Bruce Robinson Convenor ASPOAustralia Bruce RobinsonASPOAustralia org au

Bruce Robinson Convenor, ASPO-Australia Bruce. Robinson@ASPO-Australia. org. au Multi-level oil-vulnerability risk assessment & reduction There are many practical strategies to minimise the impacts of Peak Oil but we must search for them at different levels. The "big picture" is too hard for most of us, and there are many important savings and opportunities at smaller scales. National economy Industry sector Global Oil Vulnerability map Melbourne Green is low, Red is high National Regional for example City, town Neighbourhood Household Port Phillip Bay Dodson and Sipe, 2005 ASPO-Australia Working groups Finance Sector Health Sector Social Services Sector Remote indigenous communities Active transport (bicycle & walking) Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Biofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industry Behavioural change Local Government sector Regional and city working groups Construction Industry Freight sector Public transport sector Defence and Security Economics Tourism for example Health sector Large organisation Division/unit Small business Individual National health system Regional health authority Single hospital Single doctor’s practice Individual person Health: If fuel is scarce, how will essential staff get to the hospitals and clinics? How will the patients get to appointments? Essential-service fuel allocation strategies are needed. What structural changes are needed to reduce health oil vulnerability? Preventative health lifestyle measures will be far more cost-effective than high-tech medicine. Reduced car usage and lower speeds will greatly reduce road trauma. Healthier lifestyles will reduce obesity and diseases of affluence. We need to look in detail at a number of levels to find the benefits and minimise the risks. ASPO-Australia is a network of professionals. Our working-group structure allows each to focus on specific parts of the overall impact scenarios using our relevant expertise. There are many options for oil vulnerability mitigation and adaptation in a wide variety of fields. Our working group submissions to the Australian Senate inquiry into future oil supplies are at www. ASPO-Australia. org. au Individuals & communities will gain by planning now to reduce oil usage. We must look for opportunities at the micro level. The big picture is just a composite of innumerable little pictures. Demand trend Transport - Individual Choices Each trip is a result of a decision by an individual. It is crucial to consider individuals as well as gross aggregates. Individualised Marketing programs reduce car kms by 10 -15%; just by providing information to empower individuals. A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle travel would save as much oil as Iraq produces (Robinson, 2004) With encouragement, price signals and restrictions BIG changes in both behaviour and fuel use are likely. We will benefit by reducing both our psychological and physical automobile dependence. Our health, environment and economy will benefit from lower transport demand. Oil Vulnerability Auditing & Risk Management Supply There is no "magic bullet" solution, just lots of small things which together will make a big difference. Engaging people will be far more promising than technofixes. will be an enormous growth industry in future, when awareness of Peak Oil rises. People and companies need help to look into where their opportunities and risks lie. Children free to walk and skip to school? ; or being driven to school in big cars? . Which is better for the children, the environment and our oil vulnerability? Superannuation and pension funds Retirement money is risked in oil-vulnerable investments like tollroads, airports and airlines. Vital resources are diverted to counterproductive infrastructure. People should ask their pension funds for an oil-vulnerability index of their investment strategies. Dodson, J & Sipe, N (2005) “Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City” www. griffith. edu. au/centre/urp/URP_RP 6_Oil. Vulnerability_Final. pdf Robinson, B W (2004) “Individualised Marketing - Travel behaviour change equivalent to discovering another Iraq? ” www. aspo-australia. org. au/References/Berlin. Nega-Barrelsposter. Robinson. ppt Frugality first, Efficiency second, Alternative fuels last.