By Randy from Newbury Park CA Climate Change

By Randy from Newbury Park, CA Climate Change & Migratory Behavior What does climate change mean for the Monarch? Photo by V. Kornieyenko Photo by O. Morisset Photo by Agunther

Opening Discussion • The world is warming. • How do we know? • What has caused warming?

Temperature Change • Map of temperature anomalies • Temperature change over time • Main page: http: //svs. gsfc. nasa. gov/vis/a 03000 0/a 030400/a 030477/ Source: GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio

Plotted Graphically… Graph from Goddard Institute for Space Studies http: //data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/graphs_v 3/

Why warming? • Why is the planet warming in the first place? What do you know about this? • Mechanism: Greenhouse effect • What’s a greenhouse gas? • Can we really change the composition of the atmosphere?

The Warming Relationship • Increased greenhouse gas content • Heat takes longer to escape Earth • The atmosphere gets warmer, overall … but warming is uneven and produces different local climatic effects

What about organisms? Do butterflies live in a global average temperature?

Direct Impacts of Warming • Less sea ice • Melting of glaciers and ice sheets • Thawing of permafrost 2005 Source: GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio

Feedbacks – the system isn’t simple • Positive (accelerating) feedback: As temperature increases, changes take place that further increase temperature • Loss of sea ice • Melting of permafrost • Loss of vegetation • Negative (equilibrating) feedback: As temperature increases, changes take place that offset the increase in temperature • More cloud cover • Increase in vegetation • Positive feedbacks dominate at present • Generally speaking, some warming produces further warming

Indirect Effects of Warming • Changes in mid-latitude weather patterns • Due to loss of sea ice • Sea level rise • Melting of glaciers and ice sheets • Changes in ocean circulation • Low-density meltwater from ice sheets • Methane release • Thawing of permafrost • Ecological changes • Changes in geographic ranges of animals and plants

Climate Projections IPCC Temperature Projections What’s going on here? Why is this diagram complex? Uncertainty within single models Gray shaded areas show range of results using different models. IPCC Figure SPM. 5. – 4 th assessment report (2007) Different projections for future greenhouse gas levels

Climate Projections IPCC Temperature Projections How is this one different? Range of results using different models. IPCC Figure SPM. 5. – 5 th assessment report (2013) Different projections for future greenhouse gas levels

What Matters to Monarchs? • What do you know about the Monarch life cycle and ecology? • Talk with each other and write down a few things • What climate-related factors might be important to monarchs? • Brainstorm for a couple minutes and write down a few things

Climate Departure • As temperatures rise in an area, they will eventually rise so that they’re above anything that area had previously experienced àThe coldest year in the future will be warmer than the warmest year in the past. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers, Ltd: Nature 502, 183 -187 (10 October 2013)

Climate Departure • Is this a useful way to think about climate-biology relationships? • Brainstorm a few minutes – why might it be useful or not?

What does the model predict? Projected timing of annual departure (annual means exceed historical bounds) What patterns do you observe? What might this mean for migratory animals? Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers, Ltd: Nature 502, 183 -187 (10 October 2013) Based on RCP 8. 5 – increasing CO 2 emission model

What do you think? • What features of the monarchs’ ecology make them resilient to future climate changes? • What features of the monarchs’ ecology make them vulnerable? • Brainstorm for a couple minutes and write down a few things • In what ways can the vulnerability be addressed? • What do we need to know about climate? • What do we need to know about monarchs?