Baltic Tiger or Paper Tiger Latvian Miracle or

Baltic Tiger or Paper Tiger? ‘Latvian Miracle’ or Unraveling Social Europe? Associate Professor Jeffrey Sommers

Latvian GDP

Inflation Tamed

Latvian Unemployment Down at 14. 3%

‘No people, no problem’: self deportation as means for addressing unemployment

Net emigration from Latvia, 2000 -2011 EU Accession

Population change in the Baltics, 2000 -2011 (% of the inititial population migrating)

Latvia’s Population

Live Births Peak in 1987 (42 k) Lowest point in 2010 (19 k)

European Unemployment: a Great Depression Reprised • ‘Old Europe’ unemployment levels in many countries comparable to average unemployment rates in Europe’s largest economies in the Great Depression • ‘New Europe’ unemployment rates multiples of average rates of the largest European economies during the Great Depression • Greece & Spain with unemployment numbers larger than US’s during the Great Depression

Jacques Delors and the Idea of a ‘Social Europe’ • Idea in 1986 of making a more competitive European economy while maintaining the features of social inclusion & sustainability created after WW II • Attempt to reconcile social stability with increasing liberalization

The Financial Crash & Austerity • Causes in Europe: – Maturing capitalism and reduced investment opportunities – Development asymmetries in EU (rich & poorer nations mixed in union) – Insufficient mechanisms for recycling capital between rich and poor countries in EU (structural funds the strongest) – Euro and lack of national monetary (currency) adjustment tools – Opportunism: using crisis and Lisbon goals to roll back Social Welfare states

Social Europe & Its Discontents: Latvia Rescues Austerity • Austerity’s results, mostly underwhelming….

An austerity “success” must be found Latvian austerity to the rescue! Tabula Rasa. Small place that people don’t know much about. Provides a frictionless opportunity for people to impose narratives on.

Anders Aslund • The architect of Latvia’s austerity model and chief economic advisor to Latvia’s Prime Minister writes: – Latvia’s internal devaluation and austerity has been a huge success and an example for other European states to emulate

Christine Lagarde • In May 2012, head of the IMF stated in Riga: – Latvia “could serve as an inspiration for European leaders grappling with the economic crisis”

Olivier Blanchard • Mea Culpa! – Thought austerity would be a “disaster” but has reverted to course by supporting what in effect is structural adjustment version 2. 0 • “Long live structural adjustment!” • Latvia criticized IMF from the right, arguing it needed more austerity than IMF counseled.

Chrystia Freeland • “The harsh Latvian plan worked because the whole country was committed to it. ” – Reminds one of the Red Cross inspections of the Theresienstadt showcase concentration camp, who shown orchestras and clean conditions announced, “everything in order here!”

1991 and “Latvia 2000” “…the reform has to continue despite changes in government” • Tight monetary policy • Pegged currency at high exchange rate • Regressive Taxation: • high labor tax • no capital gains

Latvia, uniquely, criticized IMF from the right, arguing it needed more austerity than IMF counseled • As State Department cables from Wikileaks reported negotiations over Latvia’s 2010 austerity budget: – “The telephone conference did not go very well, according the Assistant Secretary of State, with the IMF and EU expressing serious concerns about the income distribution profile of the proposed budget cuts. The EU and the IMF urged the Latvian government to reconsider the measures, but Repse [Finance Minister] defended the budget proposal…. ”

Latvia and the “Spatial Fix” The Late Soviet Union and the Age of Corruption

Nordex: Money, Metals, Oil & the Spatial Fix Marc Rich (Vice-Rector) Grigori Louchansky

Correspondent Banking (Tax Evasion) “Wealth Management” “Tax Optimization” Lucy Edwards, Bank of New York

2004 Transition (Inflating the Bubble): NATO and EU Accession Global liquidity • Japanese Carrying Trade • Alan Greenspan’s credit Keynesian turn • Capital inflows to Latvia (2004) • EU Structural Funds • Commodity inflation and Russian money • Swedish banks and the Viking Reprise • Balance of payments imbalance 25%. Massive import-based consumption paid by borrowed cash.

A Ponzi Economy: Asset Inflation and Collateralizing Latvia’s previously Debt Free-Property: The return of (debt) Serfdom Swedbank SEB

Impact of Credit Crisis • At the peak of the real estate bubble in 2007 real estate consumed 71. 8% of the credit extended in the country (non-productive sector). After purchase of properties, the capital gains made on the sale of property fueled growth of consumer goods (mostly all of foreign manufacture) that now will require years of repayment.

Sartrean ‘No Exit’ for Latvian Borrowers • Latvians not allowed to walk away from mortgages. Law requires full payback of loans regardless of collapsed property prices. • Banks can go after borrowers and any family members that co-signed for property. A kind of neo-serfdom (no exit).

The 2008 Crisis: • Largest decline in GDP of any country (roughly 25% • Unemployment soars over 20% • Extreme inequality: GINI index shows inequality at roughly US levels, but not controlled for massive non-reporting of income. Alternative methodologies using auto registrations show inequality levels at Sub. Saharan African Levels.

‘What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate…’ Keynesianism for Rich: Monetarism for the Poor • Joaquin Almunia, head of European Commission, sends letter to Latvia’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister on January 26, 2009 • His letter states that bailout funds of Latvia are to be used: – “to avoid a balance of payments crisis…restoring confidence in the banking sector, and bolstering the foreign reserves of the Bank of Latvia [Central Bank]. ” • “Further, the letter state what the funds are not to be used for: – “worryingly, we have witnessed some recent evidence in Latvian public debate of calls for part of the financial assistance to be used inter alia for promoting export industries or to stimulate the economy through increased spending at large. It is important to actively stem these misperceptions. ”

What is to be done? • Double down on austerity – Internal devaluation (drive wages down): Reject devaluation of currency – Drive working hours, for those with jobs, up – Slash social expenditures • Hospitals & clinics closed • Schools closed • Export way out of crisis. Export what? Timber. Clear cutting accelerates. • Sell residency permits to CIS: Gives access to Shengen Zone (has resulted in CIS oligarchs pouring money into Latvian real estate) • Correspondent banking

Protestant Morality Play, Plucky, Stoic Balts: “The harsh Latvian plan worked because the whole country was committed to it. ” • Carefully scripted Latvian Government narrative for export at odds with facts on the ground • Latvians much divided on austerity

Huge protests following crisis: January 13, 2009: 10, 000 demonstrate in Riga

Students and Pensioners March

Farmers

Dickens Reprised • Comparative poverty rates: – Poverty: Latvia (41%), Greece (27. 7%) – Children’s poverty: Latvia (42%), Greece (28. 7%) – Extreme Poverty: Latvia (33%), Greece (11%)

‘No People, No Problem’ Voting with feet: Exit • Latvian population roughly at reproduction parity at end of Soviet period – Population 2. 7 million • Demographic collapse: people stop having children (European-wide problem, but worse in Latvia) – At first people flee both east and west as situations permit – EU accession in 2004 opens door to continued emigration West – Accelerates with 2008 crisis: births and marriages decline • 1987 peak Soviet-Latvian births, 42, 1359 • 2011 low mark from crisis births, 18, 825 • 2010 census initially delivered result of the politically unacceptable 1. 88 million (real number possibly less) – “Tools & Repairs” applied to methodology to deliver more acceptable (over 2 million) figure of 2. 08 million

In short, there was no consensus for austerity • People protested (intensely, but briefly) • People then emigrated • Elections: population was divided on ethic lines – Austerity advocates played the ethnic card: ‘vote for us or the ethnic Russians take charge’

Latvian Austerity as Global Model to Emulate? : ‘You should not try this at home’ • To succeed: – Small enough, willing enough, and able to let at least 10% of population emigrate (14% of working age population) – Demographically secure enough to see reproduction rates plummet – Ethnically divided population that permits ethnic card to distract population – Depoliticized Post-Soviet population willing to give up protest after short period

Macro-economic ‘success’ • Current Account Balances Brought back to acceptable limits • Wage growth halted for population with per capita incomes already well below Greece’s • Logging exports up • Wheat exports up • Offshore finance growing (especially after Cyprus economic crisis) • Manufacturing up (over extremely low levels) • Economic growth, but economy still smaller than 2008 • Unemployment dropping (at 14. 3% presently)

Offshore banking surging • Bloomberg notes: – As non-European inflows into Cyprus stagnate, about $1. 2 billion flooded into Latvia in the first half of the year [2012]. Non-resident deposits are now $10 billion, about half the total, regulators say, exceeding 43 percent in Switzerland, according to that nation’s central bank • These are big amounts given that Latvia has roughly a fourth of Switzerland’s population and only a tenth of its GDP

A Global Model of Social Exclusion? • Very hard to replicate given highly specific local conditions • ‘Destroyed the village in order to save it’? – Too early to tell….