Budget Review 200405 Andile Mazwai February 2004 Overview

Budget Review 2004/05 Andile Mazwai February 2004

Overview § § Key macro points Forecasts and assumptions Taxation Employment creation

Key Macro Points § Kept fiscal policy expansionary as deficit grew to 3. 1% of GDP § FY 03/04 revenue under performed by R 4. 2 bn to R 300. 3 bn § But still displays fiscal discipline as FY 03/04 spending lowered by R 2. 3 bn to R 331. 7 bn and FY 05/06 deficit reduced § If Rand remains strong it will widen the deficit by lowering growth § Little foreign exchange relaxations notwithstanding Rand strength § No change to tax on retirement industry (policy proposal 2004) § No detail on privatisation, but extraordinary receipts cut to R 2. 7 bn from R 4. 7 bn § Debt funding of FY 04/05 R 46. 2 bn deficit in the bond market may place upward pressure on interest rates

Forecasts and Assumptions § GDP growth • 2003 1. 9%, 2004 2. 9%, 2005 3. 6%, 2006 4. 0% • We consider Treasury's 05 and 06 forecasts to being ambitious. We forecast growth of not much more than 3. 0% in this period. § Deficit • FY 03/04 2. 6%, FY 04/05 3. 1%, FY 05/06 3. 0% , FY 06/07 2. 8% • Given our muted GDP forecasts we see a risk of revenue underruns in FY 05/06 and FY 06/07, meaning that the deficit could widen. § Inflation • "comfortably inside" 6% - 3% target band • Notwithstanding the impact of the drought, we believe that there has been a structural break in inflation and share the view that inflation will be kept within the target band. 5. 6% in 2005 and 5. 0% in 2006.

Forecasts and Assumptions § Rand/USD • Treasury does not provide explicit forecasts for the rand exchange rate, an implicit exchange rate view can perhaps be drawn from estimated rand proceeds from foreign market loans shown in its financing numbers. • Current implicit forecast; Q 204 7. 40, Q 205 8. 10, Q 206 8. 91 • November’s implicit forecast; Q 204 8. 49, Q 205 8. 99, Q 206 9. 80 • This suggests much greater optimism on the currency versus November’s implicit projections and creates greater internal consistency in government’s macro projections.

Taxation § No major changes were announced this year, which underscores that the gradual restructuring has worked to broaden the base and reduced the impact on economic behaviour. The exceptions are with; • the taxation of mining companies (following the Commissioners remarks) and the review of the Mineral Royalty Bill and • the expected reform to the tax on the retirement industry (policy proposal 2004). § No change to VAT was correct decision. § Revenue under-run limited relief to R 4. 0 bn. • 60% of which is for earners below R 150'000 pa. § Treasury forecasts 13. 4% growth in company receipts (from 8. 8% in FY 03/04). We consider this to be optimistic, given the extent to which the stronger currency is shrinking exporter profitability.

Employment Creation § Is the Minister’s aim of reducing unemployment by half by 2014 realistic? § A labour-based public works program requires; • Dept of Education and Labour to deliver human capital to serve as a fertile field for the seed of physical capital. • Increased savings rate (create and promote a savings culture). • Broad-based empowerment. The charter scorecard system correctly reduces the fixation on equity ownership and focuses and employment equity and skills development. • Strong governance to prevent the process being hijacked by corruption. • State entities as effective agents of change. State financial institutions should behave less like commercial banks and more like development finance institutions. § It’s difficult to foretell the next 10 years, but based on the last 10 – then it’s realistic to be optimistic.

Q&A