CALFIRE North Network BY CDR Anton Orr USN

CALFIRE North Network BY: CDR Anton Orr (USN) Capt Ryan Colton (USMC) Capt Taylor Williams (USMC) NOV 2013

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Background • California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection • 2 regions North and South Region • 21 HQ units within all of CAL FIRE • 228 Fire Stations • Area of Responsibility • 31 million Acres • 35 counties • Budget • $1. 05 Billion • Fire Suppression costs ~ $165 Million • Average Yearly Responses • Wildland Fires – above 5, 600 • Non-Wildland Fire Emergencies – more than 350, 000 3

Background 4

Units Modeled • Calfire Northern Region – 21 Ground and Air Bases • Air Assets - # / operational cost per hour • Air Attack (OV-10 Bronco) : 6 / $1100 • Air Tanker (S-2 T): 10 / $2100 • Helicopter w/Fire Crew (UH-1 H) : 6 / $1750 5

Units Modeled • Ground Assets: # / operational cost per hour: • Engines: 190 / $80 • Fire Crews: 85 / $85 • Bull. Dozers: 32 / $100 6

Most Likely Fire Locations • F 1: Wildlake • F 2: Redding • F 3: Clearlake 7

Problem Statement Calfire has an expansive area of responsibility and a limited number of resources to deal with fires that arise within its AOR. What is the optimal way to utilize the resources that Calfire has, minimizing the operating costs and providing the service they are charged with delivering? 8

Road Node Map 9

Ground/Air Bases Map Ground Air 10

Complete Fire Map 11

Nodes and Edges • Nodes (64 total): • • Ground Nodes - Fire houses Air Nodes - Fire airports Transportation Nodes - Major intersections throughout Northern California Fire Nodes - 3 highly probable areas within Nor Cal that will have wildfires • Has 4 additional Fire locations within the model • Edges (321 total) • Air movement – Air Assets travel from Air Node direct to Fire Node • Ground movement: • Fire House Node -> Road Node (< 30 miles) • Road Node -> Road Node (transit network) • Road Node -> Fire Node (< 30 miles) 12

Abstract Network 13

Formulation • 14

Measures of Effectiveness • Primary – Cost to respond to fires • Secondary – Number of fires Northern CAL FIRE is able to deal with 15

Model • 16

Model • Capabilities – Each asset is assigned fire fighting capability based on utility they bring to fight fires (proxy is gallons of water): • • • Air Tanker: 1500 Air Assault: 100 Helo: 500 Crew: 10 Engine: 150 Dozer: 40 • Fire Demand: – Each Fire has certain amount of capability that needs to be satisfied (demand) • All of these are uniform R. V. between 2000 and 3000 units of capability 17

Model Output Optimization Model • What is Optimal mix of commodities to utilize and what is the min cost? 21

Analysis(Optimal Output) Optimal Commodity and locations for 1 Fire Air node = Grass Valley 1 Air Tanker Resilience Curve for Fire Costs 400 Fire Suppression Cost ($K) 350 300 250 200 Cost 150 100 50 0 0 1 Number of Fires 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 Number of Fires Cost ($K) $ 0 $ 42. 2 $ 96. 0 $ 147. 2 $ 193. 6 $ 239. 5 $ 296. 3 $ 361. 7 6 7 Ground Node = Nevada-Yuba Unit 4 crews 2 Dozers 4 Engines 8 Optimal Solution For 7 Fires: Total Air Assets: 1 Air Attack 7 Air Tankers 40 Crews 14 Dozers 40 Engines 22

Attacks Second Scenario • What happens when weather affects flights ops? – How is cost affected? – How is capability affected? 23

Analysis (Attack-No Air Avail) Resilience for Costs w/o Air Assets $400, 0 Fire Suppression Cost ($K) $350, 0 $300, 0 $250, 0 $200, 0 Cost w/o Air $150, 0 $100, 0 Optimal solution for 1 Fire: Air Node = NA Ground Node = Nevada Unit 14 Engines 2 Dozers 5 Crews Sonoma unit 9 Crews $50, 0 $0, 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Fires 6 Number of Fires 0 Cost $0. 0 w/o Air $0. 0 percentage 0 1 $42. 2 $47. 1 11. 5% 2 3 4 5 $96. 0 $147. 2 $193. 6 $239. 5 $105. 0 $157. 5 $205. 5 $253. 1 9. 4% 7. 0% 6. 2% 5. 7% 6 $296. 3 7 $361. 7 7 8 24

Attack - How many major wildfires can we fight? • Increase Attack Size • Increase R. V. for Fire Demand 25

Analysis (Attack- Increase Fire Demand) Optimal Solution for 1 Fire: Resilience Curve - Capability Provided/Req’d 1, 20 Demand: 10858 units Supplied: 12000 units Proportion of Capability 1, 00 0, 80 0, 60 proportion Optimal Solution for 4 Fires: 0, 40 Demand: 49332 units Supplied: 30430 units 0, 20 0, 00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Fires 6 7 8 How many more assets do I need to contain 4 Major Wildfires up to 100% - 5 AT - 5 HC - 50 Crews, Dozers, Engines 26

Follow on Work • Utility of assets incorporated into MOEs • Improve granularity of assets/transit edges – Add additional fire fighting units • Restrictions on mobility of air assets • Incorporate Southern Region and Reserves – If north is exhausted how can Southern region affect the fight? 27

Just to Remember 28

QUESTIONS? 29

Sources • http: //firefighterblog. com/files/2010/07/CAL_FIRE_logo_large. jpg • http: //news. nationalgeographic. com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605 -powerhousewildfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhousefirefighters_68142_600 x 450. jpg • http: //www. theepochtimes. com/news_images/highres/2008 -7 -5 california_fires_81828250. jpg ( question photo) • http: //www. sacbee. com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098. html (intro photo) 30