BARACK OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN

BARACK OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? • • Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt – Or • Self-centered national interest.

CONCEPTUAL ISSUES • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft. ” Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. Emphasis on war vs. peace. Importance of democracy. Value of international cooperation, institutions. American power: extent vs. limits.

FOUNDATIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES • U. S. loss of “soft power” • Continuing frustration in Latin America • Importance of Latin America to U. S. • Change of U. S. administration as result of presidential election

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? • 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. • 2. Events within region that demand U. S. attention— e. g. , spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. • 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e. g. , “clash of civilizations. ” • 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

THE OBAMA RECORD • Exaggerated expectations • Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) • Hesitant beginnings, ambivalent stances • Nuanced view of Latin America

RECENT ISSUES • Honduras: commitment to democracy? • Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo • Points of tension: – Venezuela – Bolivia – “New Left” in general • War on Drugs • Immigration

HONDURAS 2005 -06 2008 2009: 6/28 7/05 11/29 2010: Jan July Aug 2011: Manuel Zelaya elected Joins ALBA (and Hugo Chávez) Ousted, Roberto Micheletti takes power Honduras suspended by OAS Porfirio Lobo elected (56. 6% vote) MZ exile in Dominican Republic; Honduras withdraws from ALBA U. S. urges readmission to OAS Mexico, Chile extend recognition Lobo and Zelaya reach agreement on MZ’s return

BRAZIL • • Differences over Honduras, Cuba, Chávez Ties to Iran, diplomatic initiatives UN Security Council Trade: WTO suit, agricultural protectionism (e. g. sugar, oranges, ethanol) • Perceptions of power, relationship • Shift from Lula to Dilma Rousseff

CUBA • Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts • Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes • More flights (chartered) • Remittances of $500 per quarter • Context: – – Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state Emergence of “civil society” Republican takeover of House of Representatives New generation of Cuban-Americans

And so…?