BUS RAPID TRANSIT AS A CATALYST FOR LAND
BUS RAPID TRANSIT AS A CATALYST FOR LAND USE CHANGE: THE ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR CASE STUDY 11 th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2007 Matthew Hardy, Lead Transportation Engineer Donald Roberts, Senior Principal Manager © 2007 Noblis, Inc.
Overview • • • Background Literature Review Research Question and Hypothesis Methodology and Analysis Hypothesis Testing Conclusion 2
Background • 2005 BRAC Recommendations: – Consolidate 21, 000 government employees from Crystal City to Ft. Belvoir • Transportation infrastructure consists of 4 -lane Route 1 – Limited bus service, no rail service • Current transportation planning not focused on Route 1 Corridor • This research provides first systematic evaluation of transit aspects for Route 1 Corridor 3
The Route 1 Corridor Crystal City Rt. 1 Corridor Ft. Belvoir 4
Crystal City 5
Ft. Belvoir 6
Literature Review 1) BRAC Impacts 2) Transportation & Land Use 3) Bus Rapid Transit 7
BRAC Impacts • 2005 BRAC recommendation unique for the National Capital Region – Calls for major intra-region consolidation – 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995 recommendations focused on inter-region consolidation • Wash. COG BRAC Impact Analysis – Limited impact on the region – Possible localized impact (Arlington/Fairfax County) 8
Transportation & Land Use • Role of Government –Insure mixed-use components? –Free market activities? –Economic Realities? • Transit and Land Use –Focus on Rail. Why? “increasingly en vogue with policy-makers, the media and researchers due to nostalgia, potential environmental efficiency, ease of provision of high frequency service and attractiveness of guaranteed service” 9
Bus Rapid Transit • Characteristics of Bus Rapid Transit (CBRT) Major Elements of BRT Right-of-Way Stations Vehicles Fare Collection Intelligent Transportation Systems Service and Operations Plan System Performance Travel Time Savings Reliability Safety & Security Capacity Identity and Image System Benefits Ridership Transit – Supportive Land Development Capital Cost Effectiveness Operating Efficiency Environmental Quality Land Development • ITS & BRT Assessment Tool – Developed by Noblis – Sketch planning tool that “automates” CBRT 10
Research Statements 11
Research Questions • • Can a transit system be implemented in the Route 1 Corridor that provides high-quality service as defined in the literature review? Can a transit service be constructed such that the opportunity cost associated with it does not preclude other corridors from receiving transit service? Will or can a bus-based transit service foster land use change? What type of transit system can be operational by 2011? 12
Hypothesis BRT systems provide high-quality transit service in terms of travel time and system capacity, reduce opportunity costs over other transportation options (thus enable funding for additional transit service in other corridors in the application region), and act as a catalyst for land use change. 13
Methodology 1) Comparable BRT and LRT Systems 2) ITS & BRT Assessment Tool 14
Comparable BRT and LRT Systems • • • Silver Line: Boston, MA MAX: Las Vegas, NV San Pablo RAPID: Oakland, CA Brisbane South East Busway: Brisbane, Australia Trans. Millenio: Bogota, Columbia LRT: Developed from Comparison of Bus Rapid Transit & Light Rail Transit Characteristics 15
Transit Modeling Spectrum ITS & BRT Assessment Tool TLOS Trans. CAD TCQOS ITSUP Simple Complex Benefitcost Analysis Smart. BRT FTIS CBRT 4 -Step Process VISSIM STEAM SPASM IDAS Paramics SCRITS Limited, Rough Estimation, Short Run Times, Limited Training, Lower Set-Up Costs, Quicker Development Comprehensive, Precise Calculation, Longer Run Times, Training Required, Higher Set-Up Costs, Longer Development 16
Role of CBRT and IBAT CBRT Systems/Sketch Planning Supported by IBAT Alternatives Alternative Analysis Number of Alternatives Preliminary Engineering Final Design and Construction Level of Detail 17
ITS & BRT Assessment Tool Inputs § Running Way § Fare Collection § Station Design § Vehicle Characteristics § Marketing/Image § Service Plan § Legacy ITS § Network/Corridor Characteristics of BRT TCRP A-23 a Analysis ITS Decision Tree (Hierarchy) ITS Refinement Network/Corridor Analysis Algorithm System Performance Measures Outputs § Packages of ITS § Min, Avg, Max § Costs § Benefits § ROI § Impact Measures ITS Impact Algorithm ITS Enhanced BRT Characteristics of BRT Impact Database 18
Analysis 1) System Performance Measures 2) Opportunity Costs 3) Land Use Impact 19
System Evaluation Table 20
System Performance Measures • Average Operating Speeds – BRT: 8 to 15 mph – LRT: 12 mph – Route 1 BRT: 12. 7 mph • System Capacity – BRT: 1440 pphpd (U. S. ) and 41, 000 pphpd (Bogota) – LRT: 9600 pphpd – Route 1 BRT: 5400 pphpd System capacity is not a limiting factor for BRT given the estimated passenger demand. 21
Opportunity Costs • Capital Costs – BRT: $230 k to $16, 600 k per mile – LRT: $50, 000 k per mile – Route 1 BRT: $10, 600 k per mile • Operating Costs – No comparable BRT/LRT figures – Operating costs for bus systems (not BRT) are 1/3 to 1/2 those of LRT 22
Land Use Impacts • Quantifiable data difficult to obtain • No formal land use impact evaluation of U. S. BRT system – Boston Silver Line ex post assessment real estate data suggest $1. 22 billion in real estate investment • International Data – Brisbane: 20% increase in land values within 6 miles of BRT station (2 to 3 times higher rate than elsewhere) – Trans. Millenio purpose centered around land use changes 23
Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Support Evidence 1. BRT systems provide highquality transit service. Strong Five BRT systems had similar average operating speeds as compared to LRT service. 2. BRT systems reduce opportunity costs. Strong Evidence suggests that the opportunity cost of BRT (measured in terms of capital and operating costs) is strong. However, limited data regarding operating costs. 3. BRT systems act as a catalyst for land use change. Weak Limited data specific to U. S. BRT systems. 24
Conclusions 25
Route 1 BRT Analysis • There is strong evidence that BRT is a viable transit option for the Route 1 Corridor – Faster development cycle, innovative operating characteristics, lower opportunity costs – IBAT tool sufficient to model BRT for sketch planning purposes • Policy Implications – BRT versus LRT Opportunity Costs – BRT Service Flexibility – Financing Transit • Future Research – Development of evaluation model for U. S. BRT deployments – BRT and land use connection 26
Thank You. Matt Hardy Don Roberts Lead Transportation Engineer (202) 863 -2982 matthew. hardy@noblis. org Senior Principal Manager (202) 863 -2976 dlrobert@noblis. org 27
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