BARACK OBAMA AND THE POLITICS OF HOPE RATIONALES

BARACK OBAMA AND THE POLITICS OF HOPE (? )

RATIONALES FOR ALTERNATIVES • U. S. loss of “soft power” • Continuing frustration in Latin America • Importance of Latin America to U. S. • Change of U. S. administration as result of presidential election

WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? • • Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt – Or • Self-centered national interest.

CLASSICAL REALISM • 1. The international system is anarchical. • 2. Sovereign states are principal actors. • 3. States are rational actors, pursuing national interests, and are in competition with one another. • 4. Overriding goals are survival and security— best guaranteed by military power. • 5. Constraints achieved by resistance of other powers, not by treaties or friendship.

“PROGRESSIVE” REALISM • 1. International system not anarchical but structured, as through “regimes. ” • 2. Nonstate actors and international organizations play significant roles. • 3. State preferences vary from time to time, place to place. • 4. States are not inherently aggressive or competitive; preferences can change. • 5. Cooperation can yield mutual gains for participating states.

FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft. ” Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. War vs. peace. Importance of democracy. Value of international cooperation, institutions. American power: extent vs. limits.

SELECTED ISSUE AREAS • 1. Economic integration and FTAs. • • • 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Drug trafficking. Immigration. Organization of American States. Pink Tide. Cuba.

WOLA PROPOSAL: THREE PRINCIPLES • 1. The United States should support economic development strategies oriented to both growth and equity in Latin America. • 2. The United States should help strengthen the civilian institutions that provide citizen security in Latin America. • 3. The United States should support the development and consolidation of democratic institutions and respect for human rights in Latin America.

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? • 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. • 2. Events within region that demand U. S. attention— e. g. , spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. • 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e. g. , “clash of civilizations. ” • 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

And the outlook is…. . ?

THE OBAMA RECORD • Exaggerated expectations • Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) • Hesitant beginnings (Trinidad & Tobago ≠ Cairo)

CURRENT ISSUES • Honduras: questionable commitment to democracy • Colombia: military bases • Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo • Points of tension: – Venezuela – Bolivia – “Pink tide” in general

USA and Latin America: Comparative and Historical Perspective _____Latin America as Priority______ Low _______ High _____ Operational Mode for U. S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic imposition intervention (Bush 2001 -09) (Reagan 1981 -89) ____________ Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral low-level high-level diplomacy engagement (Clinton 1993 -2000) (Kennedy 1961 -63) ______________________________

Rank-Order Preferences for U. S. Policy __Configuration__ _Bush II__ ___Partners___ (Mexico, __Colombia)__ __Targets___ (Cuba, __Venezuela)__ __Rivals___ __(Brazil? )__ ___Bystanders__ ___(Others)____ Low priority + Unilateral 1 4 2 1 4 Low priority + Multilateral 2 3 1 2 2 High priority + Unilateral 3 1 4 4 3 High priority + Multilateral 4 2 3 3 1 Note: As presented here, ordinal rankings mean that 1 stands for the first-place (most preferable) choice, 2 for the second-place choice, 3 for the third-place choice, and 4 for the fourth-place (least preferable) choice. Question: Where to place Obama?