Bursting the Smart Growth Bubble Ed Braddy Double

Bursting the Smart Growth Bubble Ed Braddy Double. Tree Resort – Orlando, Florida September 25, 2010

Gainesville City Commission Author of “Everything I need to know I learned at an ADC conference”

Extremely Persuasive Wake Up!

Two Terms 2002 -2008 UF National Championships Football 2006, 2008 Basketball 2006, 2007

Smart Growth Bubble

Could Get Messy

Consequences of Failure

The Appeal of Smart Growth “In general, smart growth invests time, attention, and resources in restoring community and vitality to city centers and older suburbs. ” (Why Smart Growth: A Primer) ----------------------------- • Increased Densities • Mixed Uses & Compact Development • Pedestrian & Transit Orientation • Open Spaces & Urban Infill

Justification for Smart Growth • • • Concerns about growth & change Desire for order & reliability Order + Reliability = Security Growth management as framework Smart Growth is a doctrine

Smart Growth Sells Rhetorical Appeal Catchy Slogans Nostalgic Return Element of Fear Heroic Purpose

“Study calls Maryland smart growth a flop” • “An innovative policy to fight suburban sprawl catapulted Maryland into the national spotlight a decade ago. ” • “Scholars at the National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education found that over a decade, smart growth has not made a dent in Maryland's war on sprawl. ” Washington Post, Nov. 2, 2009

Smart Growth Promises Congestion Relief • Paris, France • Light Rail-T 3 Bus Subway Walk Car 50% 33% 9% 2. 7% • Avg trip length per car has increased 4 km • Congestion worsened • Carbon emissions increased by 3, 115 tons (Source: Objectif Liberté, Vincent Benard)

Heavy on the Regs The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index • Local Political Pressure • State Political Involvement • Local Zoning & Project Approval • Supply & Land Assembly • Other regulations like Open Space #15 – Florida (Source: University of Pennsylvania) Other Notables #1 Hawaii #3 Massachusetts #6 Maryland #7 Washington #9 California ----------#29 Ohio #30 Texas #45 Indiana #50 Kansas

Bursting the Bubble

Smart Growth Promises Affordability Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics, 2008 Thomas Sowell University Stanford • “And if people think that • “Are you for ‘open space’ prices will continue to rise, laws but also for ‘affordable they become willing to housing’? Don't be spend even more, driving discouraged by the fact that prices still higher, and so severe building on. In other words, the restrictions have sent Zoned Zone is prone to housing prices skyhousing bubbles. ” rocketing in community after community. ” – New York Times, 2005

Affordable Smart Growth

Mc. Urbanism – Tastes the Same Everywhere!

Sincere Intentions • “The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachments by men of zeal, wellmeaning but without understanding. ” Justice Louis Brandeis

What is Good is Bad • Debate Grows on Aspirin for Heart Risk • “a new analysis suggests that aspirin's risks may outweigh it benefits in this population. ” – Source: Web. MD. com & Yorkshire Post, UK

Transit Oriented Developments San Francisco • “In San Francisco, Transit Oriented Development is a Green bait and switch designed to promote developer profits while exacerbating the very conditions which lead to increased emissions, climate change, congestion and slower, less reliable surface transit. ” Source: Fog City Journal Mar 4, 2010

Transit Oriented Development Portland, Oregon “Assessing the Social and Environmental Achievements of New Urbanism: Evidence from Portland, Oregon” • “Orenco Station, the award winning neighborhood touted as an ideal of mass-transit oriented New Urbanism, has failed to persuade a majority of its residents to use mass transit to get to work. ” Lewis and Clark College July 15, 2009

What is Bad is Good • Coffee: The New Health Food? • “Coffee, the much maligned but undoubtedly beloved beverage, just made headlines for possibly cutting the risk of the latest disease epidemic, type 2 diabetes. And the real news seems to be that the more you drink, the better. ” – Sources: Web. MD. com & Harvard Health Publications

“Evidence to the Contrary” Australian Conservation Foundation & Residential Development Council October 2007 • “GHG emission estimates from the recently published Australian Conservation Foundation Consumption Atlas, indicate virtually the opposite of the generally held perceptions. ”

Housing Form in Australia & Its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions • “The data shows that lower density areas, which rely more on automobiles, tend to produce less in GHG emissions than the high density, more public transport dependent areas that are favored by urban consolidation policies. ”

Hostility to Our Preferred Lifestyle Dom Nozzi James Kunstler • “These days, an awful lot of people — the production builders, the realtors — are • “The car is the waiting for the ‘bottom’ in the enemy of the city” real-estate industry with hopes – Gainesville Sun, May 18, that the suburban house-building 2008 orgy will resume. They are waiting in vain. The project of suburbia is over. We will build no more of it. ” Senior Planner, City of Gainesville (retired) – New York Times, Aug 12, 2008

H. L. Mencken (1880 -1956) “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. ”

Menacing Hobgoblins Suburban Development Sprawl

50 Year Planning

Beware of Hobgoblins Sprawl Element of Fear

Unless They Are Exaggerating Source: U. S. Geological Survey

Inconvenient Truths • “All urbanized areas of 2, 500 people or more occupy just 2. 6 percent of the United States. ” – U. S. Census Bureau • “If every family in the U. S. built a home on a ¼ acre lot, they could all fit comfortably in Ohio. ” – Randal O’Toole, Cato Institue Source: U. S. Geological Survey

Cruel Truths • Transit is fiscally unsustainable • Public transit is dependent on the automobile • 2008 -2009, Americans drove 11 billion fewer miles • 2009 -2010, transit agencies enact massive cuts • Smart Growth will kill transit Sound Transit

Copenhagen, Denmark Compact Development “Almost everyone here seems to walk, bike and use the metro. ” Pegeen Hanrahan Gainesville Mayor Pedestrian Friendly

Viking Smart Growth Chaos & Plunder Livability Charrette

Two Visions European Pattern of Development Good American Pattern of Development Bad

Suburban Copenhagen Vestegnen, Denmark

Transportation Mode Shares United States Source: National Transportation Statistics European Union Source: Panorama of Transport

Strategic Diminishment • Consciously pursuing a future that is less than our current state • Reducing Vehicle Miles Travelled • Smart Growth promotes mass transit as superior alternative to automobile • “Transportation choice” means diminished opportunities or smaller, crowded living

Strategic Diminishment – Defining Down Our Quality of Life

Threat to Property Rights “There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual & silent encroachments of those in power than by violent & sudden usurpations. ” James Madison

Parris N. Glendening • "The incentives are not strong enough, … but property rights are a heated issue. I don't believe the political realities allow you to go to a [stronger] system. “ – Washington Post, November 2, 2009

“Anti-Sprawl Laws, Property Rights Collide in Oregon” • “The nation's strongest laws against sprawl are beginning to buckle here in Oregon under pressure from an even stronger, voter-approved law that trumps growth restrictions with property rights. ” • “Measure 37 is starting to unravel smartgrowth laws that have defined living patterns. ” Washington Post, February 28, 2005

John Adams • "The moment the idea is admitted into society that property is not as sacred as the law of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence. "

Justification for Smart Growth • • • Concerns about growth & change Desire for order & reliability Order + Reliability = Security Growth management as framework Smart Growth is a doctrine

A Culture of Property Rights • Voluntary Transaction • Reliability • Order Houston, TX

A Culture of Planning • 3 rd Party Interference • Arbitrariness • Corruption • Disorder • Unreliable • Insecurity Portland, OR

Another Contrast • A Culture of Planning – Manipulation – Arrogance • A Culture of Property Rights – Merit – Integrity – Humility

Window of Policy Potential Today Mandates Markets

Window of Policy Potential Today Mandates Markets U G L Y B A D G O O D

Window of Policy Potential Today Mandates Tomorrow Markets

Window of Policy Potential Today Tomorrow Mandates Markets G O O D B E T T E R Y I P P E E

…the set of values, assumptions, and practices associated with a particular field, activity – i. e. , the culture Planning Culture Prescriptive Mandates Heavily Regulated Centralized Decision-making Assumption: You can’t be trusted to do the right thing Property Rights Culture Responsive Markets Lightly Regulated Decentralized Decision-making Assumption: You can be trusted to do the right thing

…the set of values, assumptions, and practices associated with a particular field, activity – i. e. , the culture Planning Culture Prescriptive Mandates Heavily Regulated Centralized Decision-making Assumption: You can’t be trusted to do the right thing Property Rights Culture Responsive Markets Lightly Regulated Decentralized Decision-making Assumption: You can be trusted to do the right thing

…the set of values, assumptions, and practices associated with a particular field, activity – i. e. , the culture Planning Culture Prescriptive Mandates Heavily Regulated Centralized Decision-making Assumption: You can’t be trusted to do the right thing Property Rights Culture Responsive Markets Lightly Regulated Decentralized Decision-making Assumption: You can be trusted to do the right thing Doesn’t matter … for third parties

Mission of the ADC Today Planning Culture Tomorrow Property Rights Culture To move the window of policy potential

American Dream Coalition • The ADC bridges the gap between scholarly research, elected officials, community leaders & grassroots activists. • Freedom in how people use their land in what mode of transportation they choose. • The ADC opposes coercive planning & command-control government at all levels. • Our goal is to move the window of opportunity for market-friendly public policy.

Stay in Touch! • Website: americandreamcoalition. org • ADC Blog: www. adcblog. org/blog/ • Email: ed@americandreamcoalition. org • Sign Up: ADC Communicator – the most comprehensive digest of related news & opinion