BACKGROUND AND PROJECT PROPOSAL Objectives and workflow 21

BACKGROUND AND PROJECT PROPOSAL Objectives and workflow 21 st. MPSMeeting, 2013 -11 -15 Odei Rey Orozko September 2015, CERN, Geneva

OVERVIEWBACKGROUND ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS Qualifications • Degree in Mathematics, University of the Basque Country (EHU) • Masters degree in Mathematical Modeling, Statistics and Computing, EHU Previous work • Researcher at EHU, Mathematical modeling in finance, Department of Applied Mathematics. • Junior professional at ESS. Reliability Analysis for the accelerator. Statistical modeling in engineering systems and Data Analysis. Development of an Excel based tool for Reliability analysis (Excel vba and Mat. Lab). • Researcher at EHU, Generation and modeling of dialogues based on stochastic structural models. Development of a python based software for dialogue generation and evaluation. Design of an algorithm to model Dialogues based on Stochastic Bi-Automaton.

Previous at ESS OVERVIEW ONwork RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS Base – Starting point • Reliability Analysis - November 2012 - Rebecca Seviour. • • All systems were listed in one excel file - 600 lines. • Mission time = 144 h = 6 days. Different types of redundancy and repair cases were assumed to fine-tune the overall LINAC reliability and availability numbers. Preliminary Reliability Analysis: Excel based model • Created one excel file per system. • • • Removed redundancy and repair assumptions. Mission time = 1 h according to input from XFWG on reliability Identify failure rate/MTBF data source. Identify and redefine structures and formulas behind. Created statistical macro that calculates the overall reliability and availability numbers and creates a structure graph of the system.

PREVIOUS AT EHU OVERVIEW ONWORK RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ONLINE LEARNING OF STOCHASTIC BI-AUTOMATON TO MODEL DIALOGUES CORPUS Set 1 Initial DM Learning 1840 dialogues CORPUS 500 dialogues CORPUS Set 2 Online Learning x 5 Learning SU Stg 1 Stg 2. 2 Learned DM

PROJECT PROPOSAL OBJECTIVES Availability and reliability studies. Optimize the overall operational efficiency of accelerators • Optimize Availability and Energy efficiency • Define maintenance and operational policies CLIC • Find the methods to identify critical parameters

PROJECT PROPOSAL OBJECTIVES • Comparative study of the modeling tools available. • Detection of the methods to identify the critical parameters. • Formulation of “best approaches” (existing, new mathematical models or methodologies). • Implementation and testing of the proposed new “best approaches”. • Comparison of the new modeling tools and existing ones.

PROJECT PROPOSAL WORKFLOW • Literature review, study and trainning of the existing modeling tools and methods. • Explorative studies on CLIC Comparison of the different modeling tools and how they perform for parameter sensitivity analysis. Formulation of new mathematical models Implementation, testing and comparison Design of the best methodology for availability studies Thesis definition Thesis writing

PROJECT PROPOSAL WORKFLOW 1. Literature review, study and trainning of the existing modeling tools and the methods behind them. Explorative studies on CLIC. 2. Comparison of the different modeling tools and how they perform for parameter sensitivity analysis. 3. Formulation of new mathematical models 4. Implementation, testing and comparison 5. Design of the best methodology for availability studies