Bericht des Generalsekretrs Nitin Desai zum World Summit

Bericht des Generalsekretärs Nitin Desai zum World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002 http: //www. johannesburgsummit. org Datei: WS 2002_criticaltrends_1408. pdf

1. Population, Poverty and Inequality 2. Food and Agriculture 3. Fresh Water 4. Forests ( Biodiversity ) 5. Health and Hygiene 6. Energy and Climate (siehe Datei V 00 neu_Energie_Klimawandel. ppt)

1. Population, Poverty and Inequality

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 4

Population Density Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 4

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 5

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 6

Income poverty is declining in Asia and Latin America • Definition of „poverty“ is based on an income threshold of $1 per day • In the 1990 s, the poverty rate in developing countries declined from 29 % of the population to 23 % the total number of people (world) living in poverty declined slightly from about 1. 3 billion to 1. 2 billion. • The poverty rate is highest in sub-Saharan Africa (almost 50% of the population). • A large majority of the world’s people living in poverty are in Asia, particularly in rural areas. • Most of the decline in the poverty rate in the 1990 s has been in East Asia. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 6

Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 6

Hunger is slowly declining in all regions • Today, almost 800 million people in developing countries are chronically undernourished, since 1990: a reduction of over 40 million since 1970: a significant reduction of over 150 million • During the 1990 s, hunger declined in all regions, even where per capita income fell, due in part to increasing global food production and declining trend in food prices. • Millenium Declaration Goal: halving, by 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Regional trends indicate that East Asia and Latin America are on track while sub-Saharan Africa is falling well short of the goal. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 6

Inequality is an obstacle to sustainable development Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 7

Standard of living: Asian countries reduced the gap in standards of living with developed countries through: and a rapid economic growth decline in the rate of population growth. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 7

2. Food and Agriculture

Food production and consumption are increasing • projected (2030) in developing countries : increasing in food production and imports. • Declining food prices have generally benefited consumers and improved nutrition, even in countries where incomes have declined. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 8

Potential to expand crop production is limited Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 8

Potential to expand crop production is limited • About 11 per cent of the world’s land surface is used in crop production, including cultivated land under permanent crops. • In South Asia, East Asia and Europe, most land is already used for agriculture and there is little scope for expansion in agricultural land or in irrigation. • In developing Asia, increasing demand for food resulting from economic development and population growth will need to be met by increasing yields with existing water resources and by increasing imports. • In West Asia and North Africa, increasing agricultural production is constrained by limited water resources, and imports are expected to increase to meet growing demand. • In Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, there is still potential for expansion of agricultural land as well as for increased productivity. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 8

Agricultural trade is increasing: Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 9

Agricultural trade is increasing: • In most of the developing world, food imports have been growing, as demand has increased faster than production. Net imports of grain in developing regions increased from 39 [Mt] of grain in the mid-1970 s to 107 [Mt] in the mid-1990 s, or from 4 % of their total grain consumption to 10 %. The historical developing country surplus in agricultural trade has recently turned into a deficit of 2. 5 G$. • The agricultural trade deficit of developing countries is expected to increase as consumption continues to grow more rapidly than production. • The greatest increase in imports is expected in countries where there is little unused agricultural land or water resources, articular, North Africa, West Asia and East Asia. • It is expected that the growing demand for imports can be met by increased production and exports from developed country exporters, in particular North America and the European Union. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p. 9

3. Fresh Water Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 10

Agriculture dominates global water use: Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 10

Industrial water use increases with development: Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 10

Aquaculture is expanding to meet growing demand for fish Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 10

Nearly half of the world‘s people will experience water shortages by 2025 Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 10

4. Forests ( Biodiversity ) Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

World’s forested area continues to decline: Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

Agricultural expansion is the main cause of deforestation Change in Tropical Forest fallow =Brache shrub = Strauch, Busch Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

Protected areas are increasing in all regions Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 13

5. Health and Hygiene Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 18

Most deaths in the least developed countries are readily preventable Communicable= übertragbar, amsteckend Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 18

Most deaths in the least developed countries are readily preventable In developed countries, illness and death are primarily due to non-communicable diseases, especially heart disease and cancer, which strike primarily in old age. In sub-Saharan Africa and the least developed countries, disease and death—often in childhood— mainly due to communicable, environment-related diseases. Most common are : • diarrhoeal diseases due to lack of clean water and sanitation facilities, and • respiratory infections due to indoor air pollution. These diseases are readily preventable through simple and inexpensive technologies. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 18

**5_1 Health and Water

**5_1 Health and Water 1 GPeople still lack access to safe water Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

xx 5_1 Health and Water 1 GPeople still lack access to safe water 2, 5 GPeople still lack adequate sanitation facilities ( mostly in rural Asia and Africa ) Improved access to safe water improves health, particularly for children. and gives more time and energy for more productive purposes including education. In rural Asia and Africa, women on average walk about 6 km for water. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 18

xx 5_1 Health and Water Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

xx 5_1 Health and Water Investment in Water Supply: During the 1990 s, in Africa, Asia and Latin America, some 15 G$ /a was invested water supply and sanitation: over about 12 G$/a was invested in drinking water supply, and 3 G$/a in sanitation. The investments were largely concentrated in urban areas, although the great majority of people without access to safe drinking water live in rural areas. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

Progress is being made towards targets Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 19

Progress is being made towards targets: 1. Goal : 50 per cent reduction in child mortality due to diarrhoeal diseases, (adopted in 1990 at World Summit for Children) The number of children under five who die each year from diarrhoeal diseases due to contaminated water and food, poor hygiene and inadequate sanitation is estimated to have fallen from 4. 6 million in 1980 to 3. 3 million in 1990 and 1. 7 million in 1999. Contributing factors for achieving this goal have been: better water supply and sanitation, increasing use of oral rehydration therapy (ort), and better nutrition, including breastfeeding of infants. 2. Goal : The General Assembly, in its Millennium Declaration, resolved to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of people who are unable to reach or to afford safe drinking water. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 19

Malaria - the main water related illness Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 19

xx 5_1 Health and Water Malaria is increasing in Africa • About 300 million people suffer each year from acute malaria. • About 1 million people die each year of malaria, mostly children in Africa. • Malaria deaths in Africa have been rising since the 1980 s primarily due to the declining effectiveness of the anti-malarial medication chloroquine. In addition, development of dams and irrigation systems, deforestation and global warming are favouring the development and spread of malaria-carrying mosquitoes. • Malaria is estimated to reduce the economic growth of African countries by more than -1 % /a , amounting to economic losses of about 12 G$12 /a. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

Zum Vergleich: Aids is undermining development in Africa In sub-Saharan Africa : Aids is now , • by far the leading cause of death • reducing life expectancy by 15 a, to 47 years. • predominantly strikes young adults, leaving millions of orphans. Economic growth in the countries most affected may be reduced by 1– 2 % or more. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 5

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution Indoor air pollution is a major killer A great majority of the deaths are among children in developing countries who die of acute respiratory infections. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 20

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution More than 3 million deaths each year are caused by air pollution, mostly due to particulate matter. A great majority of the deaths are among children in developing countries. Children die of acute respiratory infections due to indoor air pollution resulting from burning fuelwood, crop residues or animal dung for cooking and heating. Yet most pollution control efforts and expenditures address outdoor air pollution in developed countries. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution Increase of air pollution in the early phase of industrialisation Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

**5_2 Health and Air Pollution • Cities in the early phases of industrialization and urbanization experience increases in air pollution largely as a result of fossil fuel combustion by industry and motor vehicles without emissions controls. • Currently, in most large cities in the developing world, airborne particulate levels are five times higher than in developed countries. • As standards of living increase, improving air quality becomes a priority, and emission control measures are established and enforced, bringing down levels of particulates and sulphur dioxide (SO 2). Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

Internet Quellen Population: www. un. org/population www. un. org/popin. Energy and Climate: www. eia. doe. gov Poverty: www. worldbank. org/poverty www. ifad. org. (International Fund for Agricultural Development) www. unicef. org. www. undp. org (Human Development Report) Food, Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries: www. fao. org (Food and Agriculture Organization=FAO ) United States Energy Information Administration doe= Department of Energy www. ipcc. ch Health: www. who. int www. unaids. org. Environment and Natural Resources: www. unep. org www. wri. org (World resources Institute) Freshwater: www. worldwatercouncil. org/vision. shtml. Quelle: UN Report „Global Change - Global Opportunity“, World Summit 2002, Johannesburg, p 12

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