Basic Risk Assessment Kemshall H Mackenzie G Wilkinson

Basic Risk Assessment Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. , Wilkinson, B. , (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resource CD Rom, De Montfort University 1

Risk Assessment • • A continuous and dynamic process Fairness and balance Informing risk management Engaging and involving the offender Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 2

Purpose of OASys • Assess likelihood of reoffending. • To identify and classify offending-related needs. • To assess risk of serious harm, risk to the individual and other risks. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 3

Purpose of OASys • To assist with the management of risk of serious harm. • To link the assessment to the sentence plan. • To indicate the need for further specialist assessments. • To measure change during the offender's sentence. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 4

Structured Professional Judgment • Systematic evidence based actuarial and professional assessments • Of the offender and their behaviour in context. • Requires the use of knowledge and skills, Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 5

Case ID Offending Information OGRS Accommodation Attitudes Thinking Behaviour ETE Offendin g behaviour Emotional Well being Alcohol Misuse Finances Relationships Drug Misuse Lifestyle Associates Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 6

Estimating the Likelihood of Further Offending • The Offender Group Reconviction Score OGRS 3 - static risk information • Two further scores - 60% static and 40% dynamic risk factors: – OASys General Predictor Score (OGP) predicts the likelihood of non sexual, non violent offences. – OASYs Violence Predictor Score (OVP) predicts the likelihood of violent type offences. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 7

Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 8

OASys including Risk of Serious Harm Full assessment Risk Management Plan Supervision and Sentence Planning Review Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 9

The Quality of Assessments • An investigative approach is adopted, actively seeking information. • Information is verified wherever possible. • Clear distinctions are drawn between fact and opinion. • Opinions clearly derive from the evidence. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 10

Analyses Persists Self aware Decision Making Communicates Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Organised 11

Understanding the Significance of Information • What – does the information mean – is the reliability of the source – does it tell me about the pattern of offending – does it tell me about triggers and circumstance? • Is there any evidence that risk is escalating? Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 12

The ‘Lens’ Model RISK FACTORS What we know about all violent offenders Historical Personal Environmental RISK JUDGEMENTS Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University What we know about this offender 13

Walking Through the Offence • Thinking • Feeling • Means • Behaving • Opportunities • Victims Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 14

Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 15

Costs Benefits Readiness to change Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 16

"the same cognitive factors that are likely to influence treatment readiness are also themselves likely to be targets for change in treatment" [Chambers, 2008, p. 282] e. g. Assuming hostility in others a distortion among many violent offenders is also likely to affect their ability to trust and engage with practitioners and any treatment services. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 17

Questions Socratic Why What When Where Who • • Reasons and evidence Perspectives Consequences Attitudes and beliefs How Assumptive – use with care. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 18

Denial • • • Behaviour Responsibility Impact Rationalising justifying Offending no longer a problem Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 19

Denial or Excuses Strategies for the Assessor • Excuses - helping identify risk factors. • Be alert for external attributions being made and their likely impact on harmful behaviour. • Underlying ways of thinking about the world that affect the offender and not just the offending behaviour • Consider with the offender, taking active responsibility for changing the future, rather than simply acknowledging past faults. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 20

Assessing and Planning Using the Good Lives Model • Identify risk factors • What are they hoping to achieve through offending? (Primary Goods) • Identify pro-social strengths • Identify pro-social ways of achieving goods • Consider external realties • Create plan Adapted from Ward and Maruna 2007 Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 21

Transition to Adult System • When working with younger offenders do you – Break up the interview into manageable chunks? – Be careful to explain the process clearly and regularly check out their understanding of it? – Use a range of methods other than just asking questions to engage the offender in the process? – Allow more time to explore their situation and how they understand the world. ? Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 22

Consider • The extent to which the offender has already caused serious harm - frequency and escalation • Diversity of offences and offending behaviour; • Triggers and situations associated with harmful behaviour do they still exist? • Are opportunities for harmful acts increasing or decreasing? • The offenders insight into their offending and the harm that they have caused Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 23

Consider • Idiosyncratic or aggravating factors including use of weapons • The offenders attitude to victims, or victim groups • Relevant information about victims. • The offender's motivation to commit further offences. • The offender's motivation and ability to change. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 24

Good Practice Suggestions • Appropriate weight given to OGP, OVP and to OGRs • When an assessor judges that a score is an under, or overestimate, the reasons clearly recorded in OASYs. • Assessors should seek to include all relevant information in OASys, a range of past and present behaviours, not just the current offence. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 25

Good Practice Suggestions • An OASys should include a clear narrative account of the offence history. • Decisions based on a full range of risk factors. • Pay closer attention to the situation and context within which offending occurs • Include protective factors as well as risks. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 26

Protective/ Strengths Individual Situational e. g. Pro-social influences Employment INCREASING LIKELIHOOD Reducing Offending e. g. Insight, Motivation pro-social skills An Offence Triggers / Acute e. g. increasing substance misuse , collapse of social supports, disengagement , changes in mental health, particular situations Individual e. g. Attitudes , patterns of Thinking and behaviour Situational e. g. offending opportunities Pro-offending peers Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Supporting Offending Predisposing 27

Contingencies – Scenario Planning • A range of possible future scenarios - what has this offender done before? • Avoid false assumptions, what might change? (Victim, Location, Other) • Scenarios for each of the changes. What might happen, think about the potential for escalation. • Discount similar scenarios and the unbelievable. Identify any new triggers or risk factors to be alert to. • How would this affect your risk management? Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 28

Likelihood Impact Imminence Over estimating risk Under estimating risk Balanced Risk Judgements Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 29

Offender + Victim + = Offence Circumstances Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Scott 30

Progressive Dangerousness Actively seeking To create opportunities Seeking out opportunities Attitudes and beliefs The chance one off Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 31

Victim Blaming Licence Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 32

Levels of Risk • Low – Current evidence does not indicate likelihood of serious harm • Medium – There are identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm the offender has the potential to cause serious harm but unlikely to do so unless there is a change in circumstances, for example failure to take medication, loss of accommodation, relationship breakdown, drug or alcohol misuse Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 33

Levels of Risk • High – There are identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm potential The potential event could happen at any time and the impact would be serious • Very High – There is an imminent risk of serious harm. The potential event is more likely than not to happen imminently and the impact would be serious Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 34

4 Tier Framework 1 3 2 4 Control Increasing Resource Allocation In Tiers Change Help Punish Increasing complexity sentence and risk Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University 35