Benefits and Impacts of AMDAR Data Steve Stringer
Benefits and Impacts of AMDAR Data Steve Stringer E-AMDAR Programme Manager WMO Region VI WIGOS-AMDAR Workshop Minsk, Belarus 2 nd-3 rd October 2018
Content WMO 1. 2. 3. 4. Why AMDAR is needed? Benefits to Meteorology Benefits and Application to Meteorology Benefits to Aviation
WHY AMDAR IS NEEDED
WMO Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay - AMDAR WMO AMDAR Observing System is comprised of aircraft-based observing systems which derive meteorological data from an aircraft platform according to WMO standards and specifications using predominantly innate sensors and systems. Supports weather services to aviation and all WMO Application Areas
AMDAR – Vertical Profiles • Critical component of AMDAR is that obs. made on ascent and descent vertical profiles • Provide similar quality and utility as radiosondes – but at higher temporal frequency
AMDAR Supplements Upper-Air Programs • • • Radiosonde program – Expsensive – Resolution not adequate to support modern applications. – Radiosonde program has deteriorated and shows no sign of improving. Satellites – Good coverage (oceans) – Poor accuracy and vertical resolution Regional Models run much more frequently (hourly in some cases) do not have radiosondes as a source of in situ observational data input AMDAR provides benefits of radiosondes to meteorology – but at fraction of cost. ($300 cf < $5) AMDAR offers source of reliable, highquality, cheap upper air data.
BENEFITS TO METEOROLOGY
Benefits of AMDAR - Meteorology ▪ For Northern Hemisphere, AMDAR data has positive impact on all forecasts up to 48 hours – for Global NWP ▪ The impacts were largest in the first day, with 12 -h temperature forecasts errors reduced by 15 -20%. ▪ The improvements were most pronounced near the primary flight levels between 200 and 300 h. Pa and extending downward to 500 h. Pa. ▪ In general, AMDAR data had greater relative influence on temperature forecasts than wind forecasts (especially in the first forecast day). Courtesy of ECMWF Kelly
Benefits of AMDAR - Meteorology • NWP is critical to modern forecasting inc. Aviation. • Aircraft-based obs. 3 rd to satellite and radiosondes for impact & error reduction in NWP. • AMDAR has even greater impact on higher resolution NWP. • Impact in data sparse areas will be even greater!
Benefits of AMDAR - Meteorology Addition of LATAM: • Comparison of Global AMDAR data coverage for 24 hours on 20 Sept. 2016 (top) and 20 Sept. 2017 (bottom). • Sub-area used to evaluate impact of increased South American observations is outlined. • Note the substantial increase in data density over South America and along Northern Hemisphere oceanic routes.
Benefits of AMDAR - Meteorology Addition of LATAM: • • • Changes in impacts on global forecasts of 13 major types of observations used in the NAVGEM NWP system during Nov. 2016 and Nov. 2017. +ve % indicating increased error reduction in short-range forecasts. Note that the AIRCRAFT category includes both AMDAR and AIREP data with the small amount of AIREP data providing a negligible impact of only 0. 1%.
AMDAR Data & Verification of Forecast Products WMO • Radiosonde data usually available once or twice per day • AMDAR data frequently available – often one or more vertical profile per hour. • AMDAR data offer the opportunity to the forecaster of frequent updating or verification of the NWP and derived products. • The resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from the high frequency of AMDAR data.
AMDAR data in Climate Applications WMO • • • More than 4000 AMDAR aircraft provide wind and temperatures of climate quality Increasing number also provide humidity observations Archives of high quality upper air data are essential These data are used for local, national and global climate monitoring and forecast applications Also used for research, e. g. about climate change Knowledge of changes to thermal structure in the atmosphere is essential for studies of climate change drivers, e. g. carbon dioxide
BENEFITS TO AVIATION
Benefits of AMDAR - Aviation • Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U. S. National Airspace System (NAS)…. • Further, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information. [Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct 3, 2007. ]
Benefits of AMDAR - Aviation Next. Gen Air Transportation System: • “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U. S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007. ” • Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. • Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. • Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden • Two thirds of 70% of $19 billion = $8. 9 B p. a. of preventable costs to airlines from weather (US only) • Any development that has a positive impact on reducing aviation weather forecast errors is beneficial and valuable to the ATI.
Benefits of AMDAR - Aviation Benefits of AMDAR to ATI are derived from: 1. Improved weather services (no effort required) – – 2. Improved weather f-cast & inf. at terminals Improved weather f-cast & inf. enroute Operational changes taking advantage of improved services and AMDAR - e. g. for airlines: – Improved flight & operations planning – Tailored arrivals – Improved sensor management – Active use of weather services
Benefits of AMDAR - Aviation • Participation in AMDAR leads to a proven and significant benefit to meteorological forecasting and services to aviation through participation alone. • AMDAR data shared by NMHS automatically goes to other WMO Member NMHS and to global modeling centers (e. g. ECMWF) and WAFCs. • Airlines that provide data in data-sparse areas are likely to see even greater impacts on NWP and related forecast services. • Additionally. . More direct and active use of AMDARimproved weather services and AMDAR data will increase benefit and cost-saving to airlines. . .
WMO Benefits of AMDAR - Fuel Burn Modeling • Proven that AMDAR contributes to error reduction in NWP of 10 -20% (average) • Assume: – 2 kts global ave. improvement in wind accuracy due to AMDAR data availability (current) – Airline utilises improved wind field for flight operations • Modelling is simple: reduce the error margin based on the improved accuracy of wind so as to reduce the fuel carriage • Less fuel carriage = less fuel burn • Calculate savings for a ‘large’ mix-fleets airline (230 aircraft) • Modelling is linearly scaleable: i. e. cost savings are proportional to the size of the airline
Benefits to the Airline - Fuel Burn Modeling WMO • Result of modelling for airline (230 aircraft): – Fuel burn reduction = 8, 400 t per annum (+/ - 25%). – Cost saving = $18, 000 per aircraft per annum = $4. 2 M per year • Assume fuel cost = $0. 5/kg
Summary of Benefits for Partners To Meteorology To Airlines & Aviation • Efficient source of high quality upper air data • Observing system operated under PPP • Higher temporal frequency reporting of vertical profiles • Improved forecasting of high impact weather phenomena • Significant impact and improvement to NWP systems • Improved forecast skill to all weather & climate applications areas • Improved terminal forecasts leading to less delays • Better forecast of inflight phenomena – improved safety of passengers • Better forecast of enroute winds – reduced costs for fuel efficiency • Sensor monitoring for improved aircraft performance • Less impact on environment – better perception with public
More Information. . . WMO ▪WIGOS Technical Report 2014 -1 ▪WMO AMDAR Website: Aircraft -based Observations Data Benefits & Impact
Thank you
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