Buckinghamshires Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count June

Buckinghamshire’s Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count June 2021

Background This report provides a monthly summary of the number of Buckinghamshire residents claiming ‘out-of-work’ related benefits (the Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count). Data is sourced from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and can be found in varying configurations on the NOMIS, Stat-Explore and DWP websites. A full explanation of the two measures can be found in the Technical Appendix at the end of this report.

Headlines – May 2021 In May 2021, 14, 110 Buckinghamshire residents were claiming ‘out-of-work’ related benefits (the Claimant Count). The number of claimants in Buckinghamshire fell by 930 between April 2021 and May 2021, to the lowest level in 12 months. There were 8, 570 more claimants in Buckinghamshire in May 2021 than at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Buckinghamshire’s Claimant Count rate (number of claimants as a proportion of working age residents) currently stands at 4. 3%, down from 4. 6% in April 2021, and lower than the national average of 6. 1%. When compared to other LEP areas, Buckinghamshire has the 7 th lowest Claimant Count rate (up from having the fourth lowest rate pre-pandemic). Buckinghamshire’s Claimant Count rate rose by 2. 6 percentage points between March 2020 and May 2021, compared to the national increase of 3. 1 percentage points. Within Buckinghamshire, the Claimant Count rate is highest in the Wycombe parliamentary constituency area (6. 2%). The number of young people (aged 16 -24) claiming has increased at a greater rate than other age groups. London has experienced the largest increase in Claimant Count rates, with edge-of-London areas (particularly those close to Heathrow and Gatwick airports) tending to see higher than average increases in Claimant Count rates and higher than average levels of furloughing.

Table 1: Claimant Count – May 2021 Area Parliamentary constituency Aylesbury March 2020 Number May 2021 % Number March 2020 - May 2021 % Change % point change 1, 420 1. 8 3, 320 4. 2 1, 900 2. 4 Beaconsfield 820 1. 4 2, 400 4. 0 1, 580 2. 6 Buckingham 710 1. 1 2, 040 3. 2 1, 330 2. 1 Chesham and Amersham Wycombe 750 1. 4 2, 010 3. 6 1, 260 2. 2 1, 840 2. 6 4, 340 6. 2 2, 500 3. 6 5, 540 1. 7 14, 110 4. 3 8, 570 2. 6 1, 063, 505 3. 0 2, 148, 130 6. 1 1, 084, 625 3. 1 Buckinghamshire England Source: DWP, via NOMIS

Ja nu Fe ary br 2 ua 01 9 r M y 2 ar 01 ch 9 Ap 201 ril 9 M 201 ay 9 Ju 201 ne 9 2 Ju 019 l A y Se ugu 201 pt st 9 em 2 0 Oc ber 19 2 t No ob 01 ve er 9 2 De mb 01 ce er 9 m 20 b 1 Ja er 9 nu 20 Fe ary 19 br 2 ua 02 0 r M y 2 ar 02 ch 0 Ap 202 ril 0 M 202 ay 0 Ju 202 ne 0 2 Ju 020 l A y Se ugu 202 pt st 0 em 2 0 Oc ber 20 No tob 202 ve er 0 2 De mb 02 e ce r 0 m 20 b 2 Ja er 0 nu 20 Fe ary 20 br 2 ua 02 1 r M y 2 ar 02 ch 1 Ap 202 ril 1 M 202 ay 1 20 21 Chart 1: Claimant Count – May 2021 7, 0 6, 0 5, 0 18 000 8, 570 more claimants in May 2021 than in March 2020 16 000 14 000 12 000 4, 0 10 000 3, 0 8 000 2, 0 6 000 4 000 1, 0 2 000 0, 0 0 Bucks - number Bucks % England % Source: DWP, via NOMIS

pt em b Oc er 2 to 01 No be 8 ve r 2 m 0 De be 18 ce r 2 m 01 be 8 Ja r 2 nu 01 Fe ary 8 br 20 ua 19 ry M 20 ar 1 ch 9 20 Ap 19 ril 2 M 019 ay 2 Ju 019 ne 20 Ju 19 l Au y 20 Se gu 19 pt st em 20 b 19 Oc er 2 0 t No obe 19 r ve m 20 De be 19 ce r 2 m 01 be 9 Ja r 2 nu 01 Fe ary 9 br 20 ua 20 ry M 20 ar 2 ch 0 20 Ap 20 ril 2 M 020 ay 2 Ju 020 ne 20 Ju 20 ly Au 20 Se gu 20 pt st em 20 b 20 Oc er 2 0 t No obe 20 ve r 2 m 0 De be 20 ce r 2 m 02 be 0 Ja r 2 nu 02 Fe ary 0 br 20 ua 21 ry M 20 ar 2 ch 1 2 Ap 021 ril 2 M 021 ay 20 21 Se Chart 2: Buckinghamshire’s Claimant Count rate as a percentage of the national Claimant Count rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 43% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: DWP, via NOMIS

York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Cumbria Greater Lincolnshire North East Gloucestershire The Marches Heart of the South West Cheshire and Warrington Swindon and Wiltshire Oxfordshire Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Tees Valley Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire New Anglia Humber Coast to Capital West of England Worcestershire Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Lancashire Buckinghamshire Leicester and Leicestershire Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough Coventry and Warwickshire Dorset Hertfordshire South East Thames Valley Berkshire Liverpool City Region Sheffield City Region South East Midlands Greater Manchester Black Country Greater Birmingham and Solihull Leeds City Region London Chart 3: Claimant Count rate % point increase (March 2020 to May 2021) by Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) area 6, 0 5, 0 4, 0 3, 0 2, 0 1, 0 0, 0 Source: DWP, via NOMIS

York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Oxfordshire Enterprise M 3 Gloucestershire Swindon and Wiltshire Cumbria Buckinghamshire The Marches West of England Heart of the South West Cheshire and Warrington Hertfordshire Worcestershire New Anglia Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough Thames Valley Berkshire Leicester and Leicestershire Coast to Capital Dorset Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Solent Greater Lincolnshire Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Coventry and Warwickshire South East Midlands Lancashire Sheffield City Region Humber North East Leeds City Region Liverpool City Region Tees Valley Greater Manchester London Greater Birmingham and Solihull Black Country Chart 4: Claimant Count rate by LEP area (May 2021) 10, 0 9, 0 8, 0 7, 0 6, 0 5, 0 4, 0 3, 0 2, 0 1, 0 0, 0 Source: DWP, via NOMIS

Table 2: Claimant Count by age for Buckinghamshire – May 2021 Age March 2020 May 2021 March 2020 % point change May 2021 % in share change Aged 16 -24 885 16% 2, 405 17% 172% 1% Aged 25 -49 3, 065 55% 7, 990 57% 161% 1% Aged 50+ 1, 590 29% 3, 720 26% 134% -2% Column total 5, 540 100% 14, 110 100% 155% Source: DWP, via NOMIS

Characteristics of claimants • Between March 2020 and May 2021, the Claimant Count rate in Buckinghamshire for men rose by 3 percentage points, compared to 2. 2 percentage points for women. • There is currently no local data on the number of people moving from employment to being ‘economically inactive’. Those doing so are more likely to be women than men. • Young people have been worst affected age group to date. • There was a 172% increase in the number of 16 -24 year old claimants in Buckinghamshire between March 2020 and May 2021, compared to a 155% increase across all ages.

January 2013 March 2013 May 2013 July 2013 September 2013 November 2013 January 2014 March 2014 May 2014 July 2014 September 2014 November 2014 January 2015 March 2015 May 2015 July 2015 September 2015 November 2015 January 2016 March 2016 May 2016 July 2016 September 2016 November 2016 January 2017 March 2017 May 2017 July 2017 September 2017 November 2017 January 2018 March 2018 May 2018 July 2018 September 2018 November 2018 January 2019 March 2019 May 2019 July 2019 September 2019 November 2019 January 2020 March 2020 May 2020 July 2020 September 2020 November 2020 January 2021 Chart 5: Alternative Claimant Count rate January 2013 to February 2021 – Buckinghamshire 6, 0% 5, 0% 4, 0% 3, 0% 2, 0% 1, 0% 0, 0% Source: DWP, via Stat-Xplore

Chart 6: Movement of people onto and off ‘out of work’ benefits 8 000 7 000 On Flow 6 000 Off Flow 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 nu Ja De ce m be r 2 01 9 ar y 2 02 Fe 0 br ua ry 20 20 M ar ch 20 20 Ap ril 20 20 M ay 20 20 Ju ne 20 20 Ju ly 20 20 Au gu st Se 20 pt 20 em be r 2 02 Oc 0 to be r 2 No 02 ve 0 m be r 2 De 02 ce 0 m be r 2 02 Ja 0 nu ar y 2 02 Fe 1 br ua ry 20 21 - Source: Alternative Claimant Count, DWP, via Stat-Xplore

Technical Appendix (1) • Local-level unemployment data is not available from a single, timely, reliable source. • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) model local unemployment data using data from the Annual Population Survey and the Claimant Count (administrative data on those claiming out-of-work benefits) • However, this is not available in real or near-time. Modelled unemployment data is released on a quarterly basis and covers the previous 12 months. So, for example, data released in October 2020, relates to the period July 2019 to June 2020 • This is not therefore a useful source for the timely tracking of the impact of Covid-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy

Technical Appendix (2) • The Claimant Count counts the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be available for work. • It is a measure of the number of people claiming ‘out-of-work’ related benefits. • Whilst the Claimant Count is not a measure of unemployment, it is a useful proxy at the local level • It is also a timely measure as data is released on a monthly basis. Data released in the second week in October 2020 for example, measures the number of claimants in the month to the second week in September 2020.

Technical Appendix (3) Some key things to bear in mind when interpreting this data… • Not all those who are unemployed claim benefits. This is largely due to people finding new work very quickly or having other sources of financial support at home. • In normal (non-pandemic) times, it is estimated that around 55% of unemployed Buckinghamshire residents claim benefits and are therefore counted within the Claimant Count. A much lower proportion than the national average. • Not all those counted within the Claimant Count are unemployed (some are working a low number of hours and / or are earning a low income). • Due to the phased nature of recent changes to the benefits system, the Claimant Count cannot be used to measure historical trends. • DWP therefore publish the Alternative Claimant Count, which models what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been in place since 2013. This data is less timely than the Claimant Count itself. For example, data for August 2020 was published in October 2020. And is published quarterly rather than monthly. • Buckinghamshire LEP will therefore track and publish commentary on both the Claimant Count and the Alternative Claimant Count.

For further information on the information presented within this slide deck please contact James Moorhouse – james. moorhouse@buckslep. co. uk Links below to the data tables used are below. . Claimant Count Alternative Claimant Count Further analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy can be found on the Buckinghamshire LEP website. • Evidence pack (updated monthly) is available here • Evidence base produced to underpin the Buckinghamshire Recovery Strategy can be found here Follow @caroline_BLEP for tweets about the Buckinghamshire economy and labour market