Cal Water 2015 Weather Forecast Briefing Tue 27

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Daily Weather Forecast Briefing Tuesday 27 Jan 2015

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Date Executive Summary Tue 1/27– Wed 1/28 Thu 1/29 • Marginal AR conditions over East Pacific Fri 1/30 • AR strengthens, north/south orientation Sat 1/31 • AR moves northeast toward British Columbia • AR conditions in East Pacific (~250 km/m/s) • AR weakens as it moves south into Oregon and Washington Long-Range • Increased probability for CA landfalling AR activity • GFS and ECMWF zonal day+10 across the west and central Pacific, ridging over CA Sun 2/1

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Tue Wed Thurs Fri Sat Sun 27 January – 1 February 2015 AR conditions expected offshore Wed Fri e Tu s T r hu t Sa n Su ~2. 5 -h G-IV Ferry Dissipating

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+9 h 0700 PST Monday 26 January 2015 L H IWV | SLP | 850 -h. Pa Wind IVT | IVT Vectors “Current Conditions”

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 High and level cloud tops around the Gulf of Alaska low with and lower level clouds ahead of the cold front GOES West Infrared Enhanced Satellite http: //vortex. plymouth. edu/mapwall/goes. Wirl. 24. png Mid level clouds with weak low pressure over CA

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Upper-tropospheric water vapor associated with the Gulf of Alaska low Little upper level moisture associated with the weak UL low GOES West Water Vapor Imagery http: //vortex. plymouth. edu/mapwall/goes. Wwvc. 24. png

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 NOAA ESRL PSD SSM/I Water Vapor:

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 MCC Forecast from NWS • Tuesday – Isolated showers, partly sunny, high near 61 F. Calm winds becoming SE winds around 5 -7 kts. – Mostly cloudy later tonight, no fog issues for P 3 landing. • Wednesday – Mostly sunny, high near 60 F, with a northwest wind around 2 -7 kts. • Thursday – Mostly sunny, high near 60 F. Calm winds becoming NW around 4 kts. • Friday – Sunny with a high near 61 F.

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+18 h 1600 PST Tuesday 27 January 2015 L H H Key: • High pressure, weaker winds over Eastern Pacific

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+42 h 1600 PST Wednesday 28 January 2015 L H H Key: • Minimal AR conditions over East Pacific

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+66 h 1600 PST Thursday 29 January 2015 L H Key: • AR conditions approaching G-IV flight range

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+114 h 1600 PST Friday 30 January 2015 L H Key: • AR core approaching G-IV range

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 0600 UTC GFS F+114 h 1600 PST Saturday 31 January 2015 L L H Key: • AR weakening as it moves east toward the British Columbia Coast

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 00 Z/31 Jan| 1600 PST Saturday • Dprog/Dt between Monday/Tuesday initializations • Midlatitude cyclone closer to Aleutians • Decreased IWV 06 Z Initialization on Tue 1/26/15 Current run 06 Z Initialization Mon 1/26/15 Yesterday’s run

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 00 Z/31 Jan | 1600 PST Saturday • Dprog/Dt between Monday/Tuesday initializations • 00 ZWeaker values Initialization. IVT on Tue 1/27/15 00 Z Initialization on Mon 1/26/15 Current run Yesterday’s run

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 “Landfall Probability” IVT >250 kg/m/s along coast 00 Z Mon 2/09 12 Z Fri 2/06 00 Z Sun 2/01 • Sunday (2/01): Increased probabilities after the 1 st of February, then fall off until the next weekend. • Friday (2/06): The next weekend also shows increased probabilities. • Monday (2/09): Greatest probabilities for Washington, Oregon, and N. California

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 IVT Probability | Thumbnails | 1600 & 2200 Thurs 05 Feb • Increased AR probabilities around RHB location and west coast in ensemble forecast

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 IVT Probability | Thumbnails | 1600 Sunday 08 Feb • Control IVT vectors indicating landfalling AR along west coast • Little agreement between the ensemble members in strength and location

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Palmdale Forecast from NWS • Tuesday: – Mostly sunny with a high near 58. Chance of showers 20% before 10 am. • Wednesday: – Mostly sunny with a high near 61. Winds becoming northeast. Gusts could reach 15 mph. • Thursday/Friday: – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers. Highs around 60. • Saturday: – Sunny. High near 62.

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 1000 PST Tuesday | Sim. IR 1000 PST Wednesday NAM 4 -km Simulated IR Brightness Temperature | 06 Z 27 Jan 2015 • Tuesday: Mid to high level clouds push north through CA. • Wednesday: New cloud deck moves in from the southwest. • Thursday: Thick clouds traverse southern half of CA. 1000 PST Thursday

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 IR Imagery – 0430 PST

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Onshore Cloud Forecast | Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 • • 06 Z Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 GFS initialization Fresno, CA Moist below 20, 000 ft; drying through the day TAFs indicate overcast breaking by early afternoon; replaced by broken deck • Sierras still favorable, especially north of Fresno 1000 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 1300 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 1600 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 20, 000 ft

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 NAM Cross-Sections (Cross-Mountain Tuesday)

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1000 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1300 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1600 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Offshore Cloud Forecast | Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 • • 06 Z Tues 27 Jan 2015 NAM initialization RHB: 38 N, 127 W Mid and high level clouds extend down to ~12, 000 ft by mid afternoon PBL near saturation 1000 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 1300 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 14, 000 ft 12, 000 ft 1600 PST

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 GFS Cross-Sections (RHB-Tuesday)

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1300 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft NORTH SOUTH

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1600 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft NORTH SOUTH

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1300 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft WEST EAST

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1600 PST Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft WEST EAST

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 NAM Cross-Sections (BBY near shore – Wed/Fri)

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1300 PST Wednesday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1600 PST Wednesday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1300 PST Friday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1600 PST Friday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 NAM Cross-Sections (BBY near shore – Wed/Fri)

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1300 PST Wednesday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) NAM Valid 1600 PST Wednesday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1300 PST Friday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY

Cal. Water 2015 - Weather Forecast Briefing | Tue 27 Jan 2015 Temperature (contours), Relative Humidity (Shaded), and Wind (barbs) GFS Valid 1600 PST Friday 28 Jan 2015 20, 000 ft 10, 000 ft BBY