Basics Probability Distributions Uniform Ardavan AsefVaziri Jan 2016

Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 1

Project Planning Simulation How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought independent of experience, is so admirably adapted to the objects of reality Albert Einstein

Watch the First Lecture Click Here to Access The First Part of the You. Tube Lecture Click Here to Access the Excel Sheet Click Here to Access The Second Part of the You. Tube Lecture Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 3

Simulation of Project Management Network https: //youtu. be/wqj. Gs. Lsad. Oo Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform URV Generation x= a+(b-a)Rand() x= 20+(60 -40)Rand() Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 4

Central Limit Theorem The distribution of each of the activity was uniform. Summation of them moves towards normal distribution. Given certain conditions, the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the underlying distribution Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 5

Simulation of Project Management Network Average = 87. 1 C. V. = 0. 16 1 0, 9 0, 8 0, 7 0, 6 0, 5 0, 4 0, 3 0, 2 0, 1 0 60 Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform 70 80 90 Ardavan Asef-Vaziri 100 Jan. -2016 110 120 130 6

Simulation of Project Management Network Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 7

Simulation of Project Management Network Average = 133. 1 C. V. = 0. 14 1, 2 1 0, 8 0, 6 0, 4 0, 2 0 0 50 100 150 Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform 200 Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 8

Simulation of Project Management Network Basics Probability Distributions- Uniform Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Jan. -2016 9