Belief Systems and Information Search in International Relations

Belief Systems and Information Search in International Relations: An Experimental “Information Board” Study David L. Rousseau Department of Political Science University of Pennsylvania 17 November 2003

Threat Perception In International Relations • Realism • Liberalism • Constructivism Do both ideas and material factors matter? If so, can you determine the relative power of each?

Sequential Decision Strategies Version A Q 1: Do we have different identities? Version B No None High Yes Q 2: Do they have the capacity to hurt my country? No Q 2: Do they have the capacity to hurt my country? No Low Medium Yes Q 3: Do our countries have a history of armed conflict? No Q 3: Do our countries have a history of armed conflict? No Medium Low Yes Q 1: Do we have different identities? No Yes High None

Hypotheses H 1: H 2: H 3: H 4: H 5 a: H 5 b: H 6: H 7: Strong Realist Beliefs Non-Realist Beliefs Averaging Decision Rule Sequential Decision Rule (+) (+) (-) Threat Perception Seek Material Information Seek Balance of Forces Info Seek Regime Type Info Exit After Balance of Forces Info Exit After Regime Type Info Number of Panels Viewed Updating After the First Panel

Beliefs in International Relations: Liberals vs. Realists • Utility of Military Force • Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism • States: Aggressive vs. Status Quo • Goals: Competing vs. Complementary • Effectiveness of International Organizations • Trustworthiness of States • Equitable vs. Power Maximizing Solutions • Fungibility of Power

Liberal-Realist Index From Survey • 10 Survey Questions Administered Two Weeks Prior • Theoretic Range: -20 to +20 • Mean: -2 • Sensitivity Analysis: ¼, ⅓, and ½

Decision Boards A 1: Containment A 2: Do Nothing A 3: Sanctions A 4: Use of Force D 1: Political D 2: Military D 3: Economic D 4: Diplomatic From Mintz et al. 1997

Results for H 1

Results for H 2

Results for H 3

Results for H 4

Results for H 5, H 6, and H 7 H 5 a: Reject: Strong Realists do not exit immediately after Power. H 5 b: Reject: Non-Realists do not exit immediately after Regime Type. H 6: Strong Support: Subjects visit the same panels. H 7: Weak Support: First panel is important but not decisive.

Problems with Current Study 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Need More Pressing Time Constraints Information Search is Too Manageable Explore with Non-Computer Format Remove Radio Buttons From Update Panel Vary Information Using Split Ballot Design

Conclusions • No Support for Sequential Model • Both Ideas and Material Factors Used in Decision • Interim Report: More Extensive Testing Required