Biomass Production Decision Making Tools and Planning Robert

Biomass Production Decision Making Tools and Planning Robert P. Anex Iowa State University

U. S. Administration Biofuel Goals l l 35 billion gallons by 2017 60 billion gallons by 2030 U. S. petroleum imports 181 billion gallons 2

US Biomass inventory = 1. 3 billion tons Corn stover 19. 9% Wheat straw 6. 1% Soy 6. 2% Crop residues 7. 6% Grains 5. 2% Perennial crops 35. 2% Manure 4. 1% Urban waste 2. 9% Forest 12. 8% From: Billion Ton Vision, DOE & USDA 2005 3

What farmers grow now… 4

1 + Billion tons per year? The most revolutionary transformation of the landscape in a century… l l The Industrial Revolution l Increased worker productivity, urban migration The Petroleum Revolution l Cheap energy, agricultural mechanization, synthetic fertilizers 5 What will motivate the Bioeconomy Revolution?

Biomass Planning Tools l Biomass Supply and Logistics l l Life-cycle energy and emissions l l Integrated Biomass Supply and Logistics (IBSAL) model. l Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. Sokhansanj Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS) l Corn grain-based ethanol systems l University of Nebraska, K. Cassman Farm enterprise modeling l I-FARM l Iowa State University, Robert Anex l Pennsylvania State University, Tom Richard 6

Farmer decisions depend on… l l l Experience – Tradition, training, technical assistance Ability – Time, labor, management Equipment – Owned, leased, contracted Profit – Income, expenses, subsidies Risk – weather, markets, insurance Environment – Recreation, sustainability, stewardship 7

The I-FARM decision tool l l l Web-based GIS interface Menu driven Database algorithms Data transparency User adjustable Free http: //i-farmtools. org 8

A brief tour… 9

On-line tutorials 10

Input farm site and characteristics 11

GIS Interface 12

Crop management and yield 13

Databases and references 14

Whole farm production 15

Crop revenue 16

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Farm nutrient balance 18

Soil Erosion 19

Soil Erosion 20

Government crop programs 21

Government Payments 22

Labor, services, loans, etc. 23

One bottom line 24

Comparative analysis 25

Under Development … Biomass production risk management 26

Under Development … Biomass production risk management Spatially-explicit prediction of stochastic performance. For example: • yield • return • soil loss Expected Yield Low High 27

Large-scale biofuel production will require dramatic changes in the agricultural system New tools are needed to allow land managers and policy makers to “reimagine” an agricultural system that meets food, feed and fuel needs in an economically and environmentally sustainable way. 28

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