Building Resilience to Disasters in Western Balkans and

Building Resilience to Disasters in Western Balkans and Turkey Task 6: Kick-off meeting Skopje, 29 -30 May 2013 D. Ivanov, WMO Regional Office for Europe

Focus on SE Europe WMO implemented, in collaboration with UNDP and other partners, the Action: “Regional cooperation in SEE for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction” during the period April 2009 – October 2011. (IPA/2009/199 -922) All materials available on: http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/d rr/projects/SEE_en. html

The new Project – WMO Focus areas Enhance the regional risk assessment and mapping capacities through improved capacity of beneficiaries in hazard analysis and mapping Enhance IPA beneficiaries’ capacity to forecast hazardous meteorological and hydrological phenomena and deliver timely warnings to support DRR Develop capacity needed to support climate risk management and climate change adaptation into a national and regional DRR agenda Design a regional Multi-Hazard Early Warning System composed of harmonized national Early Warning Systems within a regional cooperation framework

IPA 2012 Project – Work Packages (WMO) Data for risk analysis • Hazard analysis and mapping • Cross-border Exchange • CDMS • Pilot project – Sava River Basin (with ISRC) Improved Products in support of DRR • • Forecasts Warnings “Nowcasting” Floods and drought products Climate change Institutional DRR issues • Long-range forecasts • Seasonal climate outlooks • New services (e. g. , insurance) • EWS Design • Quality Management • Regional Harmonization • Infrastructure

How to improve our warning services q Warnings are requisite services for any NMHS: WMO Convention (preamble): the mission of NMHSs is to provide services in support of: A) Protection of life and property q The Mission statement of any NMHS should include this requisite service q Historically, the first meteorological forecasts were of warning type – Admiral Fitzroy in the 1860 s tried to issue warnings for shipping to prevent damage caused by storms q Warning type of service has been developed for different users, e. g. , aviation, where SIGMET is “warning for hazardous en-route conditions”; agriculture – frost warnings, etc; building construction – wind; etc.

How to improve our warning services q The main type of warning service is related to disaster risk reduction (DRR) q Some inherent characteristics of hydrometeorological warnings and how to measure performance: Ø Essentially, the warning information for DRR is a forecast or a “nowcast” (we make it possible to be “early”) Ø It deals with rare events, or high impact events, or weather extremes Ø Hydrometeorological warning information is provided as an input to the Early Warning System; it triggers a decision-making process, which involves different “actors” Ø The quality of this “input” is essential for the effectiveness and efficiency of the life- and property-saving action and is directly related to the total loss reduction or risk reduction

Simplified (static) model Warning YES NO YES Hit (occur. ) Miss NO False Alarm Hit (non-occur. ) Obs

Simplified (static) model - effects Life saving Hit (occ. ) +++ Econ. losses ++ Credibility +++ Visibility +++ Cost/ benefit note +++ High impact events – high public attention Hit (nonocc. ) 0 0 + 0 0 May create wrong judgment on overall quality Miss --- --- --- Worst case; High liability -- Bad case; Some liability False alarm 0 0 --- --

Simplified (static) model With regard to warning product, the ultimate goal for the NMHS should be: • Maximize the Hits • Minimize the Misses • Reduce the False Alarms as much as possible (even though, a tendency for “overforecasting” exists) • Evaluate performance with account of impact

Simple Dynamic model The uncertainty is function of time – when we come closer to the occurrence of a severe event, uncertainty is reduced (e. g. , tornado warnings in US) The system should allow for quick assimilation of new information and issuance of updates/amendments E. g. , in aviation a wrong forecast is not penalized if an amended forecast is issued on time Thus, the performance can be improved with a continues data assimilation and forecasting process with information from different sources Adaptive decision-making process

Complex model The user comes into the system The ultimate goal becomes not our own performance but the decision -making process and related action The concept of value chain (Adriaan Perrels, RA VI TT on SEB) The potential value of weather/warning information service is filtered through several steps: • • attained accuracy customer/user orientation access to information comprehension of the information ability to respond timely and effectively actual effectiveness of respond action cost/benefit of response

Complex model – other considerations • Quality Assurance • Liability • Competition • Funding opportunities • Regionalism

Complex model – other considerations • Quality Assurance/Management WMO has developed a Quality Management Framework (QMF) as part of the Technical Regulations Aviation service providers have a mandatory requirement for a QMS; it is recommended to implement ISO 9000 set of standards (currently ISO 9001: 2008) QMS in aviation is part of a broader Safety Management System (ICAO) QMS is strongly recommended for any service with inherent liabilities QMS ensures clear, optimized and standardized processes and procedures (minimizes “improvisation”) QMS ensures customer focus, continues improvement, performance-based evaluation

Complex model – other considerations • Quality Assurance/Management • Hypothetical case: Two forecasters Ivan and Milan – slightly different level of experience and skill (Ivan > Milan) The attained level of performance of the forecasting system is 87% Ivan adds value of 3%; Milan maintains the attained performance of 87% QMS should ensure that: 1) the attained performance is sustainable; 2) the added value of Ivan is studied and considered in the continues improvement process

Complex model – other considerations • Quality Assurance/Management • RA VI Study 2013: QMS for aviation is implemented in more than 90% of RA VI Members Almost 50% of Members achieved QMS ISO certification for the NMHS as a whole, including some IPA beneficiaries – Turkey, Serbia; Croatia is close to certification The 16 th Session of RA VI (September 2013) may recommend more “aggressive” QMS by NMHSs in all areas or service, in particular, services for DRR (to become a WMO regulatory requirement) IPA Project QMS training – 8 -10 July 2013, Zagreb

Complex model – other considerations • Liability Can a forecaster or a NMHS be sued for wrong information? Who is accountable for the “Misses” and “False alarms”, knowing that the warning products are science based with inherent uncertainties These are still “gray areas” However, there have been cases of legal actions against “negligence” – non provision of information which was possible to provide Insurance towards such liabilities is important Very important – inform authorities of your current capabilities – system-wise

Complex model – other considerations • Competition WMO has the position for NMHS as “single authoritative voice” for warning information However, such “monopoly” situation is not favored by EU More and more, services are open to competition; EU data policy allows engagement of private service providers; technology is available Nevertheless, NMHSs should strive to keep the position of “authority”; to be defended through quality and excellence, as well as support from other DRR stakeholders

Complex model – other considerations • Competition and funding opportunities Other type of competition is for public funding In the heavy economic situation most of the W Balkan countries are, NMHSs are in competition for public funding with other crucial sectors – health, education, security, etc. The case of NMHSs should be defended through demonstration of socio-economic benefits, building partnerships, visibility, relevance to development agenda The need for sustaining and modernizing infrastructure, information technology, human resources need to be continuously demonstrated and advocated Pro-active management approach is vital!

Complex model – other considerations • Competition and funding opportunities Most of the successful large-scale modernization projects in the region have been through external funding: Albania and Moldova – World Bank; Slovenia – EU cohesion funds Smaller scale projects have been funded by USAID, GIZ Preparation of acceptable project proposals and finding the appropriate external funding mechanisms with governement support is vital

Complex model – other considerations • Regionalism SEEDRMAP and IPA Phase One project strongly recommended regional approach to DRR The exact modalities and practical solutions of such regional approach are yet to be determined and developed Extended regionalism becomes a common tendency; EU is strongly behind such approach as a cost-effective solution to common problems (e. g. , MIC, EFAS, Copernicus) Technology to support regional service provision exists Political will and institutional framework need to be built

THANK YOU!