BOARD OF TRUSTEES MEETING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAPACITY OPEN

BOARD OF TRUSTEES MEETING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS, CAPACITY & OPEN ENROLLMENT JANUARY 21, 2020

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION REPORT Each year, the District receives enrollment projection data from Tom Williams of Enrollment Projection Consultants (EPC). The current report is the 15 th consecutive one completed by EPC has been very accurate in its short term projections for the District. The District relies on enrollment projections to assist in calculating hiring needs, classroom needs, course needs and plan for future construction. Therefore, having such accurate projections is vital to our success.

ATTENDING VS. RESIDENT ENROLLMENT Enrollment data provided by EPC focuses on “resident” enrollment. Resident enrollment is based upon where students reside and the corresponding school for that area/attendance boundary. The data used by the District focuses on “attending” enrollment. Attending enrollment is based upon where the students actually attend school. Attending enrollment differs from resident enrollment because of inter and intra district transfers. These transfers are due to special programs, employee privilege, senior privilege and more.

DISTRICT RESIDENT ENROLLMENT As of 10 -15 -19, District resident enrollment was 10, 859 (Gr. 9 -12). * This was an increase of 10 students from 2018 -19. 11, 200 11, 100 11, 000 10, 931 10, 849 10, 859 10, 900 10, 742 10, 800 10, 700 10, 585 10, 570 10, 600 10, 514 10, 511 10, 500 10, 379 10, 400 10, 300 10, 200 10, 100 10, 233 10, 139 09 -10 10 -11 11 -12 12 -13 13 -14 14 -15 15 -16 16 -17 *This data does not include Inter District Transfer Students. 17 -18 18 -19 19 -20

RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2020 -21 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook District Total Actual 2019 -20 Proj. 2020 -21 1 -Yr. Change 2, 197 2, 436 2, 214 2, 424 1, 588 10, 859 2, 264 2, 416 2, 085 2, 359 1, 583 10, 707 67 -20 -129 -65 -5 -152 *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS: 2 YEARS (2021 -22) Site Actual Proj. 2 -Yr. 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021 -22 Change 2, 197 Homestead 2, 436 Monta Vista 2, 214 Cupertino 2, 424 Lynbrook 1, 588 District Total 10, 859 Fremont 2, 264 2, 416 2, 085 2, 359 1, 583 10, 707 2, 228 2, 349 1, 991 2, 328 1, 478 10, 374 31 -87 -223 -96 -110 -458 *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS: 5 YEARS (2024 -25) Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook District Total Actual 2019 -20 Proj. 2024 -25 5 -Yr. Change 2, 197 2, 436 2, 214 2, 424 1, 588 10, 859 2, 099 2, 085 1, 833 2, 136 1, 305 9, 458 -98 -351 -381 -288 -283 -1, 401 *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

SCHOOL RESIDENT ENROLLMENT* 2, 550 2, 450 2, 350 2, 250 2, 150 2, 404 2, 360 2, 100 2, 438 2, 349 2, 334 1, 850 1, 750 2, 047 1, 748 2, 432 2, 292 2, 424 2, 214 2, 197 2, 126 1, 973 2, 436 2, 202 2, 050 1, 950 2, 388 2, 373 2, 341 2, 370 2, 327 2, 440 2, 416 2, 349 2, 359 2, 264 2, 085 2, 328 2, 261 2, 185 2, 099 2, 200 2, 173 2, 142 1, 991 1, 981 1, 938 1, 886 1, 704 1, 639 1, 650 1, 624 1, 586 1, 588 1, 478 1, 450 Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino 2, 136 2, 099 2, 085 1, 833 1, 583 1, 550 1, 350 2, 264 1, 420 1, 363 Lynbrook 1, 305 1, 250 14 -15 15 -16 16 -17 17 -18 18 -19 19 -20 20 -21 21 -22 22 -23 23 -24 24 -25 *2020 -21 and beyond are projected enrollments. 2022 -23 & 2023 -24 are extrapolated totals.

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS – LONG TERM DATA 12 -Year Resident Enrollment Trends In High School Attendance Areas: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TK 0 0 0 11 35 27 28 32 25 35 K 252 239 254 240 253 222 220 202 187 177 184 219 172 1 248 285 268 296 293 279 254 264 236 197 207 214 244 2 343 273 297 303 338 317 307 274 283 267 231 223 236 3 316 360 303 321 322 361 323 321 287 298 284 257 224 LYNBROOK HIGH SCHOOL 4 5 6 7 8 367 348 407 418 403 336 387 373 423 417 376 340 406 393 429 340 394 385 424 396 333 353 429 410 423 358 364 383 447 425 376 385 377 381 447 327 377 400 389 388 339 335 376 409 387 299 349 363 377 406 309 303 361 363 378 289 324 320 364 361 277 301 345 323 375 9 450 410 420 436 426 450 444 440 382 391 434 401 375 10 467 444 414 430 432 439 451 442 440 376 389 435 402 11 451 468 445 401 432 437 439 447 442 441 373 385 434 12 463 443 452 439 397 415 422 419 440 431 428 365 377 Net change to 2019 compared to highest total since 2007 TK-12 4, 933 4, 858 4, 797 4, 805 4, 841 4, 897 4, 837 4, 725 4, 570 4, 400 4, 276 4, 182 4, 120 = -813 Source: Enrollment Projection Consultants Annual Enrollment Forecast Report 12/2019

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS – LONG TERM DATA 12 -Year Resident Enrollment Trends In High School Attendance Areas: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TK 0 0 0 36 55 74 56 57 70 57 K 491 458 467 492 455 436 410 348 391 367 354 348 371 1 534 526 515 521 537 494 486 472 406 424 391 375 388 2 571 540 549 542 541 550 511 518 487 429 457 441 378 MONTA VISTA HIGH SCHOOL 3 4 5 6 7 8 505 556 531 593 615 644 579 510 547 582 581 625 567 597 517 576 597 589 565 581 599 544 572 602 588 585 579 615 527 576 588 601 602 599 630 545 553 610 611 625 605 635 495 578 601 642 633 611 535 498 584 595 646 612 483 528 511 588 606 644 441 487 507 486 562 581 460 432 489 516 484 553 451 456 427 498 523 464 9 598 693 641 618 607 584 559 633 605 618 541 527 10 627 614 687 644 613 610 584 546 618 596 578 606 524 11 658 616 593 670 637 613 614 583 537 605 585 575 596 12 681 651 604 582 655 634 597 601 574 535 592 570 567 Net change to 2019 compared to highest total since 2007 TK-12 7, 604 7, 522 7, 499 7, 532 7, 515 7, 486 7, 436 7, 316 7, 162 6, 977 6, 696 6, 460 6, 227 = -1, 377 Source: Enrollment Projection Consultants Annual Enrollment Forecast Report 12/2019

LHS SUPPLEMENTAL SCHOOL ASSIGNMENT PROGRAM In 2015, the disparity in resident enrollments between Lynbrook and the other 4 district schools, began to grow. This prompted the creation of the Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC). The purpose of the CAC was to study the enrollment needs of FUHSD and to provide a report and findings to the FUHSD Board of Trustees. The result of the CAC recommendation was the Lynbrook Supplemental School Assignment Program (LSSAP), which allowed students in the Hyde Middle School Attendance area and transfer students enrolled at Miller and Mc. Auliffe Middle Schools to apply for a transfer to Lynbrook High School. The CAC continues to meet to monitor changes in enrollment and recently recommended a two year extension of this program, which the Board approved in December.

QUALIFIED LSSAP PROJECTIONS • At least 368 Students are Qualified to Participate in the LSSAP; Miller = 50, Hyde = 298 and Mc. Auliffe = 20 • Application Period: January 13 to Jan 23 at 3: 00 PM. • Application available online at www. fuhsd. org/enrollment • If the number of applications for students in the Hyde attendance area exceeds the 16 openings at Lynbrook High School, then a lottery will be held to determine those eligible for transfer • If needed, the Lottery will be held on Jan. 24 at 8 AM • All families will be notified via email of the acceptance or rejection of their application by Jan. 27, 2020.

DISTRICT ATTENDING ENROLLMENT As of 10 -15 -19, District attending enrollment was 10, 950 (Gr. 9 -12). * This was an increase of 43 students from 2018 -19. 11, 200 11, 100 11, 007 11, 000 10, 822 10, 900 10, 800 10, 725 10, 645 10, 700 10, 600 10, 950 10, 655 10, 481 10, 500 10, 351 10, 400 10, 300 10, 907 10, 235 10, 200 10, 100 09 -10 10 -11 11 -12 12 -13 13 -14 14 -15 15 -16 *This data does not include Non Public School Enrollments 16 -17 17 -18 18 -19 19 -20

ATTENDING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2020 -21 ATTENDING ENROLLMENT – 1 YEAR Site Actual 2019 -20 Proj. 2020 -21 1 -Yr Change Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook NPS & CDS District Total 2, 158 2, 422 2, 178 2, 255 1, 922 43 10, 978 2, 228 2, 401 2, 045 2, 185 1, 941 41 10, 842 70 -21 -133 -70 19 -2 -137

ATTENDING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2021 -22 ATTENDING ENROLLMENT – 2 YEAR Site Actual Proj. 2 -Yr 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021 -22 Change Fremont 2, 158 Homestead 2, 422 Monta Vista 2, 178 Cupertino 2, 255 Lynbrook 1, 922 NPS & CDS 43 District Total 10, 978 2, 228 2, 401 2, 045 2, 185 1, 941 41 10, 842 2, 190 2, 334 1, 959 2, 161 1, 831 41 10, 516 32 -88 -219 -94 -91 -2 -462 NPS = Non Public School (Sp. Ed. ) & CDS = Community Day School

SCHOOL ATTENDING ENROLLMENT* 2500 2404 2400 2353 2200 2100 2441 2397 2366 2303 1800 2273 2232 2, 268 2104 2030 1767 Fremont 2, 185 2, 190 2, 161 2, 045 1, 922 1824 2, 228 2, 178 2, 066 1959 1841 1700 2, 255 2, 158 2150 1962 2, 401 2, 334 2, 290 2322 2, 422 2358 2334 2000 1900 2, 424 1, 941 1, 851 1, 959 1, 831 1750 Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook 18 -19 19 -20 1600 14 -15 15 -16 16 -17 17 -18 20 -21 21 -22 *2019 -20 & 2020 -21 are Projected. Does not include Community Day School or Non Public School

SCHOOL CAPACITY Each year, the District conducts a school capacity calculation for the following school year. In general, school capacity is the number of students that can be enrolled in a school. The annual capacity review is needed due to the changing nature of school campuses and other factors that affect school capacity. These changes can be due to construction, change of use for a room(s), or changes in the assumptions used in the calculation. Large changes in educational capacity are usually the result of construction projects being completed. In the last few years, Cupertino, Monta Vista, Homestead and Fremont all completed construction projects that included new classrooms.

SCHOOL CAPACITY & CONSTRUCTION As noted earlier, construction projects can change school capacity. Construction projects can also make it difficult to calculate capacity while the projects are ongoing. Thanks to Measure CC, all classrooms in the district will be modernized over the next several years. This project will require entire wings of classrooms to be closed and then reopened when completed. Therefore, the District will not be creating a new Capacity Report for 2020 -21. Instead, the previous Capacity Report (2018 -19) and associated school capacities shall remain unchanged.

RECOMMENDATION: CAPACITY Based on the results of the 2018 -19 District Capacity Study, it is recommended that the Board of Trustees approve the capacity of each school for 2020 -21 to remain the same: School Capacity 20 -21 Cupertino 2, 566 Fremont 2, 127 Homestead 2, 295 Lynbrook 1, 803 Monta Vista 2, 410 Total 11, 201

CONSTRUCTION & NEEDED FLEXIBILITY The Measure CC classroom modernization plan is not yet fully completed and approved. The Bond Construction Team is working to create a plan that will minimize temporary housing expenses, while maintaining an adequate number of classrooms at each school. The modernization plan must be flexible to accommodate changes in enrollment and changes in construction timelines.

RECOMMENDATION Due to the ongoing classroom remodel project and the need for flexibility in the number of classrooms at each school, it is recommended that the Board of Trustees declare all schools closed for intra district open enrollment for the 2020 -21 school year. Please note that the Lynbrook Supplemental School Assignment Program (LSSAP) will continue next year, as approved by the Board and is not affected by the above recommendation.