Building a Prosperous Powerful Intellectual and Ethical India
Building a Prosperous, Powerful Intellectual and Ethical India to be a Jagadguru Once Again By Dr T. H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India ) Former: Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited & Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh T: +91(40) 6667 -1191/ 2784 -3121® F: +91 (40) 6667 -1111 Hanuman. chowdary@tcs. com Talk @ Tirupati: 26 th June 2015
India was not poor “India is becoming the sink of the World’s gold” - Pliny, Roman Historians • An Ocean named after – not England, France, Portugal, Netherlands, America, Spain, Russia, China…. . but India • India’s share of – World Trade – Wealth – Industrial Production was the highest/ 2 nd highest
India was not poor! India’s Share in World Trade Year Wealth Trade 1701 22. 6% 25% 1947 NA 2. 4% 1990 NA 0. 4% 2006 1. 5% 1. 8% 2015 3. 3% 3%
India was not poor! Share of World’s Industrial Production India Britain 1830 17. 5 9. 6 1900 1. 5 18. 6
Why did we become poor • The Islamic Invasions, Loot & Over lordship • The British Colonial Exploitation • The post-independent Nehruvian “Socialism” emphasis on distribution of wealth before creation.
How the colonial rogues wrought the ruin: Macaulay in British Parliament " I have traveled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber, that I do not think we would ever conquer this country, unless we break the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage, and, therefore, I propose that we replace her old ancient education system, her culture, for if the Indians think that all that is foreign and English is good and greater than their own, they will lose their self-esteem, their native self-culture and they will become what we want them, a truly dominated nation. ”
How the colonial rogues wrought the ruin: Macaulay's famous Minute of 1835 "We must at present do our best to form a class of persons, Indians in blood and colour, but English in taste in opinions, in morals and intellect” *Post-1947, “secular, socialist” India produced more such persons than Britain between 1757&1947
How the colonial rogues wrought the ruin: Macaulay de-Indianises education • Macaulay’s (in) famous note in 1838 to discard the Indian system of education and introduce the British system to produce “a class of people, Indian only in colour and blood but British in tastes, values, views and thoughts…” • Pt. Nehru proudly told John Kenneth Galbraith that he is the last Englishman to rule India.
World Population and the Poor Year Population % of the Poor 1820 1. 1 bln 85% 1980 4 bln 30% 2000 6 bln 20% 2007 6. 5 bln 18% 2015 7. 2 bln 15%
S & T for Wealth Creation World GDP per Person, 1000=100 8, 600 4500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 2000 2015 Source: Angus Maddison; J. P. Morgan 4000
Science & Technology and Organization (Governments, Corporations, use S&T) Poverty came down Country From % Indonesia 58 Malaysia Thailand S/pore 37 (1972) 49 (1973) (1962) 24 India 75 (1972) To % (1951) 17 14 26 10 30 (1982) (1987) (1986) (1982) (2002)* Life expectancy up from 56 to 71 during this period * 2015 -26% but according to Food Security Act 65%
Content of GDP ( Figs. in %) Developed Developing India Agri <5% 30 to 40 15 Industry 25 20 to 25 27 Service 70 35 to 50 58 China 12 55 33
What makes a Great Nation • Low poverty/ High GDP/Capita • Military power & willingness capability to deploy anywhere • Knowledge production – R&D; Nobel Laureate class; S&T people& spend & world class research papers • Moral, ethical, cultural values, philosophy; spirituality, literature
How Equipped is India for Higher Education Country Population (mln) No of Universities To be on par with the country of comparison; Varsities India needs to have Korea 45 120 3000 Israel 6 10 1700 Lesotho 2 2 1000 UK 50 170 3400 USA 280 1700 6100 India 1250 700 1200 Australia 18 39 2200 China 1300 1000 850 *Suggest: Begin having a University for each District * Every Private Engineering College should be required to grow into a University within 8 years of wind up. • Corporates to found. fund ‘Varsities’. • In India we have 8. 8 mln. or 5% of the young in the age group 18 to 23 yrs. in Universities
S &T Personnel * (per 1000 persons) * As of Y 2008
No. of Scientific Papers Published Country 1980 2000 India China S. Korea Brazil Israel 4, 983 924 175 2, 215 5, 773 12, 217 22, 061 12, 013 9, 565 9, 292 No. of papers/mil. people Y 2000 12. 0 19. 0 270 70 1, 550 Source: Science Citation Index. Inst. For Scientific Information Philadelphia ( E. T 23. 08. 02)
India Produces Graduates Engineers MCAs MBAs 5. 0 mln 1, 300, 000 * 50, 000 80, 000 * certified; not qualified
Ten-Year Trend in Engineering and Technology Ph. D Degrees in the United States, China and India Source: The India Economy Review, 30 Sept 2007, Vol. 4; www. iipm. thiktank. com
Ten-Year Trend in Engineering and Technology Master’s Degrees in the United States, China and India (Actual and Estimated Data) Source: The India Economy Review, 30 Sept 2007, Vol. 4; www. iipm. thiktank. com
Significant Facts About R&D in India (1) Scientific Research Department & Agencies of the Government of India = 15 Labs of the Indian Council of Medical Research = 27 Labs of the Indian Council of Agri Research = 64 Labs of the CSIR = 41 Instns. Of the Def. Rsch& Dev. Org (DRDO) = 51 Instns. Of the Dept of S&T =12 In-house R&D units in Pvt. Sector (Recd. By GOI) as on Nov 1999 =1, 198 2007 = 1, 500
Power of Knowledge will forever govern ignorance and people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge given. -James Madison (Inscription at the entrance to the Library of Congress) The empires of the mind are the empires of the future. - Winston Churchill
The Wealthiest and Valuable • Who are India’s richest? • In what businesses? • Which businesses have the highest market capitalisation? – ICTs [S/W; BPO; KPO] – Pharmaceutical – Construction
Essentials for Prosperity (1) “It is glorious to be rich”. “It does not matter whether the cat is white or black as long as it catches rats” -Deng Tsiao Ping • Human Resource • Entrepreneurship, not entitlement • Duties, not rights ( Every right is in a duty fulfilled) • Saving to form capital • Proper use of resources to generate surpluses/profit • Work Ethic First; • Welfare must be related to work “He who does not work, neither shall he eat…” - V I Lenin
Essentials for Prosperity (2) • Respect for & glorifying the wealth creators- Businessmen, Industrialists Ambanis, Anji Reddi, Narayana Murthy, Tatas, Azim Premji, Sunil Mittal Bharti • Least (essential) government & taxation. “You give me the tax and keep the income” • Environment that encourages investment ( eg: Ind. States competing to give concessions) • Educated, healthy, inspired citizenry
Essentials for Prosperity (3) • Sustainable population “Our right to breed Your duty to feed” ! Mantra: one, two, three • No labour-lordism nor exploitation • Leadership with VISION ( kanakapu------) • Least corruption; no crony- capitalism “Where government is in business people there will be poor” -Tiruvalluvar
Essential Infrastructure • Highways/Railways/Skyways, Sea & River Ports • Telecoms • Power (National Grid) • Irrigation • Schools ( Py&Sy) • Health care (PHSs) • Drinking water
What Liberalization Could Do
Growth of Phones in India Source : DOT Annual Report 2003 1994 - 10 mln; 2015 – 1000 mln)
Bring down price to increase affordability X (a) Affordability A TSP PCI Time A PCI/ Tele-Service Price - PCI: Per Capita Income - TSP: Telephone Service Price - A: Affordability
Affordability of Telephone 1951 1994 2007 2015 Revenue/Line *at current exchange parity $125 $250 $125 $50 Rev. as% of PCI 2. 5 1. 0 0. 12 0. 04 PCI Affordability Tel. Svce. Price
Affordability of Electronic Devices: Ratio of Price of Device to Per Capita Income 1951 1974 1994 2007 2015 Radio 2. 0 0. 5 0. 02 0. 005 1/160 TV Set NA 1. 9 1. 2 0. 37 1/8 Year’s Telephone Service 2. 5 1. 0 0. 12 1/27 PC NA NA 6. 0 0. 75 1/8
What Liberalization Could Do • Global, broad-band (Satellite & undersea Fiber Optic Cables) band-width makes software, ITES, BPO, KPO services from India to US, EU • Software Exports & Jobs (Rs. 5 lakh crores; 32 lakh persons) • Air Lines (6) compete with Railways • Banks & Finance Companies to give personal loans • Cars, scooters are for the asking – no waiting • Foreign exchange for travel abroad aplenty
Leadership • • Enlightened, Visionary Natinal Goals- Defence & Inspire people Moral, Ethical Values Leadership by Education of the led & not populist promises • Education that instills – – patriotism, hard work and duties Reverence for and pride in the nation’s history and culture Co-operative endeavour and competitive spirit to excel Culture and aspiration • Defalsification of India’s History
China, USA & India
India X China India 9. 6 mln sq. kmts 3. 2 mln sq. kmts Population 1360 1250 GDP ($) 10 tln 2 tln PCI 4 times India’s Foreign Currency Reserves $ 3. 88 tln ( 12 times more $ 330 bln than India’s) GFCF 18. 3% 8. 9% GFCF as % of GDP 47. 3% 26. 7% CPI Inflation ( in the last 25 years) 4. 5% 7. 9% CPI Inflation in 2014 1. 99% 6. 35%
India X China Lending rate China India <5. 6% 10. 25% Domestic Savings as % of 52% GDP 30% Urbanisation 1985 22. 8% 24. 3% 2013 53. 2% 32. 0% Exports 2014 $3. 44 tln (9 times India’s) $400 bln Electric Power 1360 GW 260 GW Of which Hydro 302 GW (22%) 54 GW ( 16%) Largest Hydro 22, 500 MW ( 3 Gorges) 3000 MW (Arunachal)
India X China India China In armed forces: China out-matches by 2: 1 in every aspect Why this disparity Politics Populist, welfare ethic not work ethic; feed to breed voters Corruption thrives leaked welfare 832 TV channels idiotise, don’t instruct One party, intensely Nationalist, one child-norm No work: No eat Less than 5 TV channels educate, instruct, inspire, ignite aspiration & glorify work (Source: Business India, May 25 –June 7, 2015 )
China X U. S. A (1) • Between 1992 & 2002 China more than doubled the proportion of GDP spent on R&D. This level stagnated in the USA. • China boosted its output of Ph. Ds in science and engineering by 14% a year; US grades fell ! • China’s tech-intensive exports grew 22% / p. a while US high-tech exports declined.
China X U. S. A (2) • US awards 25% of all their Ph. Ds in Science & Engineering of Chinese students; these are lured by the China. • GE has 27 labs in China working on projects from composite materials design to molecular modelling. • Microsoft, CISCO, Daimler Chrysler, IBM, Intel…have development centers in China • NSF (USA) concerned with decline in Research funding & science education (creationism!)
CPI Gross Fixed Capital Formation ($M) 5000 India China 4000 3000 2000 1990 -2013 0 (Source: Business India, May 25 –June 7, 2015 )
India X China • Economic Reforms: China 1978; India 1991; China built human capital-education & health & controlled population • China’s reforms gone farther; reaped bigger rewards • Regional disparities, unemployment & enduring poverty of farmers common problems • Short of land, water, energy & face environmental decay • China’s cities transformed out of all recognition; India’s, in most visible essentials, stayed the same.
India X China GDP& PCI Growth 1980 1990 s 2000 -08 2007 2015 China 9. 3% 9. 7% 10. 0% $2100 bln $10. 0 tln India 5. 6% 5. 8% 8. 5% $900 bln $2. 0 tln
India X China • China’s idle young look at Internet • India’s idle young look at the Idiot box, TV • Boys to girls : China 118 to 100 Ratio India 108 to 100 Delhi 122 to 100 • In 1800 AD China was slightly richer than India but poorer since then
India X China • BPL ( < $1/ day) fell by 400 m in China between 1981 & 2001 and by 20 m In India between 1977 & 2000 BPL fell by 17% and in China by 35% Year China India Undernourished 1992 194 m 221 2002 142 m 216
India X China • ¼ of world’s poor in India • 47% of India’s under Y 5 are underweight 10% in China India Infant mortality per 1000 30 65 Life Expectancy 71 63 Adult Literacy 91 57
India X China • India more corrupt than China • Transparency Intnl Year China India 1994 2. 16 2. 8 2004 3. 4 2. 8 [Anything below 3 is rampant corruption ]
India X China • India more efficient in using capital Investment/GDP Growth India (22 to 23)% 8% China 45% 10% India’s employees in mfr. 6. 2 m China’s 160 m * India needs to invest 35% of GDP to get GDP growth of (8 to 9)% but subsidies to poor are increasing
India X China • India must move people from farm to factory Farm productivity Y 2001 China India Rice 6350 2904 kg/hectare Wheat 3823 2742 • Time taken 41 89 days to get business pmt: • Co. allowed: 2. 4 Y 10 Y to go
Spending, yuan bn Staff, FTEs*, m Big thinkers China’s R&D staff and spending (Source: The Economist, November 10, 2007) * Full-time equivalent man-years
Boffins without borders % of firms with R&D centres in (Source: The Economist, November 10, 2007)
What India Needs to do • Contain population ( with draw welfare, promotion and vote) • Withdraw subsidies • Learn & Earn • Education to create ability and morality and wisdom • Health Insurance • Old Age Homes • Education ( SETs, private colleges, varsities) • Massive Road construction; afforestation; centaur-bunding; water-bodies; work only if people move to where they are wanted • Private sector in Education
What India Needs to do (2) • Massive housing construction; re-skills to farm labour as masons, carpenters, plumbers, electricians • Political Party Regulator of India (insist to spell out what resources; what taxes on whom for every promise given), prosecute fraudster parties. • Government as regulator; not doer, disinvest and retire debt - Rs. 125, 000 cr as Interest payment • Legislation to put ceiling on – (a) government servant expense – (b) tax as % of GSP/GDP – (c) debt as % of GDP
What India Needs to do (3) • Massive Defence R&D : contract out • If” reserved” items can be removed from SSI; so should reservation into government & educational institutions • Government to get off Hindu temples& direct administration of welfare • Ban conversion: Law to govern change of religion like change of wife / husband divorce • End Fraud of minority colleges
Bharat Mahan • • • Intellectual & spiritual ( Dharma) Economic (Artha) Power Prosperity for all (Kama) Military Power Willingness to play global role Yoga Day : 21 June
Bharat’s View of the World’s Peopels • • Vasudhaiva kutumbakam Aa noh bhadraah ritavo yaantu viswatah Lokaah samasta sukhinoh bhavantu Isaa vaasyamidam jagat, Tyaktena bhunjithaa Maa gridhah. . Sahanaavavatu, Sahanau bhunaktu Sahaveeryam karavaavahaih Maa vidvishaavahaiah Tejaswinaavadheetamastu • Om Santih, Santih
Dhanyawad: Thank You
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