Bevlkerungsdynamik Versorgungssysteme aus Sicht der Syndromanalyse Matthias K

Bevölkerungsdynamik & Versorgungssysteme aus Sicht der Syndromanalyse Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Abt. Integrierte Systemanalyse Syndromkonzept: typische Muster - Diagnose des derzeitigen Globalen Wandels Prognose und Handlungsoptionen Syndrome und deren Bezug zu Bevölkerungsdynamik und Versorgungssystem Sahel-Syndrom: Bäuerliche Armut, mangelnde Entwicklung der Ressourcenproduktivität und Landflucht Favela-Syndrom: Unkontrolliertes Stadtwachstum durch Migation Urban Sprawl-Syndrom: Zersiedelung der Landschaft zu Lasten des Gemeinwohls Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Syndrome Approach An Intermediate Complexity Analysis of Global Change Typical Functional Patterns Matthias K. B. Lüdeke www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Global Distribution of Selected Syndromes Based on 60 indicators with global coverage. Uncharted regions: absence of selected Syndromes or data gaps. Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke Lüdeke/Petschel-Held/Schellnhuber 2004, Gaia 1/04

Syndromliste: typische Muster problematischen Globalen Wandels Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Eng mit Bevölkerungsdynamik verknüpfte Syndrome Sahel Natürliches Bevölkerungswachtum auf dem Land, armutsgetriebene Migration in die Städte - Änderung der Zusammensetzung der ländlichen Bevölkerung mit Auswirkungen auf die landwirtschaftliche Produktivität Favela Rapide und ungeplante Urbanisierung in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern, durch Landflucht und natürliches Bevölkerungswachstum getrieben Urban Spawl Migrationbewegung von dichter besiedelten Innenstadten in die Stadtperipherie und den ländlichen Raum Grüne Revolution Als Antwort auf teils bevölkerungswachstumsbedingte Nahrungsmittelknappheit Einsatz unangepaßter Agrartechnologie. Rein angebotsorientes Programm, das die ländliche Entwicklung vernachlässigt Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Symptomsammlung Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Sahel Syndrome Environmental degradation by rural-poverty driven overexploitation of marginal sites Vicious Circle: Impoverishment Extension of Agriculture Soil degradation Reduction of Yield Impoverishment Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Syndromspezifisches Beziehungsgeflecht des Sahel. Syndroms Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Intensitätsmaß für das Sahel-Syndrom (Daten aus dem Zeitraum 1985 -1992) Typische dynamische Eigenschaften des Syndroms: N Landwirtschaftliche Aktivität B Status der Bodendegradation A Anzahl der ländlichen Armen Kausalbeziehungen des Syndromkerns Für eine lineare Approximation für fi Evaluierung dieser Bedingung führt zum Maß für den Teufelskreis: Stärke des Teufelskreis: Intensität des Sahel-Syndroms: Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Globale Intensität des Sahel Syndroms Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Sahel Syndrome in NE-Brazil: A Qualitative Model Choices amongst livelihood and management options: qoff-farm vs. on-farm labour qconsumption vs. investment in resource quality Interaction of these choices with resource quality: qoveruse of resource resulting in degradation and potential yield losses qincome-dependent possibility of resource improvement Socio-econimc and natural conditions: qproducer prices, existence and accessibility of good land qwages, existence and accessibility of off-farm labour Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

QDE for Land-Use Change Dynamics in NE-Brazil Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Sahel Syndrome in NE-Brazil: Qualitative Trajectories Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Sahel Syndrome in NE-Brazil: Present Dynamic State Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Sahel Syndrome in NE-Brazil: Adapted Policies Depending on the present dynamic state different policy options appear to be promising: For states I and III (red and green regions): enable access to productive lands/ irrigation facilities/ technical inputs (this accelerates I II and impedes III IV) For states II and IV (yellow and brown regions): increase and warrant producer prices/ improve market integration (this accelerates II III and impedes IV I ) Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Favela Syndrome Environmental degradation by unplanned urbanisation - urban growth with insufficient infrastructure Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Favela Syndrome Environmental degradation by unplanned urbanisation - urban growth with insufficient infrastructure Examples: • Shanty-Towns; Favelas; Squatters, etc. • Landslides within human settlements Aspects of Non-Sustainability: Health stress by environmental degradation (air and water pollution, landslides, etc. ) Water pollution Shortening of freshwater Deposition and accumulation of waste Urbanisation in Developing Countries Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Favela Syndrome Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

The Urban Sprawl Syndrome • • Disproportional increase in public costs (infrastructure, schools, sewerage) Increase of pollution and energy consumption can be attributed in part to urban sprawl Increased land consumption of valuable land, either socially or ecologically / deterioration of landscapes and ecosystem fragmentation. Social exclusion (out-ofsight-out-of-mind) Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Actor classes: Leipzig case Moving actors: • 1. middle income households • 2. high income households • 3. Industry/ businesses • 4. large retail/ leisure centres Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Attractivities: Leipzig P 1 P 2 Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke P 3 P 4

Attractivity functions: P 1 Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Attractivity functions: P 2 Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Attractivity functions: P 3 Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Attractivity functions: P 4 Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Aggregated attractivity matrix Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Observed qualitative dynamics Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Modelled endogenous dynamics Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Model modification: exogenous decreasing influence on A 1& A 2 P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 time A 1 o - o + - A 2 o + o o - A 3 o o + o o A 4 o o + o o Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Modelled non-autonomous dynamics Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Future development Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Avoiding future „re-suburbanisation“ by P 2 Model calculations show that: influencing the attractivities exogenously will not guarantee further re-urbanisation the only way is to modify the interaction between the actor classes (i. e. the attractivity matrix) Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke

Avoiding future „re-suburbanisation“ by P 2 If the interaction characteristics of P 1 with P 2 and P 4 change in the following way: • The balance between image (+) and price (-) effects for P 1 under increasing P 2 becomes positive or at least neutral (o) • The positive effect of the establishment of new retail/leisure parks (P 4) becomes insignificant for the attractivity of the periphery the trend of residential re-urbanisation is stabilized. Matthias K. B. Lüdeke, www. pik-potsdam/~luedeke