Aviation Products from the Localized Aviation MOS Program

Aviation Products from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Judy E. Ghirardelli National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory Presented at Eastern Region Aviation Weather Conference November 19, 2008

Outline • • LAMP Overview Brief LAMP Verification Current Status and Products Future Plans

LAMP Overview

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Background • LAMP is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance for sensible weather forecasts • LAMP acts as an update to GFS MOS guidance • Guidance is both probabilistic and non-probabilistic • LAMP provides guidance for aviation elements • LAMP bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS forecast • Good quality recent surface observations help to decrease the uncertainty in the short term. As the observations become less predictive later in the forecast period, the uncertainty increases. • Verification shows improvement on MOS in the first hours, then skill comparable to MOS

LAMP Guidance Details LAMP guidance is in the range of 1 - 25 hours in 1 hour projections • • • LAMP provides station-oriented guidance for: – all LAMP forecast elements – ~1600 stations – CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico Temperature and dewpoint Wind speed, direction, and gusts Probability of precipitation (on hr) Probability of measurable precipitation (6 - and 12 -h) LAMP provides grid-oriented guidance for: • Precipitation type • Precipitation characteristics – Thunderstorms: • Probability of thunderstorm occurrence • Thunderstorms in a 2 hour period in a 20 -km grid box • Ceiling height • Best Category Yes/No of thunderstorm • Conditional ceiling height occurrence in a 2 hour period in a 20 - • Total sky cover km grid box • Visibility • Conditional visibility – CONUS only • Obstruction to vision As of November 13, 2008, LAMP is running 24 times a day (every hour) in NWS operations • •

Brief LAMP Verification

0900 UTC LAMP compared to MOS Categorical Ceiling Height < 1000 feet 0900 UTC LAMP verified against 0000 UTC GFS MOS

0900 UTC LAMP compared to MOS Categorical Visibility < 3 miles 0900 UTC LAMP verified against 0000 UTC GFS MOS

Current Status and Products

Current Status and Products • Guidance sent out from NCEP on SBN/NOAAPort and NWS FTP Server – ASCII text bulletin – BUFR data – GRIB 2 thunderstorm data • Available Products: – Guidance viewable in AWIPS D 2 D and Avn. FPS – Website products: • Text bulletins • Station plots • Meteograms • Gridded Thunderstorm images

Overview of Available Products • Available to NWS forecasters via AWIPS – Guidance is viewed as text or graphically by forecasters – Guidance is input into software for preparing TAFs

Example of a LAMP Text Bulletin KBUF UTC TMP DPT WDR WSP WGS PPO PCO P 06 TP 2 TC 2 POZ POS TYP CLD CIG CCG VIS CVS OBV BUFFALO 13 14 15 16 21 22 12 12 25 25 20 18 19 18 27 26 26 25 74 69 72 63 Y Y 0 0 99 99 S S OV OV 6 6 5 5 7 7 6 5 N N GFS LAMP 21 22 23 22 22 21 12 12 12 24 25 25 20 19 18 27 26 25 74 67 60 Y Y Y GUIDANCE 2/19/2008 17 18 19 20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 22 22 21 20 20 20 19 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 25 25 24 24 25 19 18 19 19 17 15 13 12 12 11 10 26 26 26 27 24 21 NG NG NG 64 59 68 74 55 50 51 48 49 49 49 Y Y Y 40 35 36 0 0 0 N N N 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 99100100100100100 99100100 S S S S OV OV OV OV 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 N N N N 1200 07 08 19 18 12 11 25 25 09 09 NG NG 48 47 Y Y 1 99 S OV 6 6 7 5 N UTC 09 10 17 16 11 11 25 25 09 08 NG NG 46 48 Y Y 11 16 10 25 08 NG 48 Y 0 0 N N 1 1 99 99 S S OV OV 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 N N 12 15 10 25 08 NG 48 Y 27 0 N 1 99 S OV 6 6 7 5 N 13 16 9 25 08 NG 50 Y 1 99 S OV 6 6 7 4 N

LAMP Station Plots Elements • Flight Category • Ceiling Height • Visibility • Obstruction to Vision • Total Sky Cover • Precipitation Type • Probability of Precipitation • Wind Speed • Wind Gust • Wind Direction • Temperature Click an element name on this slide to see its plot • Dewpoint

LAMP Station Meteograms Features • Up to 12 displayable LAMP forecast elements • Real-time verification of current and past cycles • Verification of completed past cycles including the corresponding GFS MOS forecast

Realtime Meteogram Example LAMP guidance for Islip 11/17 12 UTC

Meteogram Example Continued LAMP guidance for Islip 11/17 12 UTC

Verified Meteogram Example LAMP guidance for Islip 11/16 12 UTC (Note: MOS shown is 06 UTC GFS MOS)

LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) All Projections

Future Plans

Depicting probabilities and uncertainty in best category forecast Proposed new web page product

LAMP Categorical Forecast Selection Process Probability (%) The probability of “few” exceeds the threshold value for “few” – LAMP categorical forecast is “few” Does the forecast probability of few probability. Does of the forecast equal or exceed the probability of broken scattered equal or threshold for few? Does equal or exceed thethe forecast exceed the threshold probability of threshold for broken? for scattered? overcast equal or exceed the threshold for overcast? Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5

Depicting Probabilistic Information Purpose: indicate to user the uncertainty associated with the Best Category forecasts given the probabilistic information Threshold = dashed black line Probability < thres = green line Probability ≥ thres = red line St. Louis – slight chance of precip St. Cloud – high chance of precip Chicago – slight chance yes and slight chance no precip San Francisco – very small chance of precip

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Threshold Plot Tab Look at rarest of these categories first. The probability of vis < 1 mile (solid line) does not exceed the threshold (dashed line). Look to next rarest category.

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Threshold Plot Tab Look at next rarest of these categories. The probability of vis < 3 miles (solid line) exceeds the threshold (dashed line) only for the last hour; therefore this condition is indicated for only that hour. Look to next rarest category to determine the conditions for other hours.

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Threshold Plot Tab Look at next rarest of these categories. The probability of vis ≤ 5 miles (solid line) DOES exceed the threshold (dashed line) at times; therefore this condition is indicated for those times. Note that vis ≤ 5 is not chosen for the last hour, because a rarer condition (vis < 3 miles) was already indicated.

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Threshold Plot Tab Show all together. Looking at these categories, look at the rarest first, then the next rarest, etc. The condition indicated is the rarest probability which exceeds its threshold. This is indicated by the red probability line.

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Uncertainty Plot Tab – looking at vis ≤ 5 miles Red=Yes Probability exceeds threshold by more than 10% Orange=Likely Probability exceeds threshold but NOT by more than 10% Yellow = Chance Cyan = No Probability is less than threshold butthis shows you one condition than threshold Note that (e. g. , vis ≤ 5 by withinmiles). 10% To determine the most likely condition, more thanyou 10% should consider the rarest conditions first.

LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight Categories Uncertainty Plot Tab – looking at vis ≤ 5 miles

What’s next? Gridded LAMP Total sky cover - Station guidance Total sky cover - Gridded guidance

LAMP Aviation Grids LAMP Probability of ceiling height ≤ 3000 feet

Questions? • LAMP Website: – http: //www. nws. noaa. gov/mdl/gfslamp. shtml • Contact: – Judy. Ghirardelli@noaa. gov