Barcelona 12 15 May 2003 ea technology Delivering

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 ea technology Delivering your energy solutions D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 1

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 The use of ‘Health Indices’ to determine end of life and remnant life for distribution assets D T Hughes EA Technology UK D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 2

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Condition Based Risk Management • Use of condition information to understand future performance • Maximise the use of existing information • Define additional condition assessment • To enable specific decisions on replacement/EOL D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 3

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Context • Ageing asset population • Pressures to maintain/improve performance and to reduce costs • Age (by itself) is not an acceptable reason to replace assets • Must demonstrate need and consequences, condition and future performance • DPCR 4, and Ofgem ARM D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 4

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 A Health Index (To define proximity to EOL) • A Health Index is means of combining varied and relatively complex condition information as a single number • Define significant condition criteria, code information numerical, apply weightings and develop a simple algorithm to generate a HI for each asset. • Rank and apply calibration D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 5

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Health Index Condition Remnant Life (years) Probability of failure Bad At EOL (<5 years) High Poor 5 - 10 Medium Fair 10 - 20 Low Good >20 100 Very Low 0 D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 6

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 From the health index to probability of failure and beyond • Defined a process to translate HI to probability of failure • Estimate future health index values based on degradation processes • Estimate future failure rates and effects of different intervention strategies D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 7

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Health Index Profile for 11 k. V OHLs D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 8

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Current and future failure rates D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 9

Barcelona 12 -15 May 2003 Summary • Process goes from condition information to probability of failure and future failure rate • Assumptions/approximations howeverything is related back to physical condition, degradation and failure processes and actual fault rates. • Sanity checks and links to reality throughout • Provides a vital input to overall risk models D T Hughes UK Session 5 – Block 1 10