Benefits of Chronological Optimization in LongTerm Planning for

Benefits of Chronological Optimization in Long-Term Planning for Electricity Markets using PLEXOS® Simulation Software 基于PLEXOS®仿真软件的电力市场长期规划优化 Charles I. Nweke, Frank Leanez, Glenn R. Drayton, and Mohan Kolhe

Energy Exemplar Pty Ltd 公司简介 About the company • PLEXOS® software development is performed by Energy Exemplar in its Adelaide, Australia office. • Energy Exemplar 公司位于澳大 利亚南澳首府阿德莱德。 • Energy Exemplar provides local distribution, support, data and consulting services globally. PLEXOS® is also available for Research purposes. • 同时为全球客户提供技术支持， 数据分析和咨询服务. PLEXOS® 软件也可以被用于科研用途。 2

Motivation: Study Objectives 本文研究对象 • Renewable and non-conventional resources introduce uncertainty>require back-up from traditional thermal generation. • 作为传统能源的替代品，新能源和可再生能源的发展带来了机遇。 • Along with high penetration levels, the following security-related questions arise: – What technology can be replaced? 什么样的能源形势可以被替代？ – What technology has to remain? 什么样的能源形势可以继续保留？ • How simulation models can provide answers? 系统仿真模型如何来 解决这些问题？ 3

Study Objectives 本文研究对象 Challenges for Planning Tools: 对于规划 具的挑战 • Traditional approaches: 1. 2. 3. Heuristic methods/solutions 启发式算法 Decoupling investment and production models 解耦处理投资分析 和产能分析 Mathematical optimization: Use of Load-Duration-Curve (LDC) 数 学优化方法：负载持续曲线 • Drawbacks: 1. 2. 3. Sub-optimal solutions 次佳解，非最优解 System-specific: Hard to modify and implement 系统参数很难调 整 LDC ‘breaks’ the chronology 负载持续曲线有可能打乱年代序列 4

Approach 实现方法 Introduce Chronology: • Mathematical optimization: – Co-optimize investment and production costs 投资和产能优化同时进行 • Introduce thermal generation inter-temporal constraints: 引入下列约束条件 – Minimum stable levels 最小稳定值 – Effect of start-up/shutdown costs 开关机成本 – Min Up/Down times 最小开机关机时间 • The challenge: Are we there yet? – Use a real-sized South Australian detailed system 本文中南澳电网模 型被用来做验证分析 5

Approach 实现方法 Slicing the horizon into periods (blocks) 整个仿真周期阶段化 Adjust best block fit possible using least-square 用最小二 乘法来分别确定最优的时 间跨度 Shape of the annual electricity consumption of SA 南澳洲年用电量图 LDC Approach: Capture peak (capacity adequacy) but everything has been ‘moved’ （LDC方法结果） Chronological Approach: Capture peak and keeps most relevant time-dependant variations （年代表法结果） 6

Simulation Phases 仿真阶段 New Builds/Retirements Maintenance Schedule Operating Policies LT Plan – Optimal investment PASA – Optimal reserve share MT – Resource Allocation ST – Chronological Unit Commitment Detailed Chronological Operation 7

Results 结果分析 Chronological vs LDC 8

Results 结果分析 Chronological vs LDC • OCGT investments are promoted in chronological simulations over usage of old technology (Coal) • LDC fail to capture Coal retirements-> Wind variability is mitigated by Coal • Higher wind share (specially in late years) can lead to substantially higher pollution costs 9

Conclusions 结论 Chronological vs LDC 方法比较 • Results from chronologically modelling load in LT planning have shown promising signs that should bring about more apprehension towards traditional methods, and decisionsupport tools while showing less concern for speed of executions given the magnitude of possible future savings that could be gained for a region. • In this era when ignoring environmental constraints is hardly an option in energy planning, decision-making can be better guided towards more appropriate choices in investment. • Locations where wind and other intermittent sources are expected to make-up significant shares in the foreseeable future such as in China and parts of Europe are likely to benefit the most from LT modelling using chronological optimization. 10

Energy Exemplar Pty Ltd 公司产品介绍 About PLEXOS ® PLEXOS® is a proven simulation tool that uses cuttingedge data handling, mathematical programming, and stochastic optimisation techniques to provide a robust analytical framework for power market analysis. PLEXOS® meets the demands of power market participants, regulators, and analysts alike with a comprehensive range of capabilities. • Since its release in 2000, PLEXOS® has emerged as the worldwide simulation tool of choice and is now used in every region of the world, by many of the worlds largest utilities and system operators: • PLEXOS® has featured in filings to the US FERC. • PLEXOS® was selected by the Irish regulator as the endorsed market simulator for the Irish SEM. • In 2010, PLEXOS® installations worldwide passed 200. 11

Analysis tools in PLEXOS®提供的分析 具 What can you do with PLEXOS®? Capacity Expansion Planning Market Analysis Optimal Generation and Transmission Expansion Load (wind) forecast Resource Price Forecast allocation Large Hydro Storage Decomposition Transmission Analysis Perfect Competition Uplift mechanisms Portfolio Optimization LRMC Recovery Algorithm Nash-Cournot Competition Shadow Pricing (Bertrand game) N-x Contingency Analysis Security Constrained Unit Commitment Combined Heat and Power Locational Marginal Price Decomposition Fuel Markets External Energy, Ancillary Services and Capacity 12

Where is it used? 客户分布 Thanks for attending Tel: +61 8 8342 9616 Email: info@energyexemplar. com 13 Road 3/ 154 -160 Prospect, Adelaide, SA 5082 Australia