California Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency
California Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency California’s Low Carbon Fuel Policy Mary D. Nichols Chairman
California Climate Impacts Over the past 100 years 11°F 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ºF 1. 3ºF (0. 7°C) higher temperatures 7 inch sea level rise 12% decrease in fraction of runoff between April and July Snowmelt and spring blooms advanced 2 days/decade since 1955 4 -fold increase in wildfire frequency (over 34 years) Cal/EPA-OEHHA, “Environmental Protection Indicators for California” (2002), Westerling et al. , “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U. S. Forest Wildfire Activity”, Science (2006) 2
Sources of GHG Emissions in CA (1990) Others 50 (12%) (All values in MMTCO 2 Equivalent) Transportation 178 (41%) Electric Power 89 (21%) Industrial 79 (18%) Agriculture & Forestry 36 (8%) 3
Governor’s GHG Executive Order By 2010, reduce to 2000 GHG emission levels* By 2020, reduce to 1990 GHG emission levels** By 2050, reduce to 80% GHG below 1990 levels * Equals 59 million tons emission reductions, 11% below business as usual (BAU) ** Equals 174 million tons emission reductions, 29% below BAU 4
California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) • Charges ARB with monitoring and reducing GHG emissions • Directs ARB to develop a list of early action measures to reduce GHG emissions • Goal of reducing carbon emissions – to 1990 level by 2020 – to 80 % below 1990 level by 2050 • Mandatory cap begins in 2012 5
AB 32 Timeline 2007 Publish list of early actions 2008 Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline 2009 Publish scoping plan 2010 Adopt enforceable early action regulations 2011 GHG reduction measures adopted 2012 GHG reduction measures operative // 2020 Beyond Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels Continue to identify and implement further emission reduction strategies 6
Governor’s LCFS Executive Order • Issued January 2007 (EO S-01 -07) • Established statewide goal to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels • Established a low carbon fuel standard 7
Objectives of the LCFS • Achieve 10 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 • Help meet the GHG reduction goals of AB 32 • Reduce dependency on petroleum-based fuels • Diversify CA’s options for transportation fuels 8
LCFS Promotes Very Low Carbon Fuels • Ethanol: – Corn or sugar cane – Cellulosic materials with 45 times lower GHGs • Biodiesel • Renewable diesel • Electricity • Hydrogen • CNG, LPG • Advanced biofuels 9
LCFS Dependent on Market Mechanisms and Technology Innovations • Creates market for low carbon fuels • Creates stable investment environment • Expands alternative fuels market in CA by three to five times • Encourages technology innovation with lower carbon foot-print • Promotes alternative fuel and hybrid vehicles 10
Key Principles in the Design of LCFS • • • Governs intensity Measured on lifecycle basis Market-based Performance-based Fuel-neutral 11
Fuel Providers Have Flexible Compliance Options • Only produce fuels that meet the standard • Blend or sell a mix of higher and lower carbon fuels that on average meet the standard • Use previously banked credits • Purchase credits from other fuel providers who earned credits by exceeding the standard 12
Development of LCFS: UC Reports Part 1: Technical Analysis Focuses on the technical aspect of regulating the carbon intensity of transportation fuels Part 2: Policy Analysis Provides background and recommendations on important policy issues for LCFS implementation Farrell, A. Sperling, D. , et al “A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California” 13
Selected UC Recommendations • Carbon intensity must be measured on a lifecycle basis • LCFS applies to all gasoline and diesel used in CA used for transportation • Regulation should be imposed upon entities that produce or import transportations fuels sold in CA Source: Farrell, A. E. and Sperling, D. (2007) A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 2: Policy Analysis 14
UC Recommendations (con’t) • No limit on the ability of any legal entity to trade or bank LCFS credits • Protocol and certification methods need to be established 15
LCFS Timeline June 2007 Mid 2007 LCFS approved as an AB 32 early action measure UC completes technical and policy analytical reports Late 20072008 ARB conducts LCFS workshops Early 2008 Initiate draft regulatory language Fall 2008 Regulatory package completed End of 2008 LCFS regulation submitted to the Board for consideration 2009 Regulation submitted to Office of Administrative Law 20102020 Implementation 16
Issues Requiring International Resolution • Consistent verification process for establishing GHG potential of fuels • Develop robust lifecycle analysis – Land use change impacts – Sustainability – Co-products • Develop compliance models • Establish tracking mechanisms 17
Alternative Fuel Considerations • Move beyond fuel derived from food crops • Need biomass-derived fuels with low GHG potential • Address fuel distribution issues – Pipeline distribution and fungibility • May require 3 rd and 4 th generation biofuels 18
Long Term Transportation Goals Achieve GHG reductions in the transportation sector to achieve long term goals requires: – Use of low carbon fuels – Reduce growth in travel demand – Reduce GHG emissions from vehicles 19
Scenario to Achieve Long Term Goals To achieve 80% reduction in GHG by 2050 for the transportation sector: – 20% reduction in per capita VMT – 70 MPG real world fuel economy – 70% reduction in energy demand 20
Summary • LCFS needed to achieve GHG goals • California LCFS provides framework for transition to alternative fuels • Innovation is the key to advanced biofuels • Market mechanisms important to minimize costs • International harmonization critical • Long term transportation goals require: – Use of low carbon fuels – Reduction in travel demand – Improvement in vehicle/fuel system efficiencies 21
Thank You. www. arb. ca. gov The California Air Resources Board is a part of the California Environmental Protection Agency, an organization which reports directly to the Governor's Office in the Executive Branch of California State Government
- Slides: 22