, 000 16, 000 15, 000 1 2 3 4 Mid Baseline Net Peak 5 6 7 8 Managed Net Peak Mid-Mid 9 10 11 12 13 14 Managed Net Peak Mid-Low 18

California Energy Commission SCE 19

California Energy Commission SCE Highlights (Inputs) • Population growth of 0. 70% per year 2016 -2030, from 14. 9 million to 16. 4 million; growth in number of households of 0. 89 percent per year in mid case • Personal income growth of 2. 5% per year in mid case • 4, 000 GWh consumption from light-duty EVs on the road in 2030 in the mid case, of which 1, 800 GWh is residential EV consumption • BTM PV installed capacity of 6, 900 MW in 2030 in mid case 20

California Energy Commission SCE: Baseline Consumption Average growth 2016 -2027 of 1. 55%, 1. 23%, and 0. 93% vs. 0. 80% in CEDU 2016 mid 140, 000 130, 000 120, 000 100, 000 90, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid 80, 000 CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid 70, 000 History 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 60, 000 1990 GWH 110, 000 21

California Energy Commission SCE: Baseline Peak End-Use Load Average growth 2017 -2027 of 1. 74%, 1. 39%, and 1. 01% vs. 0. 86% in CEDU 2016 mid 35, 000 30, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History MW 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 10, 000 22

California Energy Commission SCE: Consumption to Sales (Mid) ~18, 200 g. Wh of total self-generation in 2030, of which 12, 300 is PV 140, 000 130, 000 120, 000 Self-Generation 100, 000 Average annual growth in sales = 0. 63% 90, 000 Consumption 80, 000 Sales 70, 000 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 60, 000 2015 GWH 110, 000 23

California Energy Commission SCE: Impact of Peak Shift (Mid) ~800 MW increase in net peak by 2030 31, 000 29, 000 27, 000 23, 000 Peak Shift 21, 000 Average Annual Growth Adjusted Net Peak 2016 -2028 = 0. 55% 19, 000 Gross Generation at Peak End Use Load 17, 000 Unadjusted Net Peak 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2019 2018 2020 Adjusted Net Peak 15, 000 2017 MW 25, 000 24

California Energy Commission SCE Highlights (Output) • In mid case, residential consumption grows at 2. 04% per year, 2016 -2030, commercial by 1. 16%, industrial by 0. 41% • With less growth in commercial, SCE consumption grows slower than state average 2016 -2030 in mid case • Due to peak shift, net peak grows faster than sales 25

California Energy Commission SCE: Baseline and Managed Sales Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 13, 600 GWh reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 130, 000 120, 000 110, 000 GWh 100, 000 90, 000 80, 000 70, 000 60, 000 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mid Baseline Sales 2021 2022 2023 2024 Managed Sales Mid-Mid 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Managed Sales Mid-Low 26

California Energy Commission SCE: Baseline and Managed Peak Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 3, 800 MW reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 29, 000 27, 000 MW 25, 000 23, 000 21, 000 19, 000 17, 000 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mid Baseline Net Peak 2021 2022 2023 2024 Managed Net Peak Mid-Mid 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Managed Net Peak Mid-Low 27

California Energy Commission SDG&E 28

California Energy Commission SDG&E Highlights (Inputs) • Population growth of 0. 73% per year 2016 -2030, from 3. 6 million to 4. 0 million; growth in number of households of 0. 81 percent per year in mid case • Personal income growth of 2. 5% per year in mid case • 1, 250 GWh consumption from light-duty EVs on the road in 2030 in the mid case, of which 700 GWh is residential EV consumption • BTM PV installed capacity of 1, 800 MW in 2030 in mid case 29

California Energy Commission SDG&E: Baseline Consumption Average growth 2016 -2027 of 1. 65%, 1. 35%, and 1. 05% vs. 1. 21% in CEDU 2016 mid 28, 000 26, 000 24, 000 20, 000 18, 000 16, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid 14, 000 CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid 12, 000 History 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 10, 000 1990 GWH 22, 000 30

California Energy Commission SDG&E: Baseline Peak End-Use Load Average growth 2017 -2027 of 2. 18%, 1. 82%, and 1. 43% vs. 0. 96% in CEDU 2016 mid 6, 000 5, 500 5, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History 4, 000 3, 500 3, 000 2, 500 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 2, 000 1990 MW 4, 500 31

California Energy Commission SDG&E: Consumption to Sales (Mid) ~4, 300 g. Wh of total self-generation in 2030, of which 3, 200 is PV 27, 000 25, 000 23, 000 21, 000 19, 000 Average annual growth in sales = 0. 64% 17, 000 Consumption Sales 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 15, 000 2015 GWH Self-Generation 32

California Energy Commission SDGE: Impact of Peak Shift (Mid) ~360 MW increase in net peak by 2030 6, 000 5, 500 Average Annual Growth Net Peak 2017 -2030 =1. 00% 4, 500 Peak Shift 4, 000 Gross Generation at Peak End Use Load 3, 500 Unadjusted Net Peak 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2023 Adjusted Net Peak 3, 000 2017 MW 5, 000 33

California Energy Commission SDG&E Highlights (Output) • In mid case, residential consumption grows at 1. 76% per year, 2016 -2030, commercial by 1. 29%, industrial by -0. 03% • SDG&E consumption grows at around the same rate as the state average 2016 -2030 in the mid case • Due to peak shift, baseline net peak grows faster than sales 34

California Energy Commission SDG&E: Baseline and Managed Sales Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 3, 100 GWh reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 30, 000 28, 000 26, 000 24, 000 GWh 22, 000 20, 000 18, 000 16, 000 14, 000 12, 000 10, 000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mid Baseline Sales 2022 2023 2024 Managed Sales Mid-Mid 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Managed Sales Mid-Low 35

California Energy Commission SDG&E: Baseline and Managed Peak Traditional AAEE, additional SB 350 savings, and AAPV: 800 MW reduction down to mid-mid in 2030 6, 000 5, 500 5, 000 MW 4, 500 4, 000 3, 500 3, 000 2, 500 2, 000 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mid Baseline Net Peak 2021 2022 2023 2024 Managed Net Peak Mid-Mid 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Managed Net Peak Mid-Low 36

California Energy Commission SMUD 37

California Energy Commission SMUD Highlights (Inputs) • Population growth of 1. 14% per year 2016 -2030, from 1. 5 million to 1. 75 million; growth in number of households of 1. 08 percent per year in mid case • Personal income growth of 3. 1% per year in mid case • 660 GWh consumption from light-duty EVs on the road in 2030 in the mid case, of which 370 GWh is residential EV consumption • BTM PV installed capacity of 152 MW in 2030 in mid case 38

California Energy Commission SMUD: Consumption Average growth 2016 -2027 of 2. 09%, 1. 71%, and 1. 42% vs. 1. 36% in CEDU 2016 mid 15, 000 14, 000 13, 000 12, 000 10, 000 9, 000 8, 000 7, 000 CED 2017 Revised High CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History 6, 000 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 5, 000 1990 GWH 11, 000 39

California Energy Commission SMUD: Peak End-Use Load Average growth 2017 -2027 of 2. 11%, 1. 41%, and 1. 06% vs. 1. 31% in CEDU 2016 mid 4, 000 3, 500 CED 2017 Revised Mid CED 2017 Revised Low CEDU 2016 Mid History 3, 000 2, 500 2, 000 1, 500 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1, 000 1990 MW CED 2017 Revised High 40

California Energy Commission SMUD: Consumption to Sales (mid) ~625 g. Wh of total self-generation in 2030, of which 615 is PV 15, 000 14, 000 12, 000 Self-Generation 11, 000 10, 000 Average annual growth in sales = 1. 49% 9, 000 Consumption 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2025 Sales 8, 000 2015 GWH 13, 000 41

California Energy Commission SMUD: End Use Load to Net Peak (Mid) ~123 MW of total self-generation in 2030, of which 120 is PV 3, 900 3, 700 Peak End-Use Load Gross Generation Net Peak Self-Generation 3, 500 3, 300 MW Losses 3, 100 2, 900 Average Annual Growth Net Peak 2016 -2028 = 1. 14% 2, 700 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2, 500 42

California Energy Commission SMUD Highlights (Output) • In mid case, residential consumption grows at 1. 97% per year, 2016 -2030, commercial by 1. 73%, industrial by 0. 50% • Fueled by relatively strong commercial and industrial consumption growth, SMUD consumption grows much faster than state average 2016 -2030 • Relatively small impact from PV means sales grows almost as quickly as consumption 43

California Energy Commission Questions/Comments? 44