Broadband Access Evolution FTTH Mark Broadhurst Consulting Engineer

Cisco VNI: video traffic will dominate 4 500 Online Gaming 4 000 Video Calling Exabytes/mo 3 500 15% Vo. IP Web and Data 3 000 File Sharing 2 500 Internet-Video-to-TV 2 000 36% CAGR 2009– 2014 27% Internet Video 10% 1 500 1 000 46% 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009– 2014 © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Video as a major driver for high access bitrate requirements § TV – broadcast, video on demand SDTV HDTV 3 D-HDTV § § § § Video / image up-/ download (You. Tube & Co. ) Remote collaboration on video content Video / image e-mail Video surveillance Gaming Remote health-care via High-Definition Telepresence, . . . © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Broadband growth continuing Physical access bitrates Typical for European Internet users • 100 Mbit/ in 2014 • 1 Gbit/s in 2019 • > 50% growth y/y Source: Graham Finnie, Heavy. Reading § Access bitrates driven by Visual Networking § Down- / upload of Blue-Ray disc in 1 h: 120 Mbit/s § Cloud computing – your notebook has a GE i/f for a reason Ø Very high symmetrical physical bitrates >>100 Mbit/s © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Summary bitrate drivers § “Video” is more than just TV § Video related applications and services (“Visual Networking”) will determine access bitrate requirements § Need to support multiple video applications concurrently in a household § Content will become more and more “high definition” § Majority of applications require symmetrical access bitrates § Both sustainable bitrates for streaming video as well as high peak bitrates for transfer of large (video) files are required © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Requirements for a future-proof FTTH solution § Support for growing bitrate requirements. . . 50% Yo. Y => DSL technologies will reach physical limits during the next decade over the lifetime of the fiber plant. . . >40 years without any major modification of the passive infrastructure. . . no introduction of additional components in the fiber plant easy upgrade of transmission speeds. . . on a per-customer basis § Easy management simple trouble-shooting self-installation of CPEs © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

FTTH / FTTB Topologies IP/MPLS Edge/core Ethernet/ MPLS Aggregation Network PE-AGG Access OLT FTTx Access Network P 2 MP Splitter / Filter / Active device P 2 P STB © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Topology comparison Point-to-point Point-to-multipoint Bitrate potential Virtually unlimited Limited by characteristics of aggregation point Technology dependence None Limited to few classes of access technologies Technology upgrade Per subscriber Per aggregation point Open access to fiber Straightforward Complex / impossible Troubleshooting Simple – OTDR Complex – failure correlation Number of feeder fibers One fiber per subscriber One fiber per aggregation point Dimension of fiber management One port per subscriber One port per aggregation point © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Capex distribution in the passive network © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Technology comparison Ethernet PON Scalability 100 Mbit/s. . . 10 Gbit/s. . . 2. 5. . . 10 Gbit/s Bitrate sharing Dedicated bitrate Shared bitrate Security High through dedicated medium Requires encryption, vulnerable to Do. S attacks Upstream traffic management Highly sophisticated through switch matrix Limited by capabilities of MAC protocol Interoperability OLT-CPE Easy because of ubiquitous technology Still challenging Per subscriber CO power consumption Well defined low value Depends on take rate (≈2 W), independent of take from very high to very low rate CO real estate usage ≈1150 homes connected per rack © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Depends on take rate from very high to very low 10

Fiber business models Vertically integrated model Dark fiber model Bitstream open access model Multilayer open access model Access, Services & Content Network (Backbone & Access) Physical Infrastructure (Dark Fiber) © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Requires open access to fibers 11

How do you determine the right FTTH access topology? Understand your options for the deployment of fiber in various topologies • Which business models do you plan to implement today? • Which business models do you plan to implement in 20 years from now? • Are restrictions for the deployment of certain topologies based on serious analysis of the existing infrastructure (e. g. , ducts), conservative assumptions, or driven by considerations to enable / prevent certain business models? Ø If your access infrastructure needs to be flexible, business model and technology agnostic, then deploy point-to-point fiber © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

FTTH / FTTB Topologies IP/MPLS Edge/core Ethernet/ MPLS Aggregation Network PE-AGG P 2 MP

How do you determine the right FTTH access technology? Understand your options for the technologies to be used over the fiber topology • Which peak bitrates will your customers require over the lifetime of the technology (e. g. , 5 years) which you deploy today? • Do you want to differentiate technologies between low-tier and high-tier residentials, SMEs, enterprises? • Is a unified approach simpler and cheaper in the end? • Do you need an RF video overlay? Ø If your technology choice needs to be equally suited for all types of customers, be highly scalable, mature, secure, then deploy Ethernet © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Summary § Video-related applications and services continue to drive exponential access bit rate growth § Applications increasingly require ultra-high-speed symmetrical connectivity § A new fiber plant is the most valuable asset, think long term § Ethernet is the clear choice of virtually all major FTTH deployments in Europe © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. © 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15