California Energy Commission Natural Gas Outlook IEPR Commissioner

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Outlook IEPR Commissioner Workshop on 2015 Natural Gas Outlook Report Monday, September 21, 2015 Anthony Dixon Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Outlook Report • Preview of major story line in the 2015 Natural Gas Outlook Report. • Available in next 2 to 4 weeks • Looking for stakeholder feedback 2

California Energy Commission All IEPR Natural Gas Cases Show Increasing Prices Henry Hub Blended Prices 8, 00 7, 00 6, 00 5, 00 4, 00 3, 00 2, 00 1, 00 0, 00 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 • Annual growth rates between 2018 and 2030 about 3. 9 percent 2030 prices between $4. 08 in the low case and $6. 87 in the high case (2014$ per thousand cubic feet) Price, 2014$ per Thousand Cubic Feet • High Demand Case Mid Demand Case Low Demand Case EIA (Historical) 3

California Energy Commission Single Year Prices May Range from $9. 50 to $2. 50 Mcf by 2030 4

California Energy Commission Prices at Malin and Topock Move with National Trends • • California pricing points parallel Henry Hub California’s gas sources are physically separated Topock – San Juan Basin Malin – Canadian and Rockies Basins 5

California Energy Commission California End-Use Natural Gas Demand Forecast Higher than 2013 Forecasts 6

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Resources and Infrastructure • California Legislature, CPUC, utilities working to construct new regulatory framework for pipeline safety • SB 705 (Leno, Chapter 522, Statutes of 2011) • SB 1371 (Leno, Chapter 525, Statutes of 2014) • CPUC Independent Review Panel 7

California Energy Commission Natural Gas Resources and Infrastructure • • • Possibility of LNG exports with expanding resources in U. S. DOE has approved 8 LNG liquefaction terminals All outside California 8

California Energy Commission California Storage lines up with the 5 Year Average for August 9

California Energy Commission Natural Gas for Power Generation is Declining across IEPR Cases 10

California Energy Commission Thank You 11