Budget 09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt

Budget 09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January 2011 Carbon Budget 2009

GCP-Carbon Budget 2009 Contributors Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRSUVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRSUVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steve Davis Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Richard A. Feely Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Pru Foster QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Chris Huntingford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Peter E. Levy Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Sam Levis National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA Mark R. Lomas Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U Joseph Majkut AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Corinne Le Quéré School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK James T. Randerson Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA Guido R. van der Werf Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France F. Ian Woodward Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, UK Sönke Zaehle Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Ning Zeng University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

GCP-Carbon Budget 2009 http: //www. globalcarbonproject. org/carbonbud Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10. 1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http: //www. nature. com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo 10 22. html

Units • 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 x 1015 g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton • 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1 x 1012 g = 1 Million metric tons • 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3. 67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO 2)

C y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg Growth rate 2000 -2009 2. 5 % per year CO 2 y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions Growth rate 1990 -1999 1 % per year 2009: Emissions: 8. 4± 0. 5 Pg. C Growth rate: -1. 3% 1990 level: +37% 2000 -2008 Growth rate: +3. 2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2000 China (C tons x 1, 000) Carbon Emissions per year 2009 1600 USA 1200 800 India Russian Fed. 400 Japan 0 1990 93 95 97 99 2001 03 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden. CDIAC 2010 05 07 2009

2009 160 (C tons x 1, 000) Carbon Emissions per year Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Profile Examples UK Canada 120 80 Australia Spain The Netherlands 40 0 1990 Denmark 93 95 97 99 01 03 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010 05 07 2009

5 57% Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) 4 y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg. C Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions Developed Nation 3 43% Developing Nations Non- 2 Annex B 1990 2000 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010 2010

0 2000 1500 3 1000 500 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010 Emissions (tons C person y-1) IN A U SA IN R DIA U SS JA IA G P ER A M N AN SO Y U TH IRA K N U O N R C IT A ED N EA K AD IN A G SA M DO M U E SO DI XIC U AR O TH A B IN AF IA D RI O C N A ES IT IA A FR BR LY AN AU A C ST ZIL E R (in AL l. IA M PO ona LA co N ) SP D AI N H 2500 4 2 1 0 Per Capita C 1, 000) Total Carbon Emissions (tons x Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 6 5

y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg. C CO 2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type 4 40% Oil 3 Coal 36% 2 Gas 1 Cement 0 1990 2000 Time (y) 2010 Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Change in CO 2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009) 300 250 92% of growth 200 150 1) CO 2 emissions (Tg C y- 350 100 50 0 China India US -50 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden- World

Fossil Fuel Emission (Pg. Cy-1) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 9 Observed Projected A 1 B Models Average A 1 FI Models Average A 1 T Models Average A 2 Models Average 8 B 1 Models Average B 2 Models Average 7 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Time (y) Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 2015

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y-1) Year 2004 From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

10 y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg. C CO 2 Emissions from FF and LUC (19602009) 8 Fossil fuel 6 LUC emissions now ~10% of total CO 2 emission 4 Land use change 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature 2000 2010

1990 -1999 1. 5± 0. 7 Pg. Cy-1 y-1) CO 2 emissions 2000 -2009 1. 1± 0. 7 Pg. Cy-1 (Pg. CO 2 y-1) CO 2 emissions (Pg. C CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change 1990 s Emissions: 1. 5± 0. 7 Pg. C 2000 -2005 Emissions: 1. 3± 0. 7 Pg. C 2006 -2010: Emissions: 0. 9± 0. 7 Pg. C Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

Tropical Temperate 5 18 0 60 18 70 18 8 18 0 9 19 0 00 19 10 19 2 19 0 30 19 40 19 5 19 0 60 19 70 19 80 19 9 20 0 00 20 10 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 18 y-1) CO 2 emissions (Tg. C Emissions from Land Use Change (18502009) Time (y) R. A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (18502009) 800 600 C y-1) Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa 400 200 0 -200 18 50 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 10 CO 2 emissions (Tg 1000 Time (y) R. A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Fire Emissions from deforestation zones (Tg C y-1) Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones 1400 Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3. 1 America Africa Asia Pan-tropics 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 199 7 9 9 0 1 2003 Time (y) 0 5 0 7 van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 200 9

Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration 390 December 2009: 387. 2 ppm September 2010 (preliminary): 389. 2 ppm 388 39% above pre-industrial 386 384 382 November 2010 Parts Per Million (ppm) GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO 2 380 378 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1) 2011 1970 – 1979: 1. 3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1. 6 ppm y 1 1990 – 1999: 1. 5 ppm y-1 2000 - Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1. 62 1. 80 2. 14 1. 84 2. 39 1. 60 2. 19 2. 40 1. 89 1. 22

Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atm Total CO 2 emissions 8 (Pg. C y-1) CO 2 Partitioning 10 6 4 Atmospher e 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010 2000 2010

Airborne Fraction of total CO 2 emissions that remains in the atmosph Airborne Fraction 1. 0 0. 8 Trend: 0. 31 % y-1 (p=~0. 9) 45% 40% 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2000 2010

Modelled Natural CO 2 Sinks 0 5 models Land sink (Pg. Cy-1) 2 -2 -4 -6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 5 models Ocean sink (Pg. Cy-1) 2 -2 -4 -6 1960 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 5 deforestation 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1. 1± 0. 7

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source fossil fuel emissions Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 7. 7± 0. 5 5 deforestation 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1. 1± 0. 7

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source fossil fuel emissions Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 7. 7± 0. 5 5 deforestation 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1. 1± 0. 7

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source fossil fuel emissions 7. 7± 0. 5 5 deforestation atmospheric CO 2 Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1. 1± 0. 7 4. 1± 0. 1

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source fossil fuel emissions 7. 7± 0. 5 5 deforestation atmospheric CO 2 Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 1. 1± 0. 7 4. 1± 0. 1 5 ocean 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2. 3± 0. 4 (5 models)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Bud 2000 -2009 (Pg. C) Source fossil fuel emissions 7. 7± 0. 5 5 deforestation atmospheric CO 2 Sink CO 2 flux (Pg. C y-1) 10 land 5 ocean 2. 4(Residual) 2. 3± 0. 4 (5 models) 10 1850 1. 1± 0. 7 4. 1± 0. 1 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (20002009) 1. 1± 0. 7 Pg. C y-1 4. 1± 0. 1 Pg. C y-1 47% + 7. 7± 0. 5 Pg. C y-1 2. 4 Pg. C y-1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 2. 3± 0. 4 Pg. C y-1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget Global Carbon Project 2010

References cited in this ppt • • • • Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866– 18870, http: //www. pnas. org/content/104/47/18866. abstract Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http: //cdiac. ornl. gov/trends/emis/meth_reg. html Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO 2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687 -5692. http: //www. pnas. org/content/107/12/5687 International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010. http: //www. imf. org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/ Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; http: //www. fao. org/forestry/fra 2010/en/ Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10. 1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http: //www. nature. com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo 1022. html Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http: //www. globalcarbonproject. org/carbonbudget Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10. 1038/ngeo 689. http: //www. nature. com/ngeo/journal/v 2/n 12/full/ngeo 689. html Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO 2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401 -1407. http: //pubs. acs. org/doi/abs/10. 1021/es 072023 k Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288 -10293. http: //www. pnas. org/content/104/24/10288 Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601– 1613. http: //www. biogeosciences. net/5/1601/2008/bg-5 -1601 -2008. html Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www. esrl. noaa. gov/gmd/ccgg/trends van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997– 2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. , 10, 16153 -16230. http: //www. atmos-chem-phys-discuss. net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10 -16153 -2010. html

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