BLACK SEA ENERGY POLICY CONFERENCE Session B 5

BLACK SEA ENERGY POLICY CONFERENCE Session B 5: Climate Change Challenges CAN WE MEET THE CHALLENGE ? a presentation by Ioannis Palaiokrassas Vice-President of ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage Former E. U. Commissioner for the Environment Athens 9 October 2008 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 1

How big is the challenge n The Stern Review (2006) and the EU Green Paper on Climate Change (2007) give an alarming picture § Annual costs of climate change = 5% of world GDP § More than 1 billion refugees from flooded areas § Temperature rise up to 5, 5 C° and fall in precipitation up to 60% in Europe by 2100 More recent data from IPCC are even more alarming n The US Corps of Engineers checks thousands of bridges and ports that will be flooded n 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 2

A double set of challenges n How can we arrest and then reverse climate change? § We must confess that only one area - global warming - has been researched in depth § and we only have the Kyoto protocol to work with n How can we mitigate the impact from climate change? § Some impacts, e. g. change in temperatures, precipitation, melting of icecap, rise in sea levels, have been calculated § Others, such as the change of ocean currents, impacts on ecosystems, animal and human life need more research 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 3

Racing against time n One thing is certain: we are running against time § to complete our knowledge of the extent and the force of the phenomenon § to act globally in order to avoid the worse n Therefore we have to act fast, on the basis of what we know now, in three areas: 1. To achieve low-energy, low-carbon economies 2. To modify infrastructures that will be affected 3. To prepare for the unavoidable large population movements 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 4

The key is energy Because this is the only independent variable within the control of humanity n If we manage it correctly, the other two crises may be curtailed or even avoided n It is manageable in two ways: n 1. By reducing energy waste, especially in the developed world 2. By developing carbon free forms of energy, especially from renewable sources with mild environmental impacts 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 5

Low energy societies n Current model of life goes back to the industrial revolution and is based on: § cheap energy, with negative impacts on humans, the environment and global natural equilibria § mass production and consumption hinged on capital, ignoring man and nature § the cult of mobility n It represents a dinosaur in our knowledge society, even in simple survival terms § Societies must be urgently reformed towards a low energy, lean consumption, mass mobility model § Otherwise humanity is threatened with extinction 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 6

A twofold plan of action n Reducing energy intensity and waste § Current high energy intensity of developed nations can be halved § Developing nations can decouple growth from energy waste n Turning to Renewable Energy Sources § The negative impacts of most R. E. S. are under 5% of those of solid fuels § Questions about nuclear and carbon capture and storage (C. C. S. ) 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 7

Energy saving by 2050 n Developed world Saving Weighted per sector Average* Existing buildings: better insulation 25% 7% New buildings: bioclimatic design & systems 50% 9% Industrial production (adaptation & innovation) 40% 12% Transport: switch to mass transit & eco-cars 50% 14% TOTAL 42% Sector *weighted according to sector share in energy consumption n Developing world As most of the developing nations double the size of their economy every 9 years, rates of saving are much higher (50 -60%), since new technology applies to greater stocks 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 8

Decoupling energy and growth These savings are based on existing technology and consumer culture. They can be greatly increased by technology development and cultural change. n For example: § a breakthrough in fuel cells can eliminate n the use of gasoline in cars § the reinstatement of the returnable bottle can reduce plastic consumption 7 times, with enormous energy savings 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 9

Renewable Energy Sources At the moment RES are mainly hydro, wind and solar. The source of nuclear energy is not renewable, problems of safety apart. n Wave, tidal and geothermal (specially shallow geothermy) are largely untapped. n Further application of above RES could almost eliminate electricity use for lighting, heating and cooling with double savings, due to generation and distribution losses. n All RES also enable decentralised power systems. THEY ARE A TRIPLE WIN CASE, but they are not entirely free of environmental impacts. (landscape, biodiversity, footprint) n 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 10

Nuclear, biofuels and CCS n Nuclear § Waste disposal problem still unsolved and this is a great risk. § Operational safety of new reactors is OK. § Fusion is a very distant hope. Biofuels have so many negative impacts that they should be dismissed n Carbon Capture and Storage § If cheap, perpetuates the problem. If costly, will n not solve it. § Great safety risks on account of leaks and impacts on global equilibria 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 11

Concluding remarks Decoupling growth from energy and energy from CO 2 are really vital targets. n Carbon and hydrocarbon uses are far too many to be entirely replaced and in any case must be saved for future. Price levels must remain high. n RES must be encouraged but cannot grow fast enough. What will fill the temporary gap? Nuclear? Coal? n Black Sea region is rich in all. MUST DEVELOP ITS OWN PLAN AND MECHANISMS on an integrated basis. n 9. 10. 2007 Ioannis Palaiokrassas 12