California Energy Commission Distributed Energy Resources in the
California Energy Commission Distributed Energy Resources in the CEC Demand Forecast February 10, 2017 Asish Gautam & Nick Fugate Energy Assessments Division 1
California Energy Commission Background • Forecast of end-user electricity consumption, sales, and peak demand by sector • Full forecast every IEPR year • Updated forecast in off-years – IEPR forecast is adjusted for latest consumption, peak, and weather data, economic projections, electricity rates and energy efficiency – Updates to DER projections where applicable 2
California Energy Commission Public Process In an IEPR year: • Data requested from LSEs (February-April) • Workshop – Preliminary results (Summer) • Workshop – Revised results (Fall) • Business meeting adoption (December) • Prior to workshops, results are shared with IOUs and stakeholder working group (DAWG) 3
California Energy Commission Forecast Geography: Forecast Zones 4
California Energy Commission Three Baseline Demand Cases • High Demand Case: Higher economic and demographic growth, higher climate change impacts, EV high case, lower electricity rates, less self-generation • Low Demand Case: Lower economic and demographic growth, no climate change impacts, EV low case, higher electricity rates, more selfgeneration • Mid Demand Case: Assumptions in between the high and low demand cases 5
California Energy Commission Electric Light-Duty Vehicles • Mid demand case consistent with latest CARB “most likely” compliance scenario • High case assumes faster decrease in EV prices vs. mid • Distributed to planning areas and climate zones through regression analysis 6
California Energy Commission Residential EVs 7
California Energy Commission Commercial EVs 8
California Energy Commission Demand Response • Forecast includes some “load-modifying” demand response (LMDR) – Non-event: Permanent Load Shifting, TOU – Event-based: Critical Peak Pricing, Peak-Time Rebates • Future forecasts may include more LMDR depending on CPUC decisions • Total impact of ~270 MW in 2026 9
California Energy Commission Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency (AAEE) • Based on CPUC Potential and Goals Study • Scenarios developed to be consistent with high, mid, or low baseline forecasts • Scenarios are vetted by stakeholders (DAWG) and adopted by the commission • Final planning scenarios are chosen with direction from the Joint Agency Steering Committee (JASC) and adopted by the Energy Commission 10
California Energy Commission AAEE 11
California Energy Commission Approach to Modeling Self-Generation • Underlying structure similar to payback/cash flow model used by NREL solar. DS model • Payback calculations based on system and maintenance costs, incentives, and fuel rates • Estimated payback applied to a Bass Diffusion adoption curve • Results for adoption differ by demand scenario since projected fuel rates and number of homes/floor space vary by scenario 12
California Energy Commission Self-Generation (Non-PV Forecast) • Assume no growth in large scale cogen • Small scale cogen (< 5 MW) system based on methodology based on ICF report – Focus on Commercial sector building types – Factors technology options and site thermal demand from CEUS survey – Bill savings based on retail tariffs, technology costs, rebates/incentives 13
California Energy Commission Self-Generation (non-PV) 14
California Energy Commission Self-Generation (PV Forecast) • PV cost data/trend from CPUC Net Metering Public Tool • Bill savings based on retail tariffs, system cost, O&M, rebates/tax credits • Focus on Residential (single family homes) and Commercial sector • RASS/CEUS profiles used for system sizing • Trend analysis for other sectors 15
California Energy Commission Self-Generation (PV Forecast) • PV installed costs vary by scenario – Low demand has greater cost reduction and High demand scenario has relatively lower cost reduction • Assumes Federal Tax credits expire after 2016 • Full retail credit for net exports in Low demand scenario and a NEM 2. 0 scenario in the High demand scenario ($0. 10/k. Wh plus $3/k. W installed capacity) 16
California Energy Commission Self-Generation (PV) 17
California Energy Commission Updates for 2017 IEPR • Adding usage categories for residential customers • Additional metrics for adoption modeling • Scenarios for zero net energy homes • TOU rates • Adding battery storage (standalone and paired with PV) 18
- Slides: 18