Balance of payments Trade deficits and surpluses Foreign

• Balance of payments • Trade deficits and surpluses • Foreign exchange markets

þBOP accounting is the recording of transactions between domestic and foreign economic agents. þAny transaction that results in a receipt of money by domestic agents from abroad is recorded as a credit in the BOP accounts. þAny transaction that entails the payment of money by domestic units to foreigners is recorded as a debit in the BOP accounts. þThe current account records foreign transactions involving merchandise and services. þThe financial account records foreign transactions involving financial assets and land.

• Net investment income abroad: Investment earnings by U. S. residents minus investment earnings by foreign residents from their assets in the United States • Net unilateral transfers abroad : The unilateral transfers (gifts and grants) received abroad by U. S. residents minus the unilateral transfers U. S. residents send abroad

U. S. balance of payments for 2006 (billions of dollars) Current Account 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Merchandise trade balance (1+2) Service exports Service imports Goods and services balance (3+4+5) Net Investment Income from abroad Net unilateral transfers Current account balance (6+7+8) +1, 023. 1 - 1, 861. 4 - 838. 3 +422. 6 - 342. 8 - 758. 5 +36. 6 - 89. 6 - 811. 5 Financial Account 10. Change in U. S. owned assets abroad 11. Change in foreign-owned assets in U. S. 12. Financial account balance (10+11) 13. Statistical discrepancy TOTAL (9+12+13) - 1, 059. 1 +1, 888. 4 +829. 3 - 17. 8 0. 0 4

As you can see, the United States had a large current account deficit in 2006

U. S. imports have exceeded U. S. exports since 1976, and the trade deficit has widened 6

U. S. trade deficit in 2006 by country or region U. S. imports more goods from each of the world’s major economies than it exports to them. The largest U. S. trade deficit is with China, which exported five times more to the United States in 2006 than it imported from the United States. 7

Figure 2: Percent of U. S. Trade Deficit Accounted OPEC Countries for by Selected Countries/Areas Japan China South and Central America 2007 Latin America 1999 Euro Area Mexico Canada 0 5 10 15 20 Percent 25 30 35 40

If Wal-Mart was a country, it would be China’s seventh largest trading partner

An exchange rate is the price of one national currency expressed in terms of another national currency. For example, the dollar price of the British pound is $1. 49 -meaning it takes $1. 49 to buy 1 pound

If the dollar price of the British pound ($/£) is: $1. 49 = £ 1 Then the pound price of the dollar (£/$) is given by the reciprocal of the dollar-pound exchange rate. That is: £/$ =

Exchange Rates are Determined by the Supply & Demand for Foreign Exchange Supply of euros Dollars per Euro 1. 26 Demand for euros 0 E* Euros

Why do agents want to exchange dollars for euros ? • To purchase European-made goods and services. • To purchase stocks in European companies or other euro-denominated assets. • To speculate on future exchange rate movements.

Exchange rate (dollars per euro) The foreign exchange market The fewer dollars needed to purchase 1 unit of foreign exchange, the lower the price of foreign goods, the greater the quantity of foreign goods demanded, and the greater the quantity of foreign exchange demanded. The D curve slopes downward. S $1. 30 1. 25 1. 20 D 0 800 Foreign exchange (millions of euros) An increase in in the exchange rate makes US products cheaper foreigners. The increases demand for US goods implies an increase in the quantity of foreign exchange supplied. The S curve slopes upward. 14

Exchange rate (dollars per euro) Effect on the foreign exchange market of an increased demand for euros The intersection of the demand curve foreign exchange, D, and the supply curve foreign exchange, S, determines the exchange rate. At an exchange rate of $1. 25 per euro, the quantity demanded of euros equals the quantity supplied. S 1. 27 1. 25 D’ D 0 800 820 Foreign exchange (millions of euros) An increase in the demand for euros from D to D’ increases the exchange rate from $1. 25 to $1. 27 per euro. 15

The dollar has strengthened against the euro recently

Exchange Rates and the Prices of Imported Goods Question: Suppose the dollar price of a new Harley Davidson is $22, 000. How much would a German buyer have to pay in euros?

Euro price of the Harley Euro price = dollar price of the Harley × euro price of the dollar Thus, at the current exchange rate (€ 0. 79 = $1) we have: Euro price = $22, 000 × 0. 79 = € 17, 380

An appreciating dollar makes U. S. -made goods and services less price-competitive

Example: Let the dollar appreciate against the euro The new exchange rate is € 1 = $1 Thus we have: Euro price = $22, 000 × 1. 00 = € 22, 000

Exchange rates and the Affordability of Imported Goods The euro price of a Krups coffee maker is € 45. 00 Question: What is the price of the coffee maker expressed in dollars? If the dollar price of one euro is $1. 26, then: $Price = (1. 26)(45) = $56. 70

Effect of an appreciating dollar on the price of imported goods What if the dollar should appreciate, or gain value, against the euro? Let the dollar price of the euro to decrease to $1. 00. Question: What is the dollar price of the Krups coffee maker? $ price = (1. 00)(45) = $45. 00

In late June 2007, a Big Mac cost more in the US than in most other countries 23