BPSSTATISTICS INDONESIA MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA INTERNATIONAL
BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September, 2011 KECUK SUHARIYANTO Director of Statistical Analysis and Development BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA email: kecuk@bps. go. id
INDONESIA PROFILE KEY STATISTICS Administrative Area 33 provinces, 497 districts Population 2010 (millions) 237, 6 Population Growth Rate 2000 -2010 (%) 1, 49 Economic Growth Semester 1 2011 (%) 6, 5 GDP per capita 2010 (US$) 3005 Unemployment Rate Feb 2011 (%) 6, 80 Poverty Rate March 2011 (%) 12, 49 Income Inequality (Gini Ratio) 2010 0, 38 HDI (new method) 0, 60 (ranked 108)
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN INDONESIA STRATEG TYPE OF DATA Y PROGROWTH GDP PERIODICIT TIME LAG Y Quarterly 35 days Business and Consumer Confidence Indices (BCCI) Quarterly 35 days Inflation Monthly 1 st day of the following month. Monthly One month Quarterly 30 days PRO-JOB Foreign Trade (Export. Import) Manufacturing Production Index Unemployment rate Semester Three months PRO Poverty Rate Annually Three months
UNEMPLOYMENT DATA: Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted every Feb and August, number of sampel 68, 000 HH Unemployment Rate and Development Target 20042014 MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan PROBLEMS: § Unemployment Rate: 6, 80% § 66% work in informal sector § 49, 5% elementary school § 30, 7% under employed
Unemployment Rate 2010 Scatter Plot between RGDP and Unemplyment Rate (UR) by Districts 2010 RGDP per capita 2010 INDICATION: ü High RGDP, high UR ü High RGDP, low UR ü Low RGDP, high
POVERTY DATA MACRO POVERTY DATA (since 1976, released 1 July) MICRO POVERTY DATA (2005, 2008, 2011) 1. Methodology: § Concept: Basic Needs Approach § Qualitatitve Approach § Food Poverty Line (2100 kkal per (characteristics of poor cap per day) + Non Food Pov Line hoouseholds) 2. Data Source: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), 68, 000 HH 2. Data Source: Census 3. The data show ESTIMATION of 3. The data show number of number and percentage of POOR targetting HOUSEHOLD (POOR + PEOPLE (national, province, NEAR POOR) - by name by districts) address 4. Usage: § Basis data for planning and evaluation of poverty alleviation programs (geograpic) 4. Usage: § To implement poverty alleviation programs: Unconditional cash transfer, Subsidized rice, Health security for the poor, Conditional
MACRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), conducted every March, number of sampel 68, 000 HH Poverty Rate and Development Target 2004 -2014 PROBLEMS: § 58% of the poor work in § Poverty disparities across region agriculture § 63% of the poor live in rural area § Many households are clustered around poverty line
EXAMPLE OF POVERTY MAP
. . Many people easily move out from poverty and move in to poverty (TRANSIENT POVERTY) Year 2009 Year 2008 Poor Near Poor Not Poor Total Poor 46. 71 20. 28 33. 01 100 Near Poor 22. 32 21. 53 56. 15 100 Not Poor 5. 37 7. 65 86. 98 100 Between 2008 and 2009: 53, 29% poor people move out from poverty. On the other hand, 27, 69% move in to poverty.
MICRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: Census (2005, 2008, 2011) 2005 (PSE 05) 10 2008 (PPLS 2008) Targetting Household (HH) 000 HH % Very Poor 3. 894, 3 20, 4 2. 989, 9 17, 1 Poor 8. 237, 0 43, 1 6. 828, 8 39, 1 NEAR POOR 6. 969, 6 36, 5 7. 665, 3 43, 8 TOTAL 19. 100, 9 100, 0 17. 484, 0 100, 0 Poverty Alleviation Program in Indonesia
Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase. . Poor People (%) Gini Ratio TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO 2004 -2011
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA: • • Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP, calculated annualy, districts level The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators HDI Indonesia, 1996 -2010 Life Expectancy By Province, 2009
Human Development Index SCATTER PLOT BETWEEN RGDP AND HDI BY DISTRICTS 2010 II I III IV Regional GDP
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (1) ISSUES SOURCE OF PREVIOUS DATA/SURVEY 1. POVERTY a. Macro Data: National Socioecono mic Survey (Susenas) 2. UNEMPLOYME NT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT Before 2011: Annual Survey, number of sample 68, 000 HH 280, 000 HH § Start 2011: quarterly (75, 000 HH per quarter). § Methodology improvement b. Micro Data: Poverty Census Methodology: scoring, proxi means test (PMT) Methodology: Povtar (Poverty Targetting) → Pop Census & Susenas National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) Before 2011: conducted every Feb and August, number of sample 68, 000 HH Start 2011: quarterly (75, 000 HH per quarter)
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (2) ISSUES SOURCE OF DATA/NAME OF SURVEY PREVIOUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 3. HDI NEW METHOD National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) & GDP Methodology: Old Method (Life expectancy at birth, Adult literacy rate, MYS, Consumption per capita, Arithmetic Mean) Methodology: New Method (Life expectancy at birth, Expected years of schooling, MYS, Consumption per capita, Geometric Mean) 4. SOCIAL PROTECTI ON INDEX Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) § Social Insurance Programs Included: Pensions, health insurance, insurance claimed § Social Assistance Programs Included: Unconditional cash transfer, subsidized rice, health insurance Pilot survey to include more variables
CHALLANGES 1. Poverty and HDI: a. The results obtained from new methodology will not be comparable with the previous results need to do backcasting b. The results using new method may change significantly compared to the results obtained from current methodology. It may create long debate need to socialize intensively the new poverty and HDI methods to data users. 2. Social Protection Index: a. The term of social protection is very broad. It is difficult to obtain the data because there is no centralized source for the required information. The information available from published reports is limited. b. Need socialization of the concept and definition of SP → all stakeholders have to have the same perception of SP.
THANK YOU TERIMA KASIH
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