Automating eLearning The Higher Education Revolution Professor J

Automating e-Learning: The Higher Education Revolution Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia

1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question? ” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t.

The Internet Powerful technical, economic and social trends facilitated by the Internet are revolutionizing the traditional concepts of business and economics – their effects on higher education will be especially profound.

Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

Technological Changes § Steam Power - 1780 s to the 1840 s § The Railways - 1840 s to the 1890 s § Electric Power - 1890 s to the 1930 s § The Motor Car - 1930 s to the 1980 s § Information Technology - 1980 s to ?

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Current prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

Internet Access Population (millions) § § § § § USA China 166. 0 56. 6 Japan Germany 51. 3 32. 2 UK South Korea Australia Hong Kong Singapore 29. 0 27. 8 10. 6 4. 4 2. 3 Total global population estimated at 498 million Source: A C Nielsen, March 2002

e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders e-Readiness ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Country USA Australia UK Canada Norway Sweden Singapore Finland Denmark Netherlands Switzerland Germany Hong Kong e-Readiness score 8. 73 8. 29 8. 10 8. 09 8. 07 7. 98 7. 87 7. 83 7. 70 7. 69 7. 67 7. 51 7. 45 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit e. Business Forum, May 2001

e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders e-Readiness ranking 14 15 16 (tie) 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Country Ireland France Austria Taiwan Japan Belgium New Zealand South Korea Italy Israel Spain Portugal e-Readiness score 7. 28 7. 26 7. 22 7. 18 7. 10 7. 00 6. 97 6. 74 6. 71 6. 43 6. 21 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit e. Business Forum, May 2001

The EIU e-Readiness Rankings A formula based on the following factors: § Connectivity (30%) § Business environment (20%) § e-Commerce consumer & business adoption (20%) § Legal & regulatory environment (15%) § Supporting e-Services (10%) § Social & cultural infrastructure (5%) Source: http: //www. ebusinessforum. com

The Knowledge Explosion Over 90% of the relevant literature in many technical fields, such as biotechnology, astronomy, computers and software, and environmental sciences, has been produced since 1985. Traditional programmatic approaches to education simply cannot keep up………. . . J B Quinn (2001)

The Knowledge-based Economy There are increasing signs that our current paradigms for higher education, the nature of our academic programs, the organization of our colleges and universities, and the way that we finance, conduct and distribute the services of higher education may not be able to adapt to the demands of our time. J J Duderstadt (2001)

Prediction 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21 st century'. Cairncross (1997)

Thesis Interaction between Internet systems and educational processes will revolutionize traditional approaches to higher education.

Leadership Challenge A market-driven restructuring of higher education as an industry – while perhaps both alien and distasteful to the academy – is an important perspective from which to view the future of universities.

Five Generations of Distance Education Technology § The Correspondence Model § The Multimedia Model § The Telelearning Model § The Flexible Learning Model § The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

First Generation CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONAL MODELS OF VARIABLE DISTANCE EDUCATION HIGHLY ADVANCED FLEXIBILITY COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REFINED INTERACTIVE APPROACHING ZERO DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Time Place Pace MATERIALS DELIVERY THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL • Print Yes Yes No No

Second Generation CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONAL MODELS OF VARIABLE DISTANCE EDUCATION HIGHLY ADVANCED FLEXIBILITY COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REFINED INTERACTIVE APPROACHING ZERO DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Time Place Pace MATERIALS DELIVERY THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Yes Yes No No • Audiotape Yes Yes No No • Videotape Yes Yes No • Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Yes Yes Yes No No • Interactive video Yes Yes Yes No • Print

Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

Third Generation CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONAL MODELS OF VARIABLE DISTANCE EDUCATION HIGHLY ADVANCED FLEXIBILITY COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REFINED INTERACTIVE APPROACHING ZERO DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Time Place Pace MATERIALS DELIVERY THE TELELEARNING MODEL • Audio-teleconferencing No No Yes No • Videoconferencing No No Yes • Audiographic communication No No No Yes No No • Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing No No No Yes No

Fourth Generation CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONAL MODELS OF VARIABLE DISTANCE EDUCATION HIGHLY ADVANCED FLEXIBILITY COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REFINED INTERACTIVEAPPROACHING ZERO DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Time Place Pace MATERIALS DELIVERY THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL • Interactive multimedia (IMM) Yes Yes Yes • Internet-based access to WWW resources Yes Yes Yes • Computer mediated communication (CMC). Yes Yes Yes No

Fifth Generation CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONAL MODELS OF VARIABLE DISTANCE EDUCATION HIGHLY ADVANCED FLEXIBILITY COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REFINED INTERACTIVE APPROACHING ZERO DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Time Place Pace MATERIALS DELIVERY THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL • Interactive multimedia Yes Yes Yes • Internet-based access to WWW resources Yes Yes Yes • CMC, using automated response systems Yes Yes Yes • Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Yes Yes Yes

Ask a question/ send an email NO Incoming “new” admin question from student Search / Match USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Previous Questions Previous Answers “Immediate” admin feedback to student YES Trigger USQ staff member – “New Answer” 5 th Generation Application

Metadata Schema Model NO Duty Tutor Incoming “new” academic question from student Search / Match “Immediate” academic feedback to student Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Questions <meta tags> Previous Answers <meta tags> New Answer YES Trigger 5 th Generation Application

Fast, Flexible and Fluid The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”.

Organisational Inertia Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support.

Organisational Challenge Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale.

Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only) § London School of Economics and Political Science § University of Chicago § Carnegie Mellon University § Columbia University § Stanford University

Increasing Competition Britain’s e-University The Higher Education Funding Council and the Department of Education and Employment has asked Treasury to provide an extra £ 100 million (approx. AU$300 million) to fund the e-University.

Increasing Competition The Cambridge e-MBA Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001.

Fast, Flexible and Fluid? 791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule Requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. In 2000 that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.

Increasing Competition All. Learn (an e-learning partnership between Oxford University, Stanford University and Yale University) is offering 75 short courses in a dozen disciplines in the Fall Semester, starting 7 th October, 2002 http: //www. alllearn. org

Increasing Competition UCLA’s Online. Learning. net § has enrolled over 20, 000 students in 1, 700 online courses since 1996. § Has offered student discounts, refer a friend gift certificates, frequent flyer points, opportunities to win free tuition.

Increasing Competition General Motors University now offers an e. MBA to provide online learning to as many as 86, 000 GM salaried employees.

Increasing Competition IBM’s Mindspan Solutions workplace and training systems employs 3, 000 people to develop customised e-learning content for 900 clients in 57 countries. (Source: K Dearne (2002), The Australian IT)

Increasing Competition University of Phoenix Online has 37, 600 students. It made a profit of $31. 8 million in 2001, and a profit of $23. 6 million in the first six months of 2002. Source: The Economist (2002)

The Big Picture § Change is the only constant. § Growth is the only certainty.

Future Projections § A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4. 5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. § The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal http: //finance. news. com. au, 22 April 2000).

Future Projections § By 2005, e-learning will be the single most used application on the web. § Corporate investment in e-learning will grow from US$2. 1 billion in 2001 to US$33. 4 billion in 2005. (Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research, 2001).

The Global Lifelong Learning Economy What type of institutions will survive? Will your institution survive?

Enrolled Students USQ 2002 § § All students On-campus Off-campus (Australia) Off-campus (Overseas) 22, 024 5, 659 12, 010 4, 355 Note: Students studying solely online 714

USQ’s International Students 2002 § § § Singapore 1, 605 Malaysia 1, 198 Hong Kong 318 South Africa 204 United Arab Emirates 171 Japan 159 Pacific Islands 153 India 124 Canada 123 China 118 Germany 95 Total, incl. students from 95 other countries 5, 792

Bretten, Germany

Organisational Development In many universities the development of web-based initiatives is not systemic, but is often the result of random acts of innovation initiated by risktaking individual academics.

Organisational Development The implementation of education technologies including web-based applications at USQ is strategically planned, systematically integrated and institutionally comprehensive.

USQ: A guiding objective To be a leader in flexible learning and the use of information and communication technologies

Management Structure of Online Initiatives Faculties Academic Board Online Teaching Management Committee VCC Online Systems Management Committee Information Infrastructure and Services Committee Online Marketing Management Committee

XML (e. Xtensible Markup Language) RENDITIONS: Print STYLE SHEET: XSL Web CD DVD XSL XSL XML CONTENT REPOSITORY: INPUT: DTD (Document Type Definition) XML Editor

The PC-e. Phone

http: //www. usqonline. com. au

Using the Internet as a mode of delivery will not automatically improve student learning.

Laurillard (2002)…. . “ The academic world has called each new technological device – word processing, interactive video, hypertext, multimedia, the Webinto the service of the transmission model of learning. ”

The Potential of e-Learning § From transmission to transaction § From the independent learner to the inter-dependent learner

Communication Areas Content Areas Group Areas Student Areas

Computer Mediated Communication (CMC) There is a fundamental qualitative difference between a traditional oncampus tutorial and asynchronous written communication online.

Important Qualitative Difference Compared to the spontaneous and less structured nature of oral discourse, asynchronous discussion online engenders a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking based on the reflective and explicit nature of the written word.

Brown & Duguid (2000) emphasised the importance of regarding learning as a social act: “Practice is an effective teacher, and community of practice an ideal learning environment. ”

Relevant Instructional Design Theories § ZPD: Zone of proximal development (Vygotsky, 1978; 1981) § Reflective practitioner (Schon, 1987) § Communities of practice (Brown, Collins & Duguid, 1989) § Situated cognition (Lave & Wenger, 1991)

Lave & Wenger (1991) emphasised the importance of the social context in which the learner is immersed, and learning as legitimate peripheral participation in a community of practice.

In the online context, legitimate peripheral participation has become associated with the term “Lurker”. “One of the “silent majority” in an electronic forum; one who posts occasionally or not at all but is known to read the group's postings regularly. ” (The Jargon dictionary, 2002)

Is peripheral participation really legitimate? Are all lurkers illegitimate?

General Engagement Ratio of staff: student engagement in online teaching and learning. In course FET 8601, a ratio of 1: 8

Asynchronous Communication Engagement (ACE) Ratio of staff: student engagement in the discussion forum. In FET 8601, an ACE ratio of 1: 4

Student Participation Profiles § Proactive Workers § Peripheral Lurkers § Parsimonious Shirkers

Overview of Participation and Performance Student Sub. Groups Average Number: Discussion Board Hits Average Number: Messages Posted Average: GPA The Workers 193 38 5. 43 The Lurkers 129 13 5. 41 The Shirkers 36 4 4. 30

Outcome The academic performance of the lurkers was on average not much less than that of the workers, thereby supporting the notion of learning as legitimate peripheral participation.

The Future The success of the lurkers augurs well for the use of e-learning facilitated by intelligent databases and the flexibility inherent in interacting with virtual cohorts of students.

Metadata Schema Model NO Duty Tutor Incoming “new” academic question from student Search / Match “Immediate” academic feedback to student Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Questions <meta tags> Previous Answers <meta tags> New Answer YES Trigger 5 th Generation Application

th 5 Generation As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective student support will tend towards zero.

5 th Generation In effect, fifth generation distance provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost.

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001)

The e-Revolution “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. Marshall Mc. Luhan