BMKG Indonesia Fire Danger Rating System Progress and
BMKG Indonesia Fire Danger Rating System: Progress and Product Update Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) September 2013
FDRS Indonesia : Progress of Operational n n n Starting on 1999, BMKG has been providing Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) information using methods adopted from Canadian Forest Services (CFS) on daily basis. Hourly synoptic data from all BMKG’s meteorological stations (include WMO Basic Stations) is used as FDRS input for analysis and NWP output of ARPEGE model (Meteo France) as input for 48 -hour prediction. which is updated daily at 16. 15 LST. Related to the extension of rainfall estimation for monitoring of high risk areas, particularly in Kalimantan, on FY 2008 BMKG has starting to establish collaboration assessment with IRI, Columbia University-USA on the utilization of satellite rainfall estimates to support the development of early warning and response for fires in
FDRS Indonesia : Progress of Operational n n n Since May, 2013 BMKG issued FDRS forecast based on WRF model (forecast up to 168 -hours/7 -days) and updated in daily basis higher forecast accuracy achieved Hotspot monitoring with MODIS data (of Aqua-Terra satellite) has been in operation since 2010 Running Hy. Split model for smoke trajectory (cooperation BMKG Ina – NOAA USA) has been in operation since 2009.
MODELLING FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (FDRS) BASED ON REALTIME DATA and NUMERICAL MODEL Weather parameter Moisture Codes Temperature Relative Humidity Wind speed Rainfall Temperature Relative Humidity Rainfall Wind speed Wetness level of upper soil Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) Wetness level of lower soil Duff Moisture Code (DMC) Initial Spread Index (ISI) Fire Behaviour Indices Temperature Rainfall Level of Drought Code (DC) Buildup Index (BUI) Fire Weather Index (FWI) (0 to 13)
MODELLING FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (FDRS) BASED ON NWP DATA Weather Parameter from NWP (ARPEGE Model) Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed & Direction Rainfall Level of Wetness at Upper Soils Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) Fire potential index Fire Weather Index (FWI) N D OL SIO R VE
MODELLING FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (FDRS) BASED ON REALTIME DATA AND PREDICTION N D OL FDRS SIO R VE Real Time Forecast Synotic Data Input (CMSS) Data Input from NWP Decode Data MS. Visual Basic Input Ms. Acces Data Base Run Arc View Real Time FDRS Map Run SFMS (Spatial Fire Management System) FDRS Forecast Map (up to 2 days / 48 -hours)
MODELLING FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (FDRS) BASED ON REALTIME DATA AND PREDICTION N WEATHER PARAMETER FROM OBSERVATION DATA (H-1) INITIAL CONDITION Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed & Direction Rainfall W NE SIO R VE WEATHER PARAMETER FROM WRF-MODEL Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed & Direction Rainfall Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) & Fire Weather Index (FWI) Level of Wetness at Upper Soils Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) Fire potential index Fire Weather Index (FWI)
MODELLING FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (FDRS) BASED ON REALTIME DATA AND PREDICTION N E V W FDRS IO RS NE Prakiraan Initial Value Unsur cuaca Observasi (H-1) Input Data WRF Decode Data MS. Visual Basic Input Ms. Acces Data Base Run Arc View Real Time FDRS Map Run SFMS (Spatial Fire Management System) FDRS Forecast Map (up to 7 -days / 168 -hours)
BMKG LATEST PRODUCTS UPDATE : - RAINFALL & WIND FORECAST - FDRS 22 – 28 SEPTEMBER 2013
Latest satellite image (22 Sep 2013 – 23 UTC)
Weekly Cumulative Rainfall Forecast (21 -28 Sep 2013)
Rainfall Forecast (22 – 25 September 2013)
Rainfall Forecast (26 – 28 September 2013)
Surface Wind Forecast (22 Sep 2013)
Surface Wind Forecast (23 Sep 2013)
FDRS OBSERVASI WILAYAH ASEAN 22 SEPTEMBER 2013 EXPECTED HIGH RISK OF FOREST FIRE : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Aceh, North Sumatera, Riau, West Sumatera, Jambi, Bengkulu, South Sumatera, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Kaltim, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South-West Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku and Papua.
FDRS OBSERVASI WILAYAH ASEAN 22 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potential of fires (if occurred) very difficult to be controlled : North Sumatra, Belitung, West Kalimantan, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, North Sulawesi, South-east Sulawesi and Southeast Maluku.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 22 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku Utara, Papua Barat dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 22 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, NTT dan Papua bagian Selatan.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 23 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku Utara, Papua Barat dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 23 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jateng, Jatim, NTT, Papua bagian Selatan dan Sulsel
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 24 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku Utara, Papua Barat dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 24 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, NTT dan Sulsel
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 25 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku Utara, Papua Barat dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 25 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, Kalsel, Kalteng dan Sulsel
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 26 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku Utara, Papua Barat dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 26 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, NTT, Kalsel dan Sulsel
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 27 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Sumut, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku, dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 27 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, NTT, Kalsel dan Sulsel
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 28 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kemudahan kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT MUDAH” terdapat di : Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Filipina, Aceh, Riau, Sumbar, Jambi, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Jabar, Jateng, DI Yogyakarta, Jatim, Bali, NTB, NTT, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulbar, Sulsel, Sultra, Maluku dan Papua.
FDRS PRAKIRAAN WILAYAH ASEAN 28 SEPTEMBER 2013 Potensi kesulitan pengendalian kebakaran hutan dengan peluang “SANGAT SULIT” tidak ada sedangkan dengan peluang “SULIT” terdapat di provinsi : Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, NTT dan Sulsel
BMKG’s link of products : n n n Update of Indonesia FDRS forecast products (up to 7 -days) for ASEAN region, Indonesia and Sumatra-Kalimantan provincial domains, available online at http: //meteo. bmkg. go. id/peringatan/kebakaranhu tan/ina Near-realtime satellite products (include hotspot monitoring with MODIS), available at http: //satelit. bmkg. go. id/bmkg/ BMKG-NOAA Hysplit model products can be accessed at http: //www. bmkg. go. id/BMKG_Pusat/Klimatologi/ Informasi_Kebakaran_Hutan. bmkg
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